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Palm oil has been approaching key resistance with three consecutive positive moments! Is it a breakthrough at the 4400 mark or a temptation to attract more?

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange]: Palm oil is approaching key resistance for three consecutive positive moments! Is the 4400 mark a breakthrough or temptation to get long?" Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On Tuesday (August 12), the main palm oil contract of Malaysia Derivatives Exchange (BMD) (FCPOc3) continued to rebound today, with the October contract closing up 16 ringgit (0.36%) to 4,400 ringgit/ton, closing higher for the third consecutive trading day. Technical indicators show that the daily level MACD maintains a golden cross but narrows the columnar shape, RSI (14) is located in a neutral and strong area of 64.27, and the Bollinger channel upper rail is 4378 ringgit. The market strengthening was mainly boosted by oil and fat futures on the Dalian www.xmh100.commodity Exchange in China - the main palm oil contract rose 3.13% on the same day, the soybean oil contract rose 0.9%, while the Chicago Futures Exchange (CBOT) soybean oil fell 0.81%. The differentiation of the domestic and foreign markets highlighted the regional supply and demand differences.

The game between high inventory and recovery of exports

The latest data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Bureau (MPOB) showed that inventories increased by 4.02% month-on-month to 2.11 million tons at the end of July, a record high in the past two years, mainly because the growth rate of output exceeded demand and recovery. However, export data improved significantly in the first 10 August: shipping agencies Intertek and AmSpec recorded month-on-month increase of 23.3% and 23.7%, respectively, suggesting that demand for restocking was launched after Ramadan. A trader in Kuala Lumpur pointed out: "Although inventory pressure has not subsided, Chinese buying and Indonesian policy expectations are hedging negative news."

The Indonesian Ministry of Energy reiterated that it will implement the B50 biodiesel plan in 2026 (palm oil blending rate has increased to 50%), but the market generally believes that the project will be difficult to start in January next year as the original schedule. If the implementation of the policy is delayed, it may weaken the medium- and long-term demand support. valueIt is important to note that structural changes in the Indian market are reshaping the trade flow: industry insiders expect the country's soybean oil imports to surge by 60% year-on-year to record levels in 2024/25, as price advantages squeeze palm oil share; palm oil imports may fall by 13.5% to 7.8 million tons during the same period, the lowest since 2019/20.

Institutional View: Cautious Expectations under the Interweaving of Long and Short Factors

Production and Inventory Pressure: An analyst at a well-known institution believes that "Malaysia's output in July increased by 5.8% month-on-month to 1.72 million tons, and the stock rose to 2.11 million tons, and the short-term fundamentals are still loose. If exports fail to continue to increase in volume in August, the 4,400 ringgit mark may face pressure to pull back."

China demand variable: A trader in Singapore pointed out, "The widening of the recent contract spread of Dalian palm oil reflects the recovery of spot purchases, but China's port inventory is still at a high level, and subsequently The pace of import needs to be observed to the recovery of terminal catering consumption. "

Biodiesel policy game: Jakarta industry insiders remind, "If the Indonesian B50 policy is delayed, it will lead to marginal easing of the global palm oil balance table in 2026, but if the crude oil price exceeds US$90 per barrel, it may accelerate the implementation of the policy to reduce the cost of energy imports."

Future market outlook

The current palm oil market is in a tug-of-war stage of "strong expectations and weak reality": supported by China's buying and export improvement in the short term, but inventory pressure and the transfer of Indian demand restrict the upward space. Technically, we focus on the breakthrough direction of the 4400-4450 ringgit range. If the breakthrough fails, it may fall back to the 4250 ringgit support. Investors need to closely track the August MPOB data, Indonesian policy rules and China's procurement trends, and these variables will determine the price center at the end of the third quarter.

The above content is all about "[XM Forex]: Palm oil is approaching the key resistance with three consecutive positive moments! Is the 4400 mark breaking or tempting long?", which was carefully www.xmh100.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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Palm oil has been approaching key resistance with three consecutive positive moments! Is it a breakthrough at the 4400 mark or a temptation to attract more?

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Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Brokerfor a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

market news

Palm oil has been approaching key resistance with three consecutive positive moments! Is it a breakthrough at the 4400 mark or a temptation to attract more?

Related News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason