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The expectation of interest rate cuts helps the US rebound, but politicized data + Fed personnel changes are burying lightning

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Expectations of interest rate cuts help non-US rebound, but politicized data + the Federal Reserve's personnel changes lay mines." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

Asian market market

As the market expectation of market interest rate cuts heated up, the US dollar index fell for the second consecutive trading day and fell below the 98 mark. As of now, the US dollar is quoted at 97.75.

Foreign Exchange Market Fundamental Review

It is reported that the Trump administration is considering 11 candidates for the Federal Reserve Chairman, including three people who have never been publicly nominated before, Jefferies chief market strategist David Zervos, former Federal Reserve Director Larry Lindsey and BlackRock Chief Investment Officer Rick Rieder. But Trump himself said he would appoint a new Fed chairman as soon as possible, with only three to four candidates left.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Becent: The Federal Reserve has the possibility of a 50 basis point cut rate; the Federal Reserve's current interest rate should be reduced by 150-175 basis points; it does not believe that the Federal Reserve needs to return to large-scale bond purchases; it will not support the suspension of employment reports, but is needed reliable data; when talking about Trump's meeting with Putin, Becent said that if the talks are not going well, sanctions or secondary tariffs may be raised.

Trump: If Russia does not stop the conflict, it will face consequences. We hope to hold a second meeting with Putin as soon as possible. If the "Tep Conference" goes well, a trilateral meeting between the United States, Russia and Ukraine will be held.

European leaders urged Trump to put pressure on Putin to agree to a ceasefire and meet with Zelensky. According to sources: If a ceasefire agreement is reached, Ukraine's European allies will"Consider eases sanctions against Russia."

Summary of institutional views

Mitsubishi UF: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is on the string, and the BLS data storm has caused credibility concerns

After the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report yesterday, the US dollar index fell back to the near-term support level around 98.000 and continued to fall on Wednesday.

The overall CPI (+0.2% month-on-month) and core CPI (+0.3% month-on-month) in July were in line with market expectations, which eased the market's concerns about the risk of tariffs that could trigger upward inflation. The lack of upward inflation surprise has given market participants more confidence that the Fed will pay more attention to slowing employment growth at its September meeting and restart interest rate cuts. At present, the U.S. interest rate market has almost www.xmh100.completely digested the expectation of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in September and is expected to cut interest rates by about 60 basis points in total by the end of the year.

Yesterday, www.xmh100.comments by Anthony, the new Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) director, further exacerbated the dollar's sell-off. "BLS should suspend monthly employment reports, but retain more accurate but less timely quarterly data," he said in an interview with Fox News. These remarks have heightened market concerns that political interventions could lead to the loss of credibility of U.S. economic data. Although White House spokesman Taylor Rogers later clarified that Anthony's remarks did not represent the official BLS policy and said its priority was to improve data accuracy, market concerns about this have not www.xmh100.completely dissipated.

The ongoing uncertainty about the potential shift to dovish Fed’s board and new concerns about the possible political intervention of U.S. economic data is prompting market participants to maintain a higher risk premium to the dollar. Yesterday's CPI report also left room for the Fed to restart interest rate cuts next month, which also helped the dollar weaken in the short term. Spread currencies are one of the main beneficiaries as they continue to benefit from the continued decline in financial market volatility.

Scotiabank Canada: The reliability of US economic data is questioned, and the politicization of BLS data and the proportion of overestimation is a "double hidden danger".

We believe that behind this CPI data, there are serious data quality concerns, which may lead to more impacts on the decisions of the Federal Reserve (FOMC) by subsequent data and political events.

Data Politicization: Given that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has been blatantly politicized, there is uncertainty in all BLS data from now on. CPI, PPI, PCE and non-farm employment data are all overshadowed by the former BLS chief being fired, Trump’s cronies replaced, staff members are worried about posting numbers that the president doesn’t like, and possible methodological changes in the future. For example, BLS has announced the postponement of the reset of the CPI data base originally scheduled to be released with this report, and no new date has been set.

The proportion of estimates is high: As the Trump administration cuts the BLS budget, a large part of the CPI basket is estimated through proxy methodsof. Budget cuts affect BLS’ ability to collect data, so they have to use alternatives, such as replacing cities with prices from other cities that cannot be obtained, or using alternatives that are considered “similar” to www.xmh100.commodities that cannot be obtained. In the past three months, the proportion of estimated data in the CPI basket has continued to rise, from 29% in March, 30% in May to 35% in June, setting a record high, even exceeding the level when data was not collected due to restrictions during the epidemic. In short, even without considering the fact that Trump cronies now manage BLS, the percentage of “made up” data in the CPI basket is surprisingly high, which hurts the reliability of all U.S. inflation and employment data.

Credit Bank of France: There may be a significant lag in tariff transmission to CPI, and the Federal Reserve may adopt a "download twice, wait and see" strategy

The overall U.S. consumer price index (CPI) in July rose 2.73% year-on-year, slightly lower than our forecast and general market expectations. The core CPI rose 0.32% month-on-month, meeting market expectations after rounding, but is still about 4 basis points lower than our forecast.

We reiterate our previous view: the limited acceleration of inflation in core www.xmh100.commodities suggests that there may be significant lag or limited impact on tariff transmission to CPI. Currently, we maintain a forecast that core inflation will strengthen slightly in the www.xmh100.coming months (0.39% month-on-month in August, 0.35% in September, and about 0.28% in the fourth quarter), but the limitation of tariff transmission poses modest downside risks to our CPI path forecast.

For the Fed, we don’t think this report is ideal. Although the overall annual CPI was slightly lower than expected, the strengthening of core inflation data is even more worrying. This concern is especially due to the strength of the service industry, and although signs of tariff transmission are still limited, the core CPI has still hit a new high since January. Nevertheless, we believe that the July report alone is not enough to prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates in September. The camp that advocates easing is more concerned with labor market data, so the short-term decision to cut interest rates may depend more on employment data including the August non-farm employment report.

However, even if inflation data does not www.xmh100.completely prevent further easing, it does form a check and balance that limits the extent of easing. Based on this, our current forecast is that the Fed will cut interest rates twice and then pause for a while, although the uncertainty remains high.

Analyst Eren Sengezer: After the strong upward trend of pound and the technical overbought signal, the primary resistance above is at...

On Tuesday, the general selling pressure of the US dollar fueled the rise of pound and US, as investors viewed July inflation data as confirmation that the Fed will adopt dovish policies for the rest of the year.

Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the annual growth rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July remained unchanged at 2.7%, in line with our forecast, while the market expects to be 2.8%. In addition, CPI and core CPI increased by 0.2 respectively month-on-month% and 0.3%, consistent with analyst expectations. According to CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed's total rate cut of 75 basis points this year climbed to more than 53% from about 43% before the release of CPI data. In turn, major Wall Street stock indexes rose as a result, causing the dollar to continue to weaken against other currencies at the close of the day.

On the 4-hour chart, the RSI indicator remains around 80, reflecting that the pair is already overbought.

Upward direction: The next resistance level is at 1.3590-1.3600 (previous high, integer mark), followed by 1.3640 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the latest downtrend) and 1.3700 (integer mark).

Downward direction: The primary support level for the callback may appear at 1.3540 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), 1.3500 (integer mark), and 1.3460 (50% Fibonacci retracement, 200-period moving average).

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The expectation of interest rate cuts helps the US rebound, but politicized data + Fed personnel changes are burying lightning

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Summary of institutional views

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