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The dollar index fluctuates wide, Trump continues to pressure the Fed to cut interest rates this week
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The US dollar index fluctuates widely, and Trump continues to pressure the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this week's non-farm market hits." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On June 30, early trading in the Asian market on Monday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 97.25. Last Friday, the US dollar index fluctuated wide, but after Trump announced the end of trade negotiations with Canada, the US index plunged in the short term and turned to a decline, eventually closing down 0.05% to 97.25. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.2850%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.7480%. As global trade negotiations make progress, U.S. consumer confidence has increased, and market enthusiasm for safe-haven assets has cooled down. Spot gold continued to fall on Friday, falling below the $3260 mark during the session, and finally closed down 1.62%, closing at $3274.46/ounce, the second consecutive week of closing down; spot silver finally closed down 1.81% at $35.97/ounce. Oil prices continued to fall on Friday due to reports that OPEC+ planned to increase production in August. WTI crude oil fell sharply during the US session and fell to around $64, eventually closing down 0.34% to $64.41 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 0.54% to $66.24 per barrel. Oil prices fell by about 12% last week, the biggest single-week drop since March 2023.
Analysis of major currencies
Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 97.25. The dollar index fell after the Fed's preferred inflation indicator core PCE rose in May. The dollar continued to weaken, with the U.S. dollar index approaching Thursday's low of 97.00 and Michigan expectations, providing more insights into how consumers feel about the current situation. Technically, if the US dollar index falls below the recent support level of 96.70–96.90, it will go to the next support level 95.40–95.60.
Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends
1) Analysis of gold market trends
On the Asian session on Monday, gold trading around 3263.22. In the early trading of the Asian market on Monday, gold expanded to around $3,265. Precious metals fell to nearly a month low after the U.S.-China trade deal boosted risk appetite. Investors await the Fed's speech late Monday in search of new impetus.
2) Analysis of crude oil market trends
On the Asian session on Monday, crude oil trading around 64. The crude oil market plummeted last week, with light crude oil futures plunging 11.27% to $65.52, the biggest single-week drop since demand plummeted in 2020. OPEC+ increased production, evaporated geopolitical risk premiums, and weakened demand in major consumer areas jointly promoted the sell-off, indicating a structural shift to oversupply in the crude oil market.
Forex market trading reminder on June 30, 2025
① To be determined ECB holds a central bank forum
②09:30 China's official manufacturing PMI in June
③14:00 UK's first quarter GDP annual rate final value
④14:00 UK's first quarter current account
⑤15:00 Switzerland's June KOF economic leading indicator
⑥16:30 UK's central bank mortgage loan license
⑦20:00 Germany The initial monthly rate of the CPI in June
⑧21:45 US Chicago PMI in June
⑨22:00 US Federal Reserve Bostic delivered a speech
22:30 US Dallas Fed Business Activity Index in June
01:00 US Federal Reserve Goulsby delivered a speech
03:00 ECB President Lagarde made a speech
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