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As the U.S. government shutdown continues and data is "out of power", how can Wall Street giants get a glimpse of the truth about employment?

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Official Website]: The US government shutdown continues, data is "outage", how do Wall Street giants get a glimpse of the truth about employment?". Hope this helps you! Original content is as follows:

Economists from JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs estimated on Thursday (October 16) that the number of new applications for unemployment benefits in the United States fell last week, but lackluster hiring has left many people on the unemployment list.

They calculated that in the week ending October 11, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in various states in the United States fell to 217,000 after seasonality adjustment, from 235,000 the previous week.

Due to the political deadlock between Republicans and Democrats in Washington, the partial U.S. government shutdown has entered its third week. Ten rounds of voting have failed, causing the collection, processing and release of official economic data to stall.

However, states continue to collect and submit unemployment claims data to the Department of Labor database, which remains accessible. Economists have been using unadjusted claims data www.xmh100.combined with seasonal adjustments released by the government earlier this year to make their estimates. Claims data is not available for Arizona, Massachusetts, Nevada and Tennessee.

Our estimates assume that initial jobless claims in Tennessee, Massachusetts, Arizona and Nevada - data that did not appear in today's Labor Department report - remain consistent with the latest reported numbers. By taking the highest and lowest claims data from these states this year, the resulting forecast range is 211,000 to 225,000," Goldman Sachs said in a report.

The Labor Department also uses a similar approach to estimate states that failed to provide data in a timely manner.

Abiel Reinhart, an economist at JPMorgan Chase, said: "The latest jobless claims data looks pretty good, suggesting layoffs remain low while the unemployment rate fluctuates. "

Unemployment claims data has become a key indicator for Federal Reserve officials to assess the health of the labor market, and they will pay close attention to the data before the October 28-29 policy meeting.

Layouts and hiring both remain low

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this week: "Available evidence shows that layoffs and hiring rates remain low, and households' views of job opportunities and www.xmh100.companies' views of the difficulty of hiring continue to trend downward. ”

Unemployment claims remain within the pre-shutdown range. Although the shutdown has put thousands of federal contractors out of work, there has been no major surge in claims.

Federal workers, hundreds of thousands of whom were furloughed, applied under a separate program Claims. Data on the program were not immediately available.

Economists said the labor market remains stuck in a no-hiring and no-layoff stalemate. The Fed's Beige Book report released on Wednesday showed that labor demand has been generally weak in recent weeks. Now, the small business labor market is showing signs of slowing. The agency's alternative hiring measure, which is based on Bank of America small business payments data, fell in September. The report also pointed out that applications for www.xmh100.companies with www.xmh100.compensation plans (considered a signal of real job creation) have fallen below pre-epidemic normal levels.

Small businesses have been a major driver of job growth. Economists say President Trump’s trade and immigration policies, as well as the increasingly widespread use of artificial intelligence, have slashed demand for workers and the supply of labor.

JPMorgan estimates that for the week ended October 4, seasonally adjusted The number of continuing jobless claims (a proxy indicator reflecting the job market) remained unchanged at 1.927 million. Goldman Sachs’s estimate of the number of continuing unemployment claims is 1.917 million.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, a new high in the past four years. The continued high number of people applying for unemployment benefits indicates that the situation has not improved.

Analysis of factors that are positive for gold

The "surface" of the report is that the number of initial jobless claims has dropped, showing resilience; but the "deep side" is that hiring has stagnated, the unemployment rate has increased, and the momentum of small businesses has weakened, indicating that the economy is quietly slowing down, boosting gold's prospects. Hedging needs.

Sharp market participants will pay more attention to deep signals. They will believe that although the layoff rate is low, the signs of economic weakness are already very obvious (the unemployment rate of 4.3% is the key), which will also strongly strengthen the market's expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Government shutdowns and data black boxes have added uncertainty to the market and also provided support for gold prices.

On Friday, the fluctuations of spot gold in the Asian market expanded in early trading. It once hit a record high of 4,379.38 US dollars per ounce and then plunged 80 US dollars. Since then, oil has risen to around 4,357 US dollars per ounce. In the short term,The correction in the gold price is more about the technical side of some investors' profit understanding, and there is basically no bad news in the fundamentals. The gold price has increased by 60% this year, and this week's increase is currently nearly 8.5%. There is a high probability that the gold price will maintain Jiulian Yang on the weekly basis.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Official Website]: The U.S. government shutdown continues, data is "outage", how can Wall Street giants get a glimpse of the truth about employment?", which was carefully www.xmh100.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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As the U.S. government shutdown continues and data is "out of power", how can Wall Street giants get a glimpse of the truth about employment?

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Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Brokerfor a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

market analysis

As the U.S. government shutdown continues and data is "out of power", how can Wall Street giants get a glimpse of the truth about employment?

Related News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason