Trusted by over 15 Million Traders
The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason
CATEGORIES
News
- 【XM Forex】--GBP/USD Analysis: Upward Trend Still in Its Early Stages
- 【XM Group】--AUD/USD Forex Signal: Path of Least Resistance is Downwards
- 【XM Market Analysis】--ETH/USD Forecast: Can ETH Break $4,000?
- 【XM Group】--AUD/USD Forex Signal: Pullback Likely Ahead of ADP Jobs Data
- 【XM Group】--USD/MXN Forecast: Near Key Levels
market analysis
Breakthroughs are brewing in the US dollar technology, and CPI data will ignite market sentiment
Wonderful introduction:
A clean and honest man is the happiness of honest people, a prosperous business is the happiness of businessmen, a punishment of evil and traitors is the happiness of chivalrous men, a good character and academic performance is the happiness of students, aiding the poor and helping the poor is the happiness of good people, and planting in spring and harvesting in autumn is the happiness of farmers.
Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Official Website]: The technical breakthrough of the US dollar is brewing, and CPI data will ignite market sentiment." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Before the US market on Tuesday (August 12), the US dollar index continued to fluctuate and consolidation pattern, showing a stable trend after a cumulative rebound of 0.4% for two consecutive trading days. The market is currently cautious, and traders are focusing on the upcoming U.S. CPI inflation data, which will provide important guidance for the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and may determine the short-term operation direction of the US dollar.
The market generally expects inflation pressure to heat up in July, with the overall annual rate of inflation expected to rise to 2.8% from 2.5% in June, and core inflation may hit a five-month high of 3%. Against this expectation backdrop, traders are highly vigilant about data that exceeds expectations, as this may confirm that Trump's tariff hike policy has been transmitted to the terminal consumption level, thereby weakening market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut in September. The current market price for the September interest rate cut is close to 90%. If inflation data is hot, the US dollar is expected to receive additional support.
The previously released U.S. macroeconomic data showed weak labor market performance, triggering Fed officials to make different voices calling for interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy. Meanwhile, Trump is expected to nominate loyal dovish people to fill vacant positions in Coogler and Chairman Powell, an expectation that markets will see a turn for Fed policy toward looseness. On the contrary, if inflation data is lower than expected, it will ease market concerns about the impact of tariffs and pave the way for the Fed to cut interest rates in September, which may stimulate risk appetite and put downward pressure on the dollar.
Technical:
From the 60-minute chart, the US dollar index is currently operating in a relatively narrow range of 98.4580 to 98.6650, showing a typical sideways consolidation pattern. Bollinger Band IndexIt indicates that the exchange rate fluctuates near the middle track, and the Bollinger Band converges clearly, implying that the market is at a key node of directional selection. The upper resistance level is concentrated at the 99 line, which corresponds to the previous high point and constitutes an important technical resistance. The support below is located around 98.0199, which forms a double support pattern with the previous low of 97.9270.
In terms of MACD indicators, the fast and slow lines are entangled near the zero axis. The MACD bar chart shows that the long and short forces are relatively balanced, and there is a lack of clear directional signals. It is worth noting that the difference between the DIFF line and the DEA line narrowed to 0.0515, indicating that the momentum is weakening and the market may be brewing a larger directional breakthrough.
The relative strength index RSI operates at the level of 60.7225, and is in a relatively strong area. It neither touches overbought nor reaches the oversold state, providing a large operating space for subsequent market conditions. The slow trend of the RSI indicator further confirms the current market indecision.
Prevention of market sentiment:
Current market sentiment shows obvious wait-and-see characteristics, and traders generally take a cautious stand and wait for guidance on key data. The low volatility environment of the US dollar index reflects the market's high attention to inflation data, and this silent state often heralds the approach of an important breakthrough. From the perspective of capital flow, there is a delicate balance between the hedging attributes of US dollar assets and the yield expectations, and inflation data will directly affect the tilt direction of this balance.
Traders have great differences over the Fed's policy path, with dovish and hawkish views coexisting. This uncertainty further exacerbates the sideways consolidation pattern of exchange rates. It is worth noting that changes in global risk appetite sentiment will also have an important impact on the trend of the US dollar, especially after the release of inflation data, the market may experience a significant emotional change.
Future Outlook:
Bules Outlook: If inflation data exceeds expectations, it will strengthen the Fed's expectations of maintaining a relatively tightening policy, and the US dollar index is expected to break through the 99 resistance level. In this case, the safe-haven attributes of the US dollar will be strengthened, especially in the context of global economic uncertainty. Technically, effectively breaking through the upper edge of the current consolidation range will open a new round of upward trend, and the target position can be seen at the 100 psychological threshold.
Bell prospects: On the contrary, if inflation data is moderate or lower than expected, it will increase market confidence in the Fed's interest rate cut. The US dollar index may lose the support level of 98.0199 and further fall to the 97.7000-97.8000 area. Under the expectation of loose monetary policy, the relative attractiveness of the US dollar will weaken, and emerging market currencies and www.xmh100.commodity currencies may receive more attention.
The above content is all about "[XM Forex Official Website]: The technical breakthrough of the US dollar is brewing, and CPI data will ignite market sentiment". It is carefully www.xmh100.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!
Share, it is as simple as a gust of wind that can bring refreshment, and it is as pure as a flower that can bring fragranceJie. The dusty heart gradually opened up, and I learned to share. Sharing is actually so simple.
Disclaimers: XM Group only provides execution services and access permissions for online trading platforms, and allows individuals to view and/or use the website or the content provided on the website, but has no intention of making any changes or extensions, nor will it change or extend its services and access permissions. All access and usage permissions will be subject to the following terms and conditions: (i) Terms and conditions; (ii) Risk warning; And (iii) a complete disclaimer. Please note that all information provided on the website is for general informational purposes only. In addition, the content of all XM online trading platforms does not constitute, and cannot be used for any unauthorized financial market trading invitations and/or invitations. Financial market transactions pose significant risks to your investment capital.
All materials published on online trading platforms are only intended for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered for financial, investment tax, or trading related consulting and advice, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related trading offers or invitations.
All content provided by XM and third-party suppliers on this website, including opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, other information, and third-party website links, remains unchanged and is provided as general market commentary rather than investment advice. All materials published on online trading platforms are only for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered as applicable to financial, investment tax, or trading related advice and recommendations, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related financial offers or invitations. Please ensure that you have read and fully understood the information on XM's non independent investment research tips and risk warnings. For more details, please click here