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金融行业的佼佼者
认证最优金牌级别
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market analysis

The big non-farm farms are coming in June, and the ECB forum is about to be held

Wonderful introduction:

Spring flowers will bloom! If you have ever experienced winter, then you will have spring! If you have dreams, then spring will definitely not be far away; if you are giving, then one day you will have flowers blooming in the garden.

Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: June's non-farm generation is www.xmh100.coming, and the ECB Forum is about to be held." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

XM foreign exchange market prospect: June non-agricultural market is www.xmh100.coming, the ECB Forum is about to be held

XM foreign exchange market prospect: The importance of economic data to be released this week is from high to low: the US June non-agricultural employment report, the ECB Sintra Forum, and the euro zone June CPI data. Next, we will interpret it one by one.

▲XM chart

This Thursday at 20:30, the U.S. Department of Labor Statistics Bureau will release the U.S. non-farm employment report for June. Under normal circumstances, the non-farm employment report is released on Fridays every week, and this week is affected by the U.S. Independence Day holiday, and the release time is one day in advance. Focus on the new non-agricultural employment population data in the report, with the previous value of 139,000 people and the expected value of 110,000 people, which is relatively low. According to experience, when the non-agricultural employment population is more than 200,000, the market optimism increases, and the US dollar index is boosted; when the non-agricultural employment population is less than 150,000, the market sentiment is more pessimistic, and the US dollar index is impacted. The expected value of this data is less than 150,000 people, and the probability of negative for the US dollar index is relatively high. The trends of the stock market can be forward-looking at changes in US labor data. In June, the three major U.S. stock indexes all rose, with an increase of between 3 and 6%, which means that the US's operating environment and economic prospects are showing signs of improvement. Based on this judgment, the labor market in June is relatively optimistic, and there is a possibility that the new non-agricultural employment report will be higher than the previous value of 139,000 people.

▲XM Picture

This Monday to Wednesday, the ECB will hold the Central Bank 2025 Forum in Sintra, Portugal, with the theme of "Adaptation to Changes: Macroeconomic Changes and Policy Response". During the US session on Monday, European Central Bank Governor Lagarde will give an opening speech, focusing on his speech on the future economic development prospects of the euro zone. If his attitude is pessimistic, it may impact the euro. During the European session on Tuesday, ECB Vice Governor Jindos will give a keynote speech on the theme of "The Macroeconomic Impact of Changes in the Eurozone Labor Market". In the second half of Tuesday, there will be roundtable forums for central bank presidents from various countries, including Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, ECB Governor Lagarde, and central bank presidents such as the United Kingdom, Japan, and South Korea. Focus on the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. If his speech designs content such as the US economic outlook, monetary policy changes, etc., it may cause violent fluctuations in the US dollar index. There will be keynote speeches from senior ECB officials all day on Wednesday, and the most popular one is still the speech by Vice President Jindos, whose theme is "Non-bank financial intermediaries, liquidity and their prudent handling."

▲XM chart

At 17:00 this Tuesday, the European Statistics Office will announce the initial value of the euro zone's June CPI annual rate, with the previous value of 1.9%, and the expected value is 2%, with a slight increase. The initial value of the core CPI annual rate in the euro zone in June was announced at the same time, with the previous value of 2.4%, and no expected value has been released. CPI data is an important basis for the ECB to make monetary policy decisions. If the CPI data rises steadily, the ECB tends to suspend interest rate cuts; if the CPI data continues to decline, the ECB will accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts. 2% is the standard for measuring the health of CPI data. When CPI data is near this standard, it means that monetary policy does not need to be adjusted. In the past two years, the CPI data in the euro zone has continued to decline, and the macro economy has a risk of recession, so the ECB has adopted a policy of vigorous and high-frequency interest rate cuts. However, from a trend perspective, the core CPI data in the eurozone has not stopped falling, with the data in May plummeting from 2.7% to 2.4%, and it is possible to continue to decline in June. Based on this judgment, the European Central Bank's loose monetary policy is likely to continue and the euro will suffer a negative impact.

XM risk warning, disclaimer, special statement: The market is risky, so be cautious when investing. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not regard this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' views may change and updates will not be notified separately.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: The big non-farm farms are www.xmh100.coming in June, and the ECB Forum is about to be held" is carefully www.xmh100.compiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!

Due to the author's limited ability and time constraints, some content in the article still needs to be discussed and studied in depth. Therefore, in the future, I will go to the following questionsResearch and discussion on extensibility:

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The big non-farm farms are coming in June, and the ECB forum is about to be held

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Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

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market analysis

The big non-farm farms are coming in June, and the ECB forum is about to be held

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for a Reason