Trusted by over 15 Million Traders
The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason
CATEGORIES
News
- 【XM Market Analysis】--ETH/USD Forecast: Ethereum Struggles Below $3,600
- 【XM Group】--GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Gains as Behavioral Sentiment Does Show Imp
- 【XM Forex】--USD/TRY Forecast: Reports Reveal Lira's Significant Appreciation in
- 【XM Market Analysis】--AUD/USD Forex Signal: Forecast As the Aussie Tumbles
- 【XM Forex】--GBP/USD Forecast Struggles Near 1.25
market news
Will the September Fed resolution be a turning point for the New York dollar/dollar?
Wonderful introduction:
Spring flowers will bloom! If you have ever experienced winter, then you will have spring! If you have dreams, then spring will definitely not be far away; if you are giving, then one day you will have flowers blooming in the garden.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Decision Analysis]: Will the September Fed resolution be a turning point for the New York dollar/USD?". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Thursday (August 14), the market is still paying close attention to the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates in September. The latest U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report failed to change the market's expectations for interest rate cuts. Although the data is roughly consistent with expectations, its strength is not enough to prevent market expectations of a rate cut in September. The market has been priced at the end of the year by the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 60 basis points. Analysts believe that the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September is almost inevitable unless the non-farm employment data in September shows unexpected performance.
The US dollar rebounded slightly after the CPI report, but the overall rise lacked clear fundamental support, mainly reflecting the market's repositioning before the report of the US Producer Price Index (PPI). At this time, the market's widespread expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut have not diminished, and the rebound of the US dollar may only be temporary.
In www.xmh100.comparison, in terms of the New Zealand dollar (NZD), the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The labor market report released last week is basically in line with expectations and has not had a significant impact on the Fed's (RBNZ) rate cut expectations. The market still expects RBNZ to cut interest rates by 42 basis points by the end of the year, and the probability of a rate cut for the upcoming RBNZ meeting is as high as 94%.
Franchise
The US dollar (USD) has been under some pressure after the latest CPI report, which, although the data is consistent with expectations, failed to prevent market expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut in September. The market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 60 basis points by the end of the year, which supports the market's confidence in future interest rate cuts. As the Fed's expectations for interest rate cuts heat up, market confidence in interest rate cuts continues to increase, and the US dollar's rebound appears not strong.
In contrast, the fundamental changes in New Zealand's New Zealand dollar (NZD)It is relatively stable, and the only major data is last week's labor market report, which is in line with market expectations. The market still expects RBNZ to cut interest rates by 42 basis points by the end of the year, and expects the probability of a rate cut in the upcoming (next week) meeting is as high as 94%. This shows that although the New York dollar rebounded at one point when the dollar was under pressure, the overall uptrend was difficult to sustain unless there were other stronger support factors.
Technical
NZD/USD has encountered certain pressure near the psychological threshold of 0.6000 and has declined. The current price has retreated to the 0.5950 area, breaking the upward trend for two consecutive days. The current price trend shows that the market has a strong suppression force for the resistance level of 0.6000.
Bolling band analysis: The price is currently near the middle track of the Bollinger band, indicating that the market is still in the consolidation stage. The Bollinger bandwidth is relatively stable and there is no excessive expansion, indicating that market volatility is still in the normal range. A price breaking through the upper track of the Bollinger band may drive prices to rise further, otherwise it may be back-tested to the lower track.
RSI and MACD indicator analysis: RSI is currently located near 48.67 and is in a neutral area, indicating that the market has uncertainty about the trend of the exchange rate, and neither over-buy nor over-sell. The difference between the MACD line and the signal line is small, indicating that the market momentum is weak in the short term and there is a lack of a clear trend.
Support and resistance level: Short-term support is around 0.5930, while resistance level is at 0.6000. If the price breaks through 0.6000, it may face the next important resistance level of 0.6119.
Market Sentiment Observation
Dollar Index (DXY): The US dollar index has experienced a slight rebound. Although the rebound of the US dollar is not strong, it still puts downward pressure on the New York dollar/USD. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September, so the strength of the US dollar may not last long. The market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut may continue to support the New York dollar/USD in the future.
New Zealand dollar sentiment: Market sentiment is relatively optimistic, especially when geopolitical relations are slightly alleviated, risk preference sentiment has increased.
Future Outlook
Bules Outlook: If the New York dollar/USD can break through the psychological resistance level of 0.6000, it may further rise and test the upper resistance area of 0.6119. In this case, traders may be concerned about whether the Fed further confirms expectations of interest rate cuts, which, if confirmed, may provide impetus for the NZD/USD rise.
Bell Outlook: If the price fails to break through 0.6000 and continues to consolidate around 0.5950, it may trigger further price decline. In the short term, the US dollar may put downward pressure on the New York dollar due to market readjustment.
Long-term Outlook: Despite some uncertainty in the short term, given the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts and the market's preference for risks, the New York dollar/USD may remain in an upward trend in the long run.
Conclusion
www.xmh100.comprehensive analysis of fundamentals and technical aspects, the analysis believes that the market is currently in a critical technical consolidation stage. Despite facing certain pressure in the short term, especially the resistance level of 0.6000, the overall trend is still possible to break through and rise. Traders pay attention to the upcoming U.S. PPI data and the Fed's speech, and adjust trading strategies in a timely manner.
The above content is all about "[XM Forex Decision Analysis]: Will the September Fed resolution be the turning point of the New York dollar/USD?", which was carefully www.xmh100.compiled and edited by the XM Forex editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
Life in the present, don’t waste your current life in missing the past or looking forward to the future.
Disclaimers: XM Group only provides execution services and access permissions for online trading platforms, and allows individuals to view and/or use the website or the content provided on the website, but has no intention of making any changes or extensions, nor will it change or extend its services and access permissions. All access and usage permissions will be subject to the following terms and conditions: (i) Terms and conditions; (ii) Risk warning; And (iii) a complete disclaimer. Please note that all information provided on the website is for general informational purposes only. In addition, the content of all XM online trading platforms does not constitute, and cannot be used for any unauthorized financial market trading invitations and/or invitations. Financial market transactions pose significant risks to your investment capital.
All materials published on online trading platforms are only intended for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered for financial, investment tax, or trading related consulting and advice, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related trading offers or invitations.
All content provided by XM and third-party suppliers on this website, including opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, other information, and third-party website links, remains unchanged and is provided as general market commentary rather than investment advice. All materials published on online trading platforms are only for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered as applicable to financial, investment tax, or trading related advice and recommendations, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related financial offers or invitations. Please ensure that you have read and fully understood the information on XM's non independent investment research tips and risk warnings. For more details, please click here