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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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认证最优金牌级别
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2014年首届亚军
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2016最佳本土 客户服务
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中东和北非地区（MENA）增长最快的经纪商
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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market analysis
Weak employment data and political tensions drag the dollar down
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Market Analysis]: Weak employment data and political tensions drag down the US dollar." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Tuesday (August 5), the US dollar index (DXY) rose slightly, but below the 99.00 mark. Weak U.S. jobs and manufacturing data, dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions around the BRICS countries have increased restrictions on the dollar's sharp rise.
The market is currently focusing on the upcoming ISM service industry PMI data and speeches by Fed voters Susan Collins and Lisa Cook to further clarify the trend of the dollar.
Soft employment data triggered a US dollar fall
The non-farm employment (NFP) report last Friday showed that only 73,000 new jobs were added in July, far below the expected 110,000 and significantly lower than the 147,000 revised in June. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, in line with expectations, but indicates that the labor market is cooling. Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 48.0, marking the second consecutive month of contraction in the industry. These weak economic data have exacerbated market expectations of the Fed's easing policy and further pressured the dollar.
The Fed's expectation of a rate cut has heated up
Interest rate futures show that the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September is 84%, and the market expects a total rate cut of up to 60 basis points by the end of the year. San Francisco Federal Reserve Chairman Mary Daly supported the shift, saying weak labor markets and weaker inflation risks were justification for starting easing.
In addition, Daly said interest rate cuts may exceed two times in 2025, and upcoming speeches by Fed voters Susan Collins and Lisa Cook may further affect market expectations.
PoliticsTurbulent trade concerns with BRICS countries have increased uncertainty
The sudden resignation of Fed director Adriana Kugler and rumors of internal tensions have shaken investor confidence and added uncertainty to the dollar's outlook.
At the same time, the United States' geopolitical pressure on the BRICS countries is intensifying. The threat of U.S. sub-sanctions on India's purchase of Russian crude oil (1.7 million barrels a day) has increased pressure on the Indian rupee, and markets have begun to speculate whether the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will be www.xmh100.committed to defending the US dollar/Indian rupee level of 88.00.
Similarly, the U.S. imposes 50% tariffs on Brazil and 30% tariffs on South Africa, which has sparked concerns about escalating trade tensions. However, currencies such as the Brazilian Real and South African rand remained solid due to global interest in arbitrage trading in high-yield currencies. The bigger question is whether the U.S.-China trade easing, which is scheduled to expire on August 12, will continue. If this easing breaks down, further www.xmh100.complicates the prospects of the dollar.
Technical Analysis
On the 4-hour chart, the US dollar index (DXY) remains above the uptrend line, maintaining a series of highs and lows since July 23. After a sharp decline from the 100.25 high, the index stabilized above the 50-day moving average (98.82) and the 100-day moving average (98.51), which are currently used as dynamic support. The rebound from 98.60 is consistent with the uptrend line, indicating that buyers still have support at key technical levels. However, the horizontal resistance of 99.19 limits the upward space, and multiple breakthrough attempts failed. If the U.S. dollar index breaks through and closes above 99.19, it may be retested 99.68. On the contrary, if it falls below 98.60, it may trigger a deeper correction to 98.14 or 97.64.
Market drivers outlook
The ISM service industry PMI is expected to be 51.5 in July, which may provide a short-term catalyst for the US dollar. If the data is stronger than expected, it may support a slight rebound in the US dollar index, but the increase may be limited in the 99.00-99.25 range. Meanwhile, changes in the Fed's leadership and U.S. trade policy toward BRICS countries will continue to affect investor sentiment and the performance of the dollar.
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