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market analysis
$3,400 is full of resistance, gold prospects are unpredictable
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange]: 3,400 US dollars are full of resistance, and the gold prospects are unpredictable." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Monday (August 11), the gold price (XAU/USD) encountered strong selling pressure and failed to effectively break through the key psychological threshold of $3,400. Gold once tried to climb during the day, but fell rapidly after not finding solid support. The demand for safe-haven gold is suppressed, mainly due to the shift in market sentiment, with both stock market and US futures generally rising, and risk appetite sentiment is heating up. Traders' focus has turned to the upcoming U.S.-Russian leaders' talks, which has fueled fluctuations in market sentiment.
Although current market sentiment is biased towards positive, the market's expectations that the Federal Reserve may restart interest rate cuts in September provide some support for gold. With the weakening of the U.S. labor market and the impact of inflation data, market expectations for interest rate cuts have gradually heated up.
However, the market is still concerned about whether the imminent tariff agreement will lead to aggravation of trade disputes, and these uncertainties continue to have an impact on the market. With the United States set to release inflation data (CPI and PPI) this week, the market is also waiting for guidance from these economic data to assess the future trend of gold.
Fundamentals
Within the uncertainty of the global economic environment, gold has attracted widespread attention as a traditional safe-haven asset. Recently, challenges faced by the global economy include but are not limited to global trade frictions, slowing U.S. economic growth and ongoing geopolitical risks.
The Federal Reserve's recent monetary policy remains an important support for the gold market. The weakness in non-farm employment data in July, especially as the labor market further deteriorated, has driven expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut. Fed officials also expressed concerns about insufficient inflation control and fragility in their labor markets in public speeches. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has recentlyThe speech mentioned that interest rate cuts may be necessary to ensure that the economy maintains growth and avoids recession. The market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates again in September to cope with potential economic slowdown pressures, which to some extent supports gold.
The US CPI and PPI data to be released this week will become the focus of market attention. These data will directly affect the Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations, which in turn affects the trend of the US dollar and the price of gold. If the data is weak, it may further deepen market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, thereby supporting the rise in gold prices.
Technical aspect
From the technical chart, gold prices encountered strong resistance in the US$3,400 area and failed to successfully break through this important price level. The price once tried to break through, but did not form a stable upward trend, but retreated quickly, which indicated that the market had strong selling pressure near the current price.
The current gold price is close to the middle track of the Bollinger Band ($3350.18), which indicates that the market is in a volatile consolidation stage. If the price breaks through $3,400 and stabilizes above this price, a wave of upward trend may be ushered in, and the target can be seen in the range of $3,450-3,500. However, if the price fails to break through the $3400 and falls back to the $3250 area, the downside risk remains.
MACD line shows that the upward energy of gold prices is relatively weak in the short term. Although there are signs of crossing between DIF (9.71) and DEA (5.91), the red column momentum is weak, which means that there is limited upward space for gold prices in the short term. The momentum of the current market is still not enough to support a strong breakthrough in gold, so we still need to be vigilant about the risk of pullbacks in the short term.
Prevention of market sentiment
The current gold market sentiment is www.xmh100.complex. On the one hand, the performance of the stock market and the US futures market has brought about market optimism, which has weakened the demand for safe-haven gold. On the other hand, global trade frictions, talks between the United States and Russia, and upcoming inflation data still put a lot of pressure on the market, and traders are highly alert to the uncertainty of the future economy.
Future Outlook
Bules Outlook:
From a technical perspective, if the gold price successfully breaks through the strong resistance level of US$3,400 and is stable in this area, it is expected that the gold price will open a new upward band. Given the general expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates in September and global political risks still exist, the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset will continue. Therefore, if the price exceeds $3400, the target can be seen in the range of $3450 to $3500.
Bell Outlook:
If the gold price fails to break through the $3,400 and continues to fall back to the $3,250 area, further downside risks may occur. Under this circumstance, gold will face strong technical retracement pressure, and the support level in the future will focus on important psychological barriers such as US$3,200 and US$3,150 in turn.
The above content is closedThe entire content of "[XM Forex]: The 3,400 US dollar has many resistances, and the gold prospects are unpredictable" was carefully www.xmh100.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
Due to the author's limited ability and time constraints, some content in the article still needs to be discussed and studied in depth. Therefore, in the future, the author will conduct extended research and discussion on the following issues:
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