Eurozone bond yields decline, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on July 3

Global Market Review

1. European and American market trends

The three major U.S. stock index futures rose, Dow futures rose 0.07%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.03%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.03%. The German DAX index rose 0.10%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.41%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.10%, and the European Stoke 50 index fell 0.14%.

2. Market news interpretation

Eurozone bond yields fell, and the market focused on the United States and the United Kingdom

⑴ On July 3, eurozone treasury yields fell on Thursday, focusing on events outside the eurozone, especially the U.S. employment data released later that day, and the UK Treasury market after a sharp sell-off the day before. ⑵ German 10-year Treasury yield fell 4 basis points on the day to 2.58%, Kenneth Broux, head of corporate research, foreign exchange and interest rates at Societe Generale, said it was a reversal of "a UK-induced sell-off and a soar of more than 2.60%" on Wednesday. ⑶Eurozone bonds were affected by the UK Treasury sell-off, driven by concerns about the UK’s public finances and the future of Finance Minister Rachel Reeves. ⑷ Germany's 10-year government bond yield, as the euro zone benchmark, rose 5 basis points on Wednesday. ⑸ British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said late Wednesday that Reeves will be "serving for a long time". UK Treasury yields fell by about 8 basis points on Thursday. ⑹The focus of the global bond market on Thursday was the US non-farm employment data to be released at 20:30 Beijing time. Analysts expect labor market to continue in JuneThe slowdown is expected to rise to 4.3% above a three-and-a-half-year high as economic uncertainty brought by Trump administration policies has curbed hiring. ⑺Broux said the data will help show whether the market is overpriced on more Fed rate cuts this year. ⑻ He also said that although U.S. inflation data is the most important data release later this month, if the employment data is higher than expected, it will "strengthen the hawkish position in the FOMC (Feder rate setting agency, represented by Fed Chairman Powell)" and "strengthen their belief that they are waiting to assess the impact of tariffs." ⑼The market currently expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by at least two 25 basis points this year, which may start in September and have a third rate cut of about 50%. ⑽The ECB is more aggressive than the Fed in terms of interest rate cuts, as inflation is controlled and growth is weaker, and its rate cut cycle is www.xmh100.coming to an end. The market expects the ECB to cut interest rates only once in this cycle, possibly before the end of the year. ⑿In the United States, investors are also paying attention to US President Trump's tax cuts and spending bill, which was pushed by House Republicans to the final vote in the early hours of Thursday. ⒀Back to Europe, Italy's 10-year Treasury yield fell 5 basis points to 3.49% on Thursday, after a 6 basis points increase the previous day. France's 10-year government bond yield fell by 4 basis points, after rising by 6 basis points the day before.

ECB officials warn that the euro's strength could pose dangers

According to the record of the ECB's June meeting, officials highlighted the potential dangers that the euro's appreciation poses to exporters. At that meeting, the ECB implemented its eighth rate cut. The minutes of the meeting show that the ECB believes that trade uncertainty has cast a shadow on the outlook for the economies of the 20 countries in the euro zone, especially its impact on investment. "Higher tariffs and the recent appreciation of the euro should put pressure on exports," the minutes said. The remarks stress that while the euro's nearly 14% gain this year helps curb inflation, further gains could pull inflation below the target of 2% and damage the www.xmh100.competitiveness of www.xmh100.companies selling products overseas. ECB Deputy Governor Jindos previously said that for the ECB, it would be "a troublesome" to rise to 1.20 in Europe and the United States.

The Japan Meteorological Agency has issued a red strong earthquake alarm

According to the Japan Meteorological Agency, at 16:13 local time on the 3rd, a magnitude 5.5 earthquake occurred in the waters near the Togala Islands in Kagoshima Prefecture, Japan. The Japan Meteorological Agency has issued a red strong earthquake alarm. Since June 21, the Japan Meteorological Agency has observed more than 1,000 earthquakes in this area with a magnitude 1 or above. The Japan Meteorological Agency held an emergency press conference on the recent frequent earthquakes on the 2nd, saying that it is impossible to predict when the earthquake activity will end, reminding local residents to pay attention to safety and be prepared to take shelter at any time. The Tugala Island is located in the southern part of Kagoshima Prefecture and consists of 12 islands, 7 of which are inhabited.

The pound faces new downside risks due to fiscal concerns

Mitsubishi UF analyst Lee Hardman in aThe report said the pound faces a new round of decline after a heightened UK political uncertainty and new fiscal concerns triggered a sell-off on Wednesday. British Prime Minister Stamer initially failed to support Chancellor Reeves in Parliament on Wednesday. Previously, due to pressure from some Labor MPs, the government made a 180-degree turn on welfare reform. Hardman said the big turn in policy has weakened confidence in the Labor leadership, and also has doubts about the party's seriousness in fiscal policy rectification. "Unless confidence is restored quickly, the pound will continue to trade on a weaker basis than we expect."

U.S. Treasury Secretary Becent talks about the Fed's chairmanship position and budget

⑴U.S. Treasury Secretary Becent Becent said that there are many strong candidates for the Fed's chairmanship position. ⑵He did not make a specific response to the dismissal of Powell. ⑶Best also said that he hopes to see a reasonable budget

Digital tax and dairy supply management in Canada's trade negotiations

⑴Canada canceled the digital service tax imposed on US technology www.xmh100.companies this week to continue trade negotiations with the United States, hoping to reach an agreement by July 21. ⑵ Canadian Parliament strongly supports the dairy supply management system and legislation prevents the system from becoming a trade negotiation issue. ⑶ Since the 1970s, Canada has strictly controlled the supply of dairy products, eggs and poultry by restricting production and imposing high tariffs. ⑷ Sylvain Charlebois, a food industry analyst at Dalhous University, said Trump's remarks can almost create political chaos in Canada. ⑸ The Canadian supply management system was once the crux of trade negotiations during Trump's first term. It withstood the test of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in 2020, but in March 2025, Trump threatened to impose reciprocal tariffs on Canadian dairy products. ⑹USMCA provides limited tax-free quotas for US dairy products, and tariffs on products exceeding the quota may exceed 200%. The United States has challenged Canada to allocate dairy products for many years without success. ⑺Although some people believe that the abolition of the digital service tax would make Canada appear weak, the tax is little known in Canada and has not caused any political turmoil. ⑻ Parliamentary amends legislation to prevent supply management from becoming a negotiating issue, but trade experts say they cannot stop negotiating discussions. ⑼Tyler McCann, managing director of the Canadian Institute of Agriculture and Food Policy, believes that the Canadian government will take necessary measures to manage supply to reach an agreement, and many farmers mistakenly believe the bill is binding. ⑽The U.S. Department of www.xmh100.commerce and the White House did not respond to requests for www.xmh100.comment, and a spokesperson for Canadian Treasury Secretary LeBron said the federal government will support the Canadian dairy industry and the supply management system will not be put on the negotiating table.

Russian oil and gas budget revenue fell

⑴ On July 3, 2025, data from the Russian Ministry of Finance showed that Russia's oil and gas revenue in June fell 33.7% year-on-year to 494.8 billion rubles (about 6.29 billion US dollars), the lowest level since January 2023. ⑵ Oil and gas revenue has always been the most important source of cash for the Russian government, accounting for about four of the total federal budget revenue.One in. ⑶ In addition to the year-on-year decline, oil and gas revenue in June also fell by 3.5% www.xmh100.compared with May. ⑷ In the first half of the year, oil and gas revenue fell by nearly 17% year-on-year to 4.73 trillion rubles. ⑸Russia has significantly increased its national defense and security expenditure since February 2022. ⑹In 2025, Russia increased its proportion of defense expenditure to 6.3%, and defense expenditure accounted for 32% of the total federal budget expenditure in 2025. ⑺The Ministry of Finance initially planned to earn 10.94 trillion rubles from oil and gas sales this year, but lowered its expectations to 8.32 trillion rubles due to the decline in oil prices. ⑻On last year, oil and gas revenue reached 11.13 trillion rubles.

Europe credit bond default costs decline

⑴ As global trade concerns ease, the cost of providing defaults for euro credit bonds is reduced. ⑵ Investor sentiment has improved as the United States signs trade agreements with more countries. ⑶ Deutsche Bank strategy analysts pointed out in the report that the Vietnam trade agreement has enhanced the hope of reaching an agreement between the EU and the United States. ⑷ S&P Global Market Finance Data shows that the iTraxxEurope Crossover index, which tracks euro junk bond credit default swaps, fell 1 basis point to 282 basis points.

Freight transport on the Moselle River in Germany was blocked

⑴On July 3, 2025, freight transport on the Moselle River in western Germany was interrupted due to an accident. ⑵The accident involved a passenger ship, causing damage to the lock, and the river police announced a blockade of the river section on Thursday. ⑶The Moselle River (called the Moselle River in France) is an important channel for transporting grains and rapeseed between Germany and France. ⑷ Wednesday's accident damaged the lock in St. Adgonde between Koblenz and Trier, causing transportation to be interrupted. ⑸ The ship cannot pass through the St. Adgonde lock, whether it is sailing upstream or downstream. ⑹ On Thursday, technicians were checking the locks and it was not possible to assess the extent of damage or determine the length of time the shipping was affected. ⑺The river was closed in December due to a lock accident in Muden, southern Koblenz, and did not reopen until February as long repairs were required.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the New York Stock Exchange

Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD fell and is now at 1.1787, a drop of 0.07%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the price of (Euro-USD) rose at its most recent day-to-day level, dominated the main bullish trend in the short term and traded along the bias line, supported by its continuous trading above the EMA50. On the other hand, we noticed that (RSI) began to show negative signals after reaching overbought levels, slowing the gains of the last pair of currencies.

GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell and is now at 1.3619, a drop of 0.16%. Before the market in New York City, (GBPUSD) price fell slightly on the last trading day in an attempt to gain bullish momentum, which could help it surpass the negative pressure of the EMA50, after the pair successfully revised its short-term major bullish trend, relying on a key support level of 1.3590 as it trades along a bias line, the stability of this support provides positive momentum, helping it rebound higher with a positive signal from (RSI) after reaching oversold levels.

Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold fell, now at 3339.96, a drop of 0.51%. Before the New York Stock Market, the price of (gold) fluctuated in the last intraday trading, and after reaching the overbought level, the (RSI) showed negative signals. On the other hand, the price was affected by the price exit from the bearish correction channel range, which limits its short-term trading, leveraging the dynamic support represented by the exchange above the EMA50 to form a barrier indicating the stability of positive expectations.

Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 36.670, an increase of 0.39%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (silver) price expanded its gains on the last trading day, supported by trading above the EMA50, which represents a dynamic support, dominant in the main bullish trend and traded along a small slash on a short-term basis. On the other hand, we noticed that (RSI) has negative signals after reaching overbought levels, trying to get rid of this overbought situation and thus slowing down the price increase.

Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, now at 67.390, a drop of 0.09%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (crude oil) price rose at the last trading day level and began to recover after it successfully offloaded some obvious overbought conditions on the (RSI), opening the way to achieve more earnings, leveraging the dynamic support it represents on the exchange above the EMA50 to provide stability for the bullish trend in the upcoming period.

4. Institutional View

Citi: Tariff deadline may be "insignificant" for G10 Forex, but pay attention to Japan

Citi Foreign Exchange strategists believe that to a large extent, the upcoming July 9 tariff negotiation deadline may be "insignificant to G10 Forex"In view of the recent strengthening of the euro, they speculate that such news will be slightly positive for the euro, but not necessarily an important driving factor, as a lot of good news has been reflected in the euro price. "On the issue of Japan, Citi believes that the possibility of reaching a deal is declining given Trump's recent remarks. Citi said: "The risk of a hike in Japan's tariffs seems to be the highest. "The bank expects the United States and Japan to climb to 150 this summer, and then fall below 140 later this year. As the Bank of Japan expects to implement policies to normalize, the yen will return to its strength.

The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Eurozone bond yields decline, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on July 3" was carefully www.xmh100.compiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thank you for your support!

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