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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
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荣获 Shares Magazine 的 UK Forex Awards 2017 颁赠
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023最佳外汇客户服务奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023澳大拉西亚最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023拉丁美洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023中东最佳外汇经纪商奖
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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FX168于2020年12月颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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荣获 The Trading Show 2024年非洲 Africa Fintech 峰会颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
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World Finance 2021颁发
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FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
FOLLOWME交易社区授予
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
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荣获2018年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获 Shares Magazine 的 UK Forex Awards 2017 颁赠
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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2016年最佳外汇经纪商
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2015年最佳本地客户服务
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Global Brands Magazine 颁赠
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Online Money Awards 2022 颁发
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2015最佳金融交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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金融行业的佼佼者
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认证最优金牌级别
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2014年首届亚军
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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COLWMA 2024年颁赠
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023最佳外汇客户服务奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023欧洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023澳大拉西亚最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023拉丁美洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023中东最佳外汇经纪商奖
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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FX168于2020年12月颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2016最佳本土 客户服务
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中东和北非地区（MENA）增长最快的经纪商
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2015年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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荣获 The Trading Show 2024年非洲 Africa Fintech 峰会颁赠
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投查查于2024年颁赠
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2022年颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
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World Finance 2021颁发
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FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
FOLLOWME交易社区授予
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
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荣获2018年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获 Shares Magazine 的 UK Forex Awards 2017 颁赠
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荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2017
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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2016年最佳外汇经纪商
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2015年最佳本地客户服务
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Global Brands Magazine 颁赠
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Online Money Awards 2022 颁发
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2015最佳金融交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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金融行业的佼佼者
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认证最优金牌级别
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2014年首届亚军
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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COLWMA 2024年颁赠
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023最佳外汇客户服务奖
-
荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023欧洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
-
荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023澳大拉西亚最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023拉丁美洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
-
荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023中东最佳外汇经纪商奖
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
-
荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
-
FX168于2020年12月颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
-
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
-
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
-
Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2016最佳本土 客户服务
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中东和北非地区（MENA）增长最快的经纪商
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2015年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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荣获 The Trading Show 2024年非洲 Africa Fintech 峰会颁赠
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荣获2024年中东地区 Brokersview 颁赠
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荣获2024年阿曼 Smart Vision 峰会颁赠
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荣获2024年迪拜 Forex Traders Summit 颁赠
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投查查于2024年颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2022年颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
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FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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FOLLOWME交易社区授予
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
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荣获2018年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获 Shares Magazine 的 UK Forex Awards 2017 颁赠
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荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2017
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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2016年最佳外汇经纪商
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2015年最佳本地客户服务
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Global Brands Magazine 颁赠
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Online Money Awards 2022 颁发
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2015最佳金融交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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金融行业的佼佼者
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认证最优金牌级别
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2014年首届亚军
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CATEGORIES
market analysis
Concerns about trade tensions and expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve put pressure on the U.S. dollar index
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Concerns about the trade situation and expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the US dollar index is under pressure." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
In Asian trading on Friday, the U.S. dollar index hovered around 98.22. The U.S. dollar fell on Thursday, falling against major currencies such as the euro, Japanese yen and Swiss franc for the third consecutive trading day, at a time when trade tensions were tense and the market assessed speeches by Federal Reserve officials.
Analysis of major currency trends
USD: The US dollar faces selling pressure from a series of headwinds, especially the firming of dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the ongoing trade friction between the United States (US) and China. The dollar remains weak. Concerns that escalating tensions will push the trade relationship between the world's two largest economies to a point of no return are eroding confidence in the dollar. Technically, the U.S. dollar index has continued to fall since hitting a multi-month high of 99.563 on October 9, and the current selling rhythm is still relatively stable. However, the index is moving closer to long-term trend indicators, signaling the potential for more volatility ahead.
1. The government "shutdown" continues and the US Senate rejects the temporary appropriation bill for the tenth time
On October 16, local time, the US Senate once again failed to advance the Republican's temporary appropriation bill by a vote of 51 to 45. It is reported that Republicans need 60 votes to advance the bill that will fund the government until the end of November. This is the 10th consecutive vote in the past two weeks that the Senate has rejected the temporary appropriation bill after the U.S. government was shut down.
2. Multiple data showed that U.S. consumption slowed down in September
Multiple credit card transactions and private sector data showed that U.S. consumer demand slowed down last month. After analyzing high-frequency spending data including credit card borrowings and same-store sales, economists said that consumers began to tighten spending based on the strong annualized growth of 4.1% in retail activity in the previous three months. Bank of America economist Shruti Mishra pointed out: "From June to August, there is a trend of slowing down spending month by month, and then you will not see the same growth rate as before." Credit and debit card data from the data analysis platform SecondMeasure showed that consumers' willingness to purchase non-essential items such as furniture, electronic products and home appliances weakened last month. Credit card data from Bank of America also showed cooling demand. Barclays economists said momentum in retail sales "may have weakened" in September, based on a model that includes disposable income, stock market wealth, inflation, consumer confidence and credit card spending.
3. The French government passed the no-confidence motion vote in parliament
The French National Assembly voted on two no-confidence motions against the government on October 16. The motions were ultimately unsuccessful, and the government led by French Prime Minister Le Corny was not overthrown by the parliament. Le Corni said after the vote that the 2026 national budget draft will soon begin discussion and review in the National Assembly. On September 9, Le Corny, then Minister of Defense, was appointed Prime Minister by President Macron. On October 6, Le Corni submitted his resignation and was approved. On the 10th, Le Corny was re-appointed Prime Minister. France's main opposition proposed a motion of no-confidence against the government on the 13th.
4. European Central Bank Governing Council Scicluna: The impact of U.S. tariffs is still unclear and interest rates should not be adjusted hastily
European Central Bank Governing Council Scicluna said that the European Central Bank should not take further interest rate actions hastily because the impact of increased U.S. trade tariffs on prices is still unclear. "Whether raising trade tariffs will lead to inflation or deflation is unclear at the moment. We should not jump to conclusions because this is crucial," the Maltese central bank governor said. Scicluna does not expect rates to change at the end of this month, but expects a "more intense" debate in December, when more data will be released, including new staff forecasts. He said, "In my opinion, there needs to be a www.xmh100.compelling reason to support another interest rate cut. Those who want further interest rate cuts have the responsibility to convince the rest of us."
5. The U.S. budget deficit fell by $41 billion in fiscal 2025 to 1. $775 trillion
The U.S. Treasury Department reported on Thursday that the U.S. budget deficit fell by $41 billion to $1.775 trillion in fiscal 2025, as Trump's tariffs boosted revenue by $118 billion. The deficit in fiscal year 2024 is $1.817 trillion. It's the first time the annual deficit has fallen since 2022, when unwinding pandemic relief programs led to lower spending. The reduction in the deficit was driven by record net tariff revenue of $195 billion this fiscal year, an increase of $118 billion from the previous year as Trump's new tariffs were implemented. Total fiscal revenue in fiscal year 2025 reached a record high of $5.235 trillion, an increase of $317 billion, or 6%, from $4.918 trillion in fiscal year 2024. Spending in fiscal year 2025 also reached a record high of $7.01 trillion, an increase of $275 billion, or 4%, from $6.735 trillion in the previous fiscal year. Treasury officials said the fiscal 2025 deficit-to-GDP ratio is estimated at 5.9%, www.xmh100.compared with the actual fiscal 2024 deficit-to-GDP ratio of 6.3%. In addition, the Treasury also reported a record surplus of $198 billion in the last month of fiscal year 2025 (September), an increase of $118 billion or 147% over the same period last year.
Institutional Views
1. CICC: Maintain the judgment that domestic demand in the Eurozone economy will recover slowly
中Jinyan reported that looking forward, we still maintain the judgment that domestic demand in the Eurozone economy will recover slowly, mainly due to the delayed impact of monetary policy easing and the gradual implementation of fiscal policies (including national defense). We believe that there are two aspects worthy of observation in the future: First, whether the EU can adopt more powerful reform measures. After all, fiscal policy is a necessary but not sufficient condition to break the EU's current economic predicament. The EU's fiscal space is fundamentally limited by its demographic structure and growth prospects. Structural reforms (such as further EU integration, improved supervision, promotion of capital markets, etc.) are key to the EU's ability to maximize the benefits of fiscal spending. Although there are more and more voices discussing reform in the EU, few measures have been taken. The second is how far consumption can recover. Although interest rates have fallen significantly, the euro area's savings rate and willingness to save have remained high. In the new macro environment, it remains to be seen whether the increase in the savings rate is temporary or structural.
2. Institutions: The outlook for safe-haven currencies and the U.S. dollar is under pressure, and investors are turning to gold
Francesca Fornasari of Insight Investment said in a report that investors seeking alternatives to the U.S. dollar are currently more inclined to choose gold than other developed market currencies. She pointed out: "This may reflect challenges to the fiscal outlook faced by traditional safe-haven currencies such as the yen and the euro, such as France's budget problems and uncertainty surrounding the next leader of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party." Fornasari said the dollar remains under pressure from overvaluation and unsustainable U.S. fiscal conditions. Support for the dollar has weakened as investors began to question "American exceptionalism" and the credibility of U.S. policymaking. Insight Investment expects the dollar to continue to weaken.
3. Rabobank: French and German economic concerns may suppress the rise of the euro
Jane Foley of Rabobank said in a report that France’s fiscal deficit problem and Germany’s weak economic growth may weaken the short-term rising potential of the euro. She pointed out that although the euro zone's current account surplus supported the euro to a certain extent, France's fiscal difficulties were "clearly not conducive to the image of the single currency." Since the spring, speculators have bet heavily on a rise in the euro, making it more vulnerable to position adjustments. In addition, Germany's economic growth has almost stagnated, and the need for fiscal reform remains urgent. "In this context, we believe that the euro rising to US$1.20 is more distant than market consensus expectations."
The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Concerns about the trade situation and expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the U.S. dollar index is under pressure". It was carefully www.xmh100.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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