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The dollar index has stabilized temporarily, Powell does not rule out the possibility of interest rate cuts in July
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: The US dollar index has temporarily stabilized, and Powell does not rule out the possibility of interest rate cuts in July." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On July 2, in the early trading of the Asian market on Wednesday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 96.68. On Tuesday, the US dollar index fell first and then rose, and fell nearly 96 mark during the session, and then rebounded before the US session, but failed to return to above 97, and finally closed down 0.14% to 96.64; the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.2443%, and the 2-year US Treasury yield closed at 3.785%. As Trump's "Big and US bill" was passed in the Senate, and the July 9 trade tariff suspension deadline is getting closer, market demand for safe-haven. Spot gold rose more than 1% during the day, and once rushed above the $3350 mark during the session, and finally closed up 1.08%, closing at $3338.92/oz; spot silver finally closed down 0.2% at $36.01/oz. As investors digest positive demand indicators, the two oils rebounded. WTI crude oil once rushed above $65 during the session, but failed to stand firm and finally closed up 0.78% to $64.86 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 0.93% to $67.00 per barrel.
Analysis of major currencies
Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 96.68. At the end of the second quarter of 2025, the overall performance of the US dollar continued to weaken. The Wall Street Journal pointed out that the US dollar has fallen by more than 5% since early April, and according to some analytical statistics, the cumulative decline of the US dollar index against a basket of major currencies has reached about 12% since mid-February. At the beginning of the third quarter, this trend continued, with strong market bearish sentiment and the weak pattern of the US dollar was initially established. Technically, the US dollar index is currently hovering around 96.85 andThe intraday low of 96.38 rebounded and retested the wedge lower boundary, but is still well below the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) and is currently at 98.20. This continued rejection of EMA highlights the intensity of the current downward trend. Break below the wedge indicates that bearish pressure may accelerate with no sign of an immediate reversal.
Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends
1) Analysis of gold market trends
Which trading was held in Asian trading, gold trading was around 337.39. Trump's tax cut bill ignited a risk aversion boom, and the Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate cuts has heated up again. The gold market ushered in a new round of upward boom in early July 2025. Spot gold prices soared more than 1% on Tuesday, hitting the highest level since June 24 at $3,357.82/ounce, closing at $3,338.77/ounce, up for two consecutive trading days.
2) Analysis of crude oil market trend
On Wednesday, crude oil trading was around 64.83. As investors evaluate the development of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, WTI prices fell. Meanwhile, traders are cautiously waiting for the OPEC+ meeting to decide on the group's production policy in August. U.S. officials said Iran was ready to mine in the Strait of Hormuz last month after Israel launched an attack, but the mines were never deployed. Oil traders will closely monitor whether Iran's near-nuclear bomb-grade uranium stockpile has been exhausted and whether its move to cut off www.xmh100.communication with officials from the United Nations (UN) main monitoring agency will trigger a new round of attacks in the United States.
Foreign exchange market trading reminder on July 2, 2025
①17:00Eurozone May unemployment rate
②19:30Number of layoffs for challengers in the United States in June
③20:15Urban ADP in the United States in JuneNumber
④22:30 EIA crude oil inventories in the week from the United States to June 27
⑤22:30 EIA Cushing crude oil inventories in the week from the United States to June 27
⑥22:30 EIA strategic oil reserve inventories in the week from the United States to June 27
The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: The US dollar index has temporarily stabilized, and Powell does not rule out the possibility of interest rate cuts in July". It was carefully www.xmh100.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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