Oil prices fall to more than two months lows, Fed's easing bets boost gold prices, oil markets show pessimistic guidance

Basic news

On Thursday (August 14, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around $3,360/ounce, and the gold price gain was boosted by a weaker US dollar and a decline in US Treasury yields. Moderate U.S. inflation data consolidated the Fed's expectations of a rate cut in September and pushed up bets on further easing later this year; U.S. crude oil trading was around $62.78/barrel, and oil prices fell to a new low on Wednesday, after the U.S. government and the International Energy Agency issued pessimistic supply guidelines, while investors were paying attention to the threat of US President Trump. If Russian President Putin hinders peace in Ukraine, he would face "serious consequences."

Stock and Nasdaq Index hit record closing highs for the second consecutive day on Wednesday, and the market expects the Federal Reserve to enter a monetary easing cycle. However, after a strong gain the previous day, some technology stocks showed signs of weakening.

There are signs that the U.S. tariffs on imported products have not yet fully impacted overall consumer prices, which has given investors seeking to understand the economic impact of trade uncertainty this week.

Nvidia, Alphabet and Microsoft, among the "Seven Technology Heroes", closed lower, and investors looked for new growth drivers. "Values are too high. But I do think that the ultimate key is profitability, and that's what we are concerned about," said Katherine Bordlemay, co-head of Goldman Sachs Asset Management. She said that the degree of differentiation of returns at the U.S. stock level is at one of the higher levels in the past 30 years.

Apple rose 1.6%, after Bloomberg News reported that the www.xmh100.company is planning to enter the fields of artificial intelligence robots, home security and smart displays.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.04% to 44,922.27 points, the S&P 500 rose 0.32% to 6,466.58 points, and the Nasdaq rose 0.14% to 21,713.14 points.

The small-cap Russell 2000 index rose nearly 2%, reaching a six-month high. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch tool, traders have now fully digested the Fed's expectations of a 25 basis point cut. The last time the Fed lowered its borrowing costs was in December last year.

Treasury Secretary Bescent said on Wednesday that he believes a sharp cut of half a percentage point is possible given the recent weak employment data.

After recent rises in U.S. stocks led by tech stocks have pushed the S&P 500 to exceed the long-term average, investors have also begun to focus on other industries.

The health care sector, which has been in a downturn for most of this year, rose 1.6%, leading the gains among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500.

Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Goulsby said Wednesday that the Fed is working to understand whether tariffs will temporarily push up inflation or have a more sustained impact, which will provide a reference for its decision to cut interest rates.

Golden market

Gold rose on Wednesday, boosted by a weaker dollar and a decline in bond yields. Moderate U.S. inflation data consolidated expectations for a Fed rate cut in September and pushed up bets on further easing later this year. Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3355.58 an ounce. US gold futures for December delivery closed up 0.3% to $3,408.3.

The US dollar index hit a new low in more than two weeks, reducing the cost of buying gold for overseas buyers, while the index's 10-year Treasury bond yield fell. "The CPI data is moderate and expectations for the Fed's September rate cuts heated up after weak non-farm employment data in July, and gold is strong," said senior market analyst Nikos Tzabouras.

Investors are currently awaiting further U.S. indicators this week, including producer price index, number of unemployment claims filed last week and retail sales. On the geopolitical front, European and Ukrainian leaders will meet with Trump before Trump meets with Russian President Putin, while China and the United States extend the tariff truce for 90 days.

Spot silver rose 1.6% to $38.50 per ounce; platinum rose 0.3% to $1339.75; palladium rose 0.5% to $1135.23. Oil market

Oil prices fell to more than two months lows on Wednesday, after the U.S. government and the International Energy Agency issued pessimistic supply guidelines, while investors were concerned about the threat from U.S. President Trump, who would face "serious consequences" if Russian President Putin hinders peace in Ukraine.

Brent crude oil futuresThe settlement price fell 0.7% to $65.63 per barrel. It fell to $65.01 during the session, the lowest level since June 6. U.S. crude oil futures fell 0.8% to $62.65 a barrel. The contract fell to $61.94 intraday, its lowest level since June 2.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced on Wednesday that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 3 million barrels to 426.7 million barrels. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had previously expected inventory to drop by 275,000 barrels. The EIA said that U.S. net crude oil imports rose by 699,000 barrels per day last week. "Crude oil exports are still below the levels we are used to because of tariff resistance," said John Kilduff, a partner at AgainCapital in New York, adding that the continued decline in exports could put pressure on prices. The IEA raised its forecast for oil supply growth this year on Wednesday but lowered its forecast for demand.

The outside world is expected to meet with Putin in Alaska on Friday to discuss ending Russia's war in Ukraine, which has affected the oil market since February 2022. When asked if Russia would face any consequences if Putin did not agree to stop the war after Friday's meeting, Trump replied on Wednesday: "Yes, they will." When asked if those consequences would be sanctions or tariffs, Trump told reporters that the consequences would be very serious.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ raised its global oil demand forecast for next year in its monthly report released on Tuesday and lowered its supply growth forecast for the United States and other non-OPEC producers, indicating that the market will be tighter.

Foreign market

The dollar fell for the second consecutive trading day on Wednesday, after a day when U.S. inflation data strengthened market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut next month, while U.S. President Trump once again put pressure on interest rate cuts, further exacerbating the dollar's selling.

The US dollar index fell 0.2%, hitting its lowest since July 28, of 97.856, and fell 0.5% on Tuesday.

Data released on Tuesday showed that US consumer prices rose slightly in July, basically in line with expectations, and the transmission effect of Trump's large-scale tariffs on www.xmh100.commodity prices has been limited so far.

Investors are almost certain that the Fed will lower interest rates next month, according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG).

U.S. Treasury Secretary Becent called for a "sequential rate cut" on Wednesday and said the Fed could start a policy easing action with a 50 basis point cut. The day before, Trump, who repeatedly criticized Fed Chairman Powell for failing to cut interest rates as soon as possible, put further pressure on him.

White House spokesman Levitt said the president is considering a lawsuit against Powell for poor management of the renovation of the Federal Reserve's Washington headquarters.

Shaun Osborne, chief monetary strategist at Scotiabank, said: "I think the political level in Washington is putting considerable pressure on the Fed toFind the interest rate adjustment. ”

Trump also criticized Goldman Sachs CEO Su Dewei, saying the bank’s prediction of U.S. tariffs would hurt the economy is wrong. Trump questioned whether Su Dewei should continue to lead Goldman Sachs.

Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic said on Wednesday that the United States is close to full employment, which provides the Federal Reserve with a "luxury condition" not to rush to make any policy adjustments.

Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Goulsby said Wednesday that the Fed is working to understand whether tariffs will temporarily push up inflation or have a more sustained impact.

The weak dollar supports the euro and pound. The euro rose 0.2% against the dollar to $1.1698, reaching its highest level since July 28. The pound against The dollar rose 0.5% to $1.3567, reaching its highest level since July 24.

The UK job market weakened again, but wage growth remained strong, highlighting why the Bank of England is so cautious about rate cuts.

The Australian dollar rose 0.2% to $0.6541, while the New York dollar rose 0.3% to $0.5973.

The RBA cut rates on Tuesday as expected and suggested that further easing policy may be needed to achieve inflation and employment targets as the economy loses some momentum.

International News

U.S. interest rate swaps show traders expect the probability of a 10-year rate cut in the Federal Reserve meeting 0%

The overnight index swap (OIS) contract linked to the Fed's meeting period www.xmh100.completely digested the expectation that the September Federal Open Market www.xmh100.committee (FOMC) meeting would cut interest rates by 25 basis points later on Wednesday, and there were a large number of transactions in the federal funds rate futures contracts. Before 3 pm New York time, the August and October contracts were traded actively, and the overnight financing rate (SOFR) futures September 2025 contracts were traded. The OIS interest rate linked to the Fed's September policy meeting therefore fell to an intraday low, close to 4.08%, indicating a 100% chance of a 25 basis point cut. From the far side of the swap curve, the market currently expects that the remaining three FOMC meetings this year will cut interest rates by a total of 62 basis points.

Trump may propose Putin to jointly develop Alaska rare earth resources

According to the British Daily Telegraph, citing sources, US President Trump will propose to Putin to jointly develop Alaska rare earth mineral resources during the Russian-US summit and lift the export ban on Russian aircraft parts. British government sources told the newspaper that such incentives are "acceptable to Europe." The newspaper pointed out that Alaska contains a large amount of oil and gas resources, including about 13% of the world's oil reserves.

Trump: If the "Tep Meeting" successfully meets the United States, Russia and Ukraine

On August 13 local time, US President Trump said thatIf the meeting with Russian President Putin goes smoothly on the 15th, a second meeting will be held soon. Trump said that the second meeting will be attended by Ukrainian President Zelensky. Trump also said that if the conflict is not stopped, Russia will face consequences. On the same day, Trump held a video conference with European leaders and Zelensky. People familiar with the matter said Trump discussed with the participants the location where he might meet with Zelensky and Putin after the "Tep Meeting".

German Chancellor: Ukraine is ready for territorial negotiations

German Chancellor Mertz said after the online meeting on Ukraine on his own that Ukraine is ready for territorial negotiations, and the so-called "contact line" should be the starting point of negotiations. "Ukraine is ready for territorial negotiations, and the so-called "contact line" should be the starting point of negotiations." The press conference was broadcasted through the official website of the German Chancellor. Merz said that legal recognition of the territory under Russia's control is "out of the scope of discussion." Becent: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is very likely to be 50 basis points

U.S. Treasury Secretary Becent said in an interview that the Federal Reserve's interest rate should be 150-175 basis points lower than it is now. If the data is accurate, the Federal Reserve may have cut interest rates earlier. Becent believes that the Federal Reserve has the possibility of a 50 basis point cut, and a series of interest rate cuts may start from a 50 basis point cut in September. When mentioning the Federal Reserve's main When choosing the seat, he mentioned that they will cast a large net of 10-11 people. He also said that he had proposed to establish a "shadow Fed chairman" but now he believes it is unnecessary. In addition, Becent believes that the Fed does not need to re-implement large-scale asset purchases (QEs). When talking about the employment report, he said that he did not support the release of the employment report, but emphasized that what is needed is reliable data. Some analysts said that the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September is almost zero. To achieve this, we are likely to Non-farm employment report that requires September is weak again.

Russia will share production cuts by 2025 to www.xmh100.compensate OPEC+'s production cuts

Russia plans to share the remaining production cuts needed to make up for the OPEC+ production target, extending the process by three additional months. According to the latest www.xmh100.compensation plan, Moscow currently plans to cut production by 85,000 barrels per month from July to November and 9,000 barrels in December. The previous plan was only implemented until September. p>

Domestic News

Fortune released the list of "40 business elites under the age of 40 in China"

Liang Wenfeng, Wang Xingxing and Wang Ning ranked in the top three According to the list of "40 business elites under the age of 40 in China" released by Fortune (Chinese version), the top five are Liang Wenfeng (39 years old), founder of Yushu Technology Wang Xingxing (35 years old), founder of Pop Mart Wang Ning (38 years old), and founder of Insta360 Liu JingKang (33 years old), Zhang Zhengping (36 years old), rotating president of Cialis Group. ”

This year, 188 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds support equipment renewal investment subsidy funds have been issued

Since 2025, the National Development and Reform www.xmh100.commission has conscientiously implemented the decisions and deployments of the CPC Central www.xmh100.committee and the State Council on the implementation of the "two new" policies, worked with relevant departments and localities to optimize the scope of equipment renewal support, improve project application and review standards, strictly do a good job in project screening and checking, and promote the implementation of equipment renewal in key areas. Recently, the 2025 ultra-long-term special treasury bonds support the establishment of The 188 billion yuan investment subsidy funds for the renewal have been issued, supporting about 8,400 projects in the fields of industry, energy-consuming equipment, energy and electricity, transportation, logistics, environmental infrastructure, education, culture and tourism, medical care, old residential elevators, electronic information, facility agriculture, grain and oil processing, safe production, recycling and utilization, driving a total investment of more than 1 trillion yuan. In the next step, the National Development and Reform www.xmh100.commission will, in accordance with the decisions and deployments of the CPC Central www.xmh100.committee and the State Council, continue to strengthen overall coordination with all relevant parties and steadily promote project construction. To promote the formation of more physical workloads as soon as possible, strictly manage projects and funds in closed loops, ensure that central funds are used in practice, and better play the effectiveness of the "two new" policies.

The first batch of typical application cases of artificial intelligence in the field of biomanufacturing was announced, and 16 were on the list

According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in order to implement the decision-making and deployment of the CPC Central www.xmh100.committee and the State Council on the development of biomanufacturing, according to the "General Office of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on the collection of typical application cases of intelligent technology in the field of biomanufacturing Notice of "(Consumption Letter of the Department of Industry and Information Technology [2024] No. 394), after recommendations of provincial industrial and information technology authorities, expert evaluation, online announcement and other procedures, "Typical Application Cases of Artificial Intelligence in the Field of Biomanufacturing (First Batch)", please further promote the deep integration of artificial intelligence and biomanufacturing, and promote the quality and upgrading of the entire biomanufacturing industry chain.

The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Oil prices fell to new lows in more than two months, and the Federal Reserve's easing policy bets to boost gold prices The entire content of "The Pessimistic Guidelines in the Oil Market" was carefully www.xmh100.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for your support!

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