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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
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荣获2018年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获 Shares Magazine 的 UK Forex Awards 2017 颁赠
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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2016年最佳外汇经纪商
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2015年最佳本地客户服务
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Global Brands Magazine 颁赠
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2015最佳金融交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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COLWMA 2024年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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FX168于2020年12月颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2016最佳本土 客户服务
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中东和北非地区（MENA）增长最快的经纪商
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2015年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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荣获 The Trading Show 2024年非洲 Africa Fintech 峰会颁赠
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荣获2024年迪拜 Forex Traders Summit 颁赠
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2024年埃及 Smart Vision 峰会颁赠
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投查查于2024年颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2022年颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
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World Finance 2021颁发
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
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荣获2018年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获 Shares Magazine 的 UK Forex Awards 2017 颁赠
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荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2017
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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2016年最佳外汇经纪商
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2015年最佳本地客户服务
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Global Brands Magazine 颁赠
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2015最佳金融交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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金融行业的佼佼者
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2014年首届亚军
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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COLWMA 2024年颁赠
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023欧洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023澳大拉西亚最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023拉丁美洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023中东最佳外汇经纪商奖
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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FX168于2020年12月颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2016最佳本土 客户服务
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中东和北非地区（MENA）增长最快的经纪商
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2015年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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荣获 The Trading Show 2024年非洲 Africa Fintech 峰会颁赠
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荣获2024年中东地区 Brokersview 颁赠
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荣获2024年中东地区 Brokersview 颁赠
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荣获2024年阿曼 Smart Vision 峰会颁赠
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荣获2024年迪拜外汇博览会颁赠
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荣获2024年迪拜 Forex Traders Summit 颁赠
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2024年埃及 Smart Vision 峰会颁赠
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投查查于2024年颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2022年颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
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荣获 Shares Magazine 的 UK Forex Awards 2017 颁赠
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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Global Brands Magazine 颁赠
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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金融行业的佼佼者
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认证最优金牌级别
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2014年首届亚军
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market analysis
The weak rebound of the US dollar index is difficult to sustain, and non-agricultural weakness may trigger new selling pressure
Wonderful introduction:
Walk out of the thorns, there is a bright road covered with flowers; when you reach the top of the mountain, you will see the cloudy mountain scenery like green clouds. In this world, a star falls and cannot dim the starry sky, a flower withers and cannot desolate the whole spring.
Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: The weak rebound of the US dollar index is difficult to sustain, and non-agricultural weakness may trigger new selling pressure." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Asian Market Review
On Tuesday, the US dollar index fell first and then rose, and fell nearly 96 mark during the session, and then rebounded before the US session, but failed to return to above 97. As of now, the US dollar quote
Tariff Policy Development:
①Foreign Media: US officials seek to narrow the scope of the trade agreement and strive to reach an agreement before July 9. ② It is reported that India is seeking to reach a temporary trade agreement with the United States this week. US Treasury Secretary Besent: The trade agreement with India is "very close." ③Trump: Do not consider extending the deadline for tariff negotiations on July 9; doubting whether an agreement can be reached with Japan, Japan may face 30% or 35% tariffs. ④Japanese media: The United States will give priority to India in tariff negotiations and deal with Japan's issues later.
Governors of major central banks around the world have stated:
ECB President Lagarde: The task has not been announced to be www.xmh100.completed, but the goal has been achieved. Will not promise future interest rate paths; Bank of England Governor Bailey: Monetary policy is still restrictive and will continue to be tightened; Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda: Potential inflation is lower than the price target, and the current interest rate is lower than the neutral level; Bank of Korea Governor Lee Changyong: The Bank of Korea continues to be in a loose cycle. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: It is impossible to assert whether it is too early to cut interest rates in July, and no meeting is ruled out.
Vance "breaks the deadlock with one vote", the U.S. Senate passed the "Big and American" bill, and the House of Representatives is expected to be this weekvote.
The U.S. job vacancy for JOLTs unexpectedly rose to its highest since November last year in May, with traders slightly slashing expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut.
The US ISM manufacturing PMI shrank for four consecutive months in June, employment contracted again, and the price index accelerated.
Trump threatened to let DOGE review the subsidies received by Musk and his www.xmh100.company. Musk responded: All are cut, just now; Trump also said he did not want to own electric cars because it might explode, and threatened to "consider expel" Musk.
The Trump administration officially shut down the US Agency for International Development.
The eurozone manufacturing PMI hit a 34-month high, Germany continued its recovery momentum, and France was under pressure.
Summary of institutional views
Fanong Credit Forecast Non-agricultural: Only when the number of new people is X million will the Federal Reserve consider July policy
Number of new jobs: 100,000; unemployment rate: 4.3%; average hourly wage monthly rate: 0.3%
So far, the labor market has performed well, which is enough to support the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates unchanged, but we believe that there are still some signs of weakness under the surface of the market. We initially expect the economy to cool further in June, with the number of new non-farm employment slowing to 100,000 from 139,000 in May, and the unemployment rate will rise slightly from 4.2% to 4.3%. We also expect average hourly wages to grow by 0.3% month-on-month, with a slight decrease in year-on-year growth rate from 3.9% to 3.8%, although our forecast is nearing its end.
In summary, we believe that employment data that meets expectations is not enough to prompt the Fed to take immediate action. We believe that the cooling signs do leave room for further monetary policy easing later this year, but we believe that most members of the Federal Reserve will seriously consider the July policy only if there is a clear downward surprise in the non-farm data, namely, 50,000 new jobs or less.
Citi: Can non-farms trigger another wave of US dollar selling?
We believe that the asymmetry of non-farm data remains unchanged: the selling rate of the US dollar when the non-farm data is lower than expected is much higher than when the non-farm data is stronger than when it exceeds expectations. We expect the unemployment rate to jump to 4.4%, and if non-farm data www.xmh100.come true, we expect the US dollar to suffer a widespread sell-off, and the yen/CHF/Euro will outperform the market on the same day. But follow-up may be limited due to leveraged shorts holding the dollar, possible profit-taking losses before the July 4 holiday, and employment reports are not enough to trigger the Fed's interest rate cut in July. This may require another dovish adjustment from the Fed after that to enable the EUR to reach or break through our recent forecast 1.20 target.
JPMorgan Chase: Five scenarios for non-agricultural areas - Analysis of the impact on US stocks, US bonds and policy paths
1. Number of new jobs >14.5 - [Probability 5%]
This tail scenario will trigger the market to rethink the trajectory of the US economic growth. If the www.xmh100.company has this confidence, it is likely to be tariffsA www.xmh100.combination of expected reductions and tariff costs are passed on to consumers' expectations. Our report shows that after inflation-adjusted, U.S. consumers who currently have more cash are generally resilient www.xmh100.compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. U.S. Treasury yields are expected to soar, which may curb stock returns in a few trading days as volatility soars, but ultimately this is still a positive for the stock market. The S&P 500 is expected to rise by 1%-1.5%.
2. The number of new jobs is between 125,000 and 145,000 - [probability 25%]
This is another positive result for US stocks, reflecting that the impact of the trade war is lower than expected. While we think the single-day gains in U.S. stocks are the second strongest in these scenarios, this may be the best medium-term result because it will be the "blond girl" effect. At the same time, this will be the first step to restart economic growth, although the inflation stimulus effect is small. The S&P 500 is expected to rise by 0.75%-1.25%.
3. The number of new jobs is between 105,000 and 125,000 - [Probability 40%]
This is our basic scenario, that is, as long as the number of new jobs is higher than 100,000, the US stock market will continue to rise. Although we think this is a positive one, it is unlikely that even if the data is close to the lower edge of the range, it is likely to trigger a substantial shift in market sentiment, especially with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell saying that the tariff impact is expected to be reflected in the June-August data. The S&P 500 is expected to rise by 0.5%-1%.
4. The number of new jobs is between 85,000 and 105,000 - [probability 25%]
This is the first downward scenario that has not met expectations. Given that the trade agreement is about to be announced, the results are difficult to predict. If the United States signs an agreement with its top ten trading partners before the non-farm data, then the non-farm data may not matter. That being said, the possibility of a unified 10% tariff on multiple trading partners increases some of the risks. If there are not many details of the trade agreement, or if the agreement is not reached before the non-farm, even if the published non-farm data is at the upper edge of the range, it will be enough to turn the market back to trading recession/stagflation. The S&P 500 is expected to fall 0.25%-1.5%.
5. The number of new jobs is <85,000 - [probability 5%]
In this situation, it is best for the market to believe that an economic recession is possible, while the worst is stagflation, which is unlikely to be introduced at that time. While lowering effective tariffs may eventually offset their impact, the risk faced by the economy is that the new tax/budget bill cannot form enough fiscal thrust to pull the economy out of the downward trend. And given the size of the bill, additional financial support measures are unlikely to pass before the economy falls into a perceived recession. This is www.xmh100.completely contrary to the "Blonde" theory. If the CPI data on July 15 is significantly higher, this impact will intensify. The S&P 500 is expected to fall 2%-3%.
Dutch International Bank: If the "Liberation Day tariff" is implemented again, foreign exchange will become a reactionThe most sensitive asset class
The US dollar continues to decline slightly in a less volatile environment. Regarding volatility, it is worth noting that the trading volatility levels of stocks and bonds fall more significantly than forex. In the www.xmh100.coming months, the implied volatility of the euro/dollar and U.S. dollar/yen will remain above 8% and 10% respectively, probably because the market believes that if some "liberation day tariffs" are re-implemented in July, foreign exchange will become the most sensitive asset class. It is reported that the EU is ready to accept that most of its exports to the United States are subject to 10% tariffs, and Washington appears to be trying to put pressure on Japan to open up its U.S. rice export market. This may explain why the US dollar/JPY leads the US dollar to fall overnight.
The tax reform bill on President Trump’s passing in Congress and its impact on U.S. fiscal situation was not seen as a major market driver this week. The yields of long-term U.S. Treasury bonds remain sluggish, and the interest rate spreads between Treasury bonds and swaps remain stable. Perhaps more news about weak demand for Treasury auctions and rising inflation, or concerns about the president's appointment of dovish people to replace Fed Chairman Powell, can make Treasury back into the focus of financial markets.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: The weak rebound of the US dollar index is difficult to sustain, and non-agricultural weakness may trigger new selling pressure". It is carefully www.xmh100.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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