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Gold, $4180 is the dividing line between long and short!
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Gold, 4180 USD long-short dividing point!". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
"When trust in money collapses, gold is not an option, but the only option." This is an immortal motto from the investment www.xmh100.community. The most brutal verification was obtained in the global financial crisis in 2025.
The crazy rise of gold and silver has not only rewritten the textbooks of asset pricing, but also revealed mankind's deep-rooted doubts about the credit monetary system.
When the gold price breaks through the psychological defense line of US$4,000, and when silver crushes all mainstream assets with a 70% increase, what we see is not only a digital carnival, but also a currency war about survival and destruction.
1. The logic behind the crazy rise: the resonance of safe-haven demand and monetary easing
In 2025, the gains of gold and silver have exceeded the boundaries of historical cognition. Spot gold rose nearly 60% throughout the year, and silver surpassed all mainstream assets with a growth of more than 70%.
The core driving force of this market is not technical indicators, but the turbulence of the global monetary system? Safe haven assets revalued? .
The rising expectations of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut, the escalation of the Sino-US trade conflict, and the spillover of geopolitical risks have together constituted gold’s “safe haven premium.”
When the inversion of the U.S. bond yield curve becomes the norm, the allocation value of gold as a "zero credit risk asset" is fully activated - the global central bank's gold reserves have increased net holdings for 18 consecutive months, directly pushing the price of gold to break through the psychological mark of US$4,000.
2. Silver’s Counterattack: From “Golden Brother” to King of Industrial Metals
Silver’s explosive rise reveals a deep change in market logic. Industrial demand accounted for more than 70% of its 70% increase. Silver's "underestimation" has attracted funds to make up for the crazy growth.This supply-demand mismatch coupled with speculative sentiment has made silver a "resilient amplifier" for this bull market.
3. The truth about short-term adjustments: technical correction or trend reversal?
The 5% plunge in gold prices in a single day on November 21 caused market panic, but we must clearly understand that the essence of adjustment in a bull market is profit-taking. The current price of gold is oscillating around the long-short dividing point of US$4,180, and the technical aspect shows a "wedge consolidation" pattern.
Historical experience shows that the peak of the precious metals bull market is usually accompanied by three signals: the restart of the Fed's interest rate hike cycle, the formation of global deflation expectations, and a cliff-like decline in industrial demand. None of these three have appeared so far. Instead, short-term adjustments have provided investors with a "golden pit" - ETF funds continue to flow in net, the proportion of retail investors' positions is still lower than the historical average, and market sentiment has not yet become overheated.
4. Risk Warning: The Balance of Courage and Discipline
Although the foundation of the bull market has not changed, there are three major risks that need to be vigilant:
1: Policy black swan: If the Federal Reserve delays an interest rate cut or the trade conflict unexpectedly eases, gold prices may fall back to support at $3,800.
2: Liquidity Trap: The surge in global debt has led to increased fragility in financial markets, and extreme volatility may trigger a stampede in programmed trading.
3: Inflection point of industrial demand: If the iteration of photovoltaic technology reduces the amount of silver paste, the silver valuation system will face reconstruction.
5. Outlook for 2026: The transition from "safe haven assets" to "strategic assets"
The long-term value of gold has surpassed its traditional safe-haven properties. Against the backdrop of deepening cracks in the U.S. dollar credit system and accelerated global de-dollarization, gold is becoming the dual carrier of "currency anchor" and "strategic reserve asset."
My suggestion is to adopt a "core + satellite" strategy: core positions are allocated to gold ETFs to hedge systemic risks, and satellite positions are allocated to silver futures to capture industrial demand dividends.
Remember: People who lose money in the bull market often lose not in direction judgment, but in position management.

At present, the gold price trend structure still uses US$410 as the dividing point between long and short. The volatile market will continue below this position, and the key point below is the gain and loss of US$4,003. Only when it is broken down again can the short sellers open the door and continue the adjustment. This time gold rose from US$3,200 to US$4,400, with about US$1,200 in space. I think the limit of adjustment is in the 50% range, which is around US$3,800.
In addition, as the price of gold is getting higher and higher, the fluctuation range is also very large. It can fluctuate to tens of dollars in a few minutes. It no longer operates in a small range like before. The stop loss range of such large fluctuations in the market will naturally be enlarged. At this time, position management is particularly important.
Today, I think we will continue to look for short positions after the rebound. As long as we do not stand above $4180, our thinking is mainly high.The range is between 4180 and 4000 US dollars. Only when it breaks through 4003 US dollars can it form a weak position. Otherwise, it will be a shock within the 200 US dollars range. Considering the large price fluctuations and rapid fluctuations, the specific position is internally arranged.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Gold, the long and short dividing point of US$4180!" It was carefully www.xmh100.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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