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Even if the dollar weakens, it cannot be saved? Pound is hit hard by expectations of interest rate cuts, shorts are targeting

Wonderful Introduction:

If the sea loses the rolling waves, it will lose its majesty; if the desert loses the dancing of flying sand, it will lose its magnificence; if life loses its real journey, it will lose its meaning.

Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange]: Can't you save the weakening of the US dollar? The pound was hit hard by the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the bears have targeted the target." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On Thursday (August 7), at 19:00 Beijing time, the Bank of England will announce the results of the August interest rate resolution. The market generally expects it to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.0%, which will be the fifth interest rate cut since August 2024, marking that the UK has officially entered a "loose cycle." Although the overall situation of interest rate cuts has been decided, the Monetary Policy www.xmh100.committee (MPC) has been in fierce disagreement: the key to this resolution is not only the extent of the rate cut, but also the forward-looking guidance in the policy statement: if the "gradually cautious" expression is removed or the wording of weakening inflation expectations is reduced, it may send a stronger dovish signal and further suppress the pound exchange rate.

The pound against the US dollar and pound against the Japanese yen are under pressure on the Bank of England's dovish interest rate cut expectations, and the weakening of the US dollar provides short-term support.

The pound rebounded before the Bank of England's (BOE) meeting, mainly driven by the weakening of the US dollar; but the market generally expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.0%, whether in voting distribution or forward guidance, if the meeting releases dovish signals, the downside risks of the pound against the US dollar and pound against the Japanese yen may further intensify.

At the same time, the decline in the US dollar was due to the fact that non-farm employment data were lower than expected and the weak ISM service industry data, coupled with the statements of Minneapolis Fed Chairman Neil Kashkari on www.xmh100.comBC, triggering speculations on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. Although the service industry's inflation remains stubborn, traders are paying close attention to subsequent signals - both pound pairs are currently near key technology levels, and the change may be on the verge of breaking out.

The weakening trend of the US dollar continues, and the Bank of England's interest rate cut has become a key suppression of the pound.

The US dollar fell on Wednesday (August 6), and the pressure of internal interest rate cuts of the Federal Reserve continued to heat up. Kashkari's hints about rate cuts have been weakenedEmployment and service industry data are more substantial; despite the rising prices of ISM data services, Fed members have doubts about whether the inflation caused by tariffs is temporary. As economic data weakens, the logic behind interest rate cuts and the weakening of the US dollar is constantly strengthening.

From a technical perspective

The US dollar index, Euro-USD, Australian dollar and USD and Japanese yen all show that the US dollar has a bearish momentum: the US dollar index is weak above the 98 mark, and the RSI on the 2-day is less than 10 and enters the oversold range; the Euro-USD approaches the key 1.17, and it may require the US dollar index to fall below the 50-day moving average, around 97.89, which is currently potential support;

The Australian dollar rebounded above 0.655, but the 50-day and 20-day moving average www.xmh100.combined with the 0.6513 in the intensive trading area constitutes resistance;

The US dollar and Japanese yen temporarily stabilize above the low point of 146.62 of the bullish K-line www.xmh100.combination on Tuesday, or may have a brief rebound, but the probability of eventually falling below 146 is higher. Overall, before the Bank of England meeting and against the rising expectations of Fed interest rate cuts, the US dollar still has room for further weakness.

The Bank of England expects to cut interest rates clearly, and the market bets are further loosening

The Bank of England is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to 4%. The overnight index swap (OIS) market has fully priced the rate cut, and the price implies a dovish tendency. The 1-year OIS shows that it will cut interest rates by at least another 25 basis points in the next 12 months. Traders need to focus on the voting distribution of the UK MPC meeting on Thursday evening (August 7): If the number of votes supporting interest rate cuts increases, it may further suppress the pound, especially when superimposing dovish www.xmh100.comments.

In addition, before the New Zealand Fed meeting, New Zealand's inflation expectations are worth paying attention to: labor costs rose by 0.6% in the second quarter (0.5% higher than expected and 0.4% of the previous value), and CPI rose simultaneously; although the unemployment rate rose to 5.2% or supported interest rate cuts, continued inflation may force the New Zealand Fed to remain cautious.

From the Bank of England policy expectations and OIS pricing, the left panel shows the Bank of England interest rate, core CPI (annual rate 3.7%) and MPC voting count, pointing to a 25 basis point cut rate to 4.0% and further easing signal; the UK SONIAOIS curve on the right panel shows that the 1-month to 1-year interest rate is lower than the current central bank interest rate, confirming the market's expectations of multiple interest rate cuts - both supporting the judgment that the pound pound is under pressure against the US dollar due to the dovish tendency of the Bank of England.

Technical analysis of GBP versus the US dollar: The short-term rebound high may form, and the downside space is clear

Weekly perspective of GBP versus the US dollar: GBP versus the US dollar fell 4.7% from its July high, and half of the losses occurred during the period of last week's bearish engulfment of K-line pattern. Considering that most of the decline tendencies will be developed in the form of a total of three waves, the current decline (4.7%) is relatively shallow (8.4% since the 2023 high and 9.9% since the 2024 high), it may further decline in the next few weeks or months. Key support levels include 1.29 in the densely traded zone38, and April lows with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (slightly above 1.2700).

Daily perspective of GBP versus USD: Price is testing the resistance near the June low and 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3370, 20-day EMA (1.3392), 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (1.3420) form a key resistance zone with the downward trend line, and the bears may be laid out here. RSI is close to overbought, and although the short-term momentum is rising, it may form a daily high point due to momentum inertia.

The downward target is clear: In the near future, 1.32 and the 38.2% rise in the total increase since the May low are 1.3140; after falling below the focus will turn to the 1.30 mark and 1.2938; if it falls below 1.2900, it may fall below the 61.8% retracement level and 1.2700 above the April low.

Technical analysis of GBP versus Japanese yen: The momentum turns weaker, and the downward point is to the key position of 194

After GBP versus Japanese yen rose from April 184 to nearly 200 in July (with resistance in October 2024 high), it fell below the upward trend line and the price formed a lower shoulder, and bearish momentum accelerated. The current price is in a retracement stage, similar to the pound sterling and the US dollar, and the daily line may form a high point without trading volume due to kinetic inertia.

Technical aspects show that the 50-day moving average has become a resistance on Wednesday. When the price is close to the 20-day moving average and weekly trading volume-intensive area of 197.90, the shorts may enter the market and make the next wave of decline. The key downward target is 194, with the area superimposed on the 38.2% Fibonacci ratio, 200-day moving average and weekly line trading dense areas highlighting the downward risk.

The above content is all about "[XM Forex]: Can't you save the weakening of the US dollar? The pound is hit hard by the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the shorts have targeted the target position". It is carefully www.xmh100.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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Even if the dollar weakens, it cannot be saved? Pound is hit hard by expectations of interest rate cuts, shorts are targeting

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Even if the dollar weakens, it cannot be saved? Pound is hit hard by expectations of interest rate cuts, shorts are targeting

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