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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
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World Finance 2021颁发
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FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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荣获 Shares Magazine 的 UK Forex Awards 2017 颁赠
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2015最佳金融交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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金融行业的佼佼者
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认证最优金牌级别
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2014年首届亚军
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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COLWMA 2024年颁赠
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023最佳外汇客户服务奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023中东最佳外汇经纪商奖
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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FX168于2020年12月颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2016最佳本土 客户服务
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中东和北非地区（MENA）增长最快的经纪商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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荣获 The Trading Show 2024年非洲 Africa Fintech 峰会颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
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World Finance 2021颁发
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FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
FOLLOWME交易社区授予
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
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荣获2018年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获 Shares Magazine 的 UK Forex Awards 2017 颁赠
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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2015年最佳本地客户服务
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2015最佳金融交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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金融行业的佼佼者
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认证最优金牌级别
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2014年首届亚军
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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COLWMA 2024年颁赠
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023最佳外汇客户服务奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023拉丁美洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023中东最佳外汇经纪商奖
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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FX168于2020年12月颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2016最佳本土 客户服务
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中东和北非地区（MENA）增长最快的经纪商
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2015年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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荣获 The Trading Show 2024年非洲 Africa Fintech 峰会颁赠
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荣获2024年中东地区 Brokersview 颁赠
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荣获2024年中东地区 Brokersview 颁赠
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2024年埃及 Smart Vision 峰会颁赠
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投查查于2024年颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2022年颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
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World Finance 2021颁发
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FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
FOLLOWME交易社区授予
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
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荣获2018年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获 Shares Magazine 的 UK Forex Awards 2017 颁赠
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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Global Brands Magazine 颁赠
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2015最佳金融交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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金融行业的佼佼者
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CATEGORIES
News
- The GBP USD technology has shown a "golden cross" and is wary of breaking throug
- Gold falls will not change the bull market, but beware
- US dollar index weakens, US CPI and GDP of many countries will join hands with "
- 7.24 Gold surges and falls and turns symmetrical long and short profits, and the
- The bears cannot catch up at $60 for a long time, and WTI may change its trading
market analysis
The bond market releases key signals as investors collectively bet on a "job recession"
Wonderful introduction:
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Platform]: The bond market releases key signals, investors collectively bet on "employment recession"". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
The continued decline in U.S. bond yields seems to indicate that investors have accurately captured the policy signal released by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell - in the current monetary policy decision-making balance, the weight of employment conditions has significantly exceeded inflation.
Although U.S. stocks have hit new highs, credit spreads have continued to narrow, and inflation remains high, U.S. bond yields have fallen instead of rising. This seemingly contradictory market performance reflects the emerging consensus among investors that concerns about the labor market are dominating the direction of monetary policy.
This consensus could trigger a self-reinforcing feedback loop - job market worries drive down yields, and falling yields in turn exacerbate worries about an economic slowdown, which in turn puts continued downward pressure on yields. Under this cyclical mechanism, any negative news about the job market may be amplified, leading to increased market volatility.
The bond market reacted coldly to the inflation data
The U.S. government shutdown entered its 23rd day on Thursday (October 23). The Senate has rejected temporary appropriation resolutions 12 times, and the political deadlock still shows no signs of easing. During the shutdown, official economic data was www.xmh100.completely missing, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to be released this Friday the focus of market attention. However, this much-anticipated data may not provide the information investors really need.
The market expects that the core inflation rate will remain at 3.1% in September, which is more than one percentage point higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target. It is worth noting that in the past five years, the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI has stood at a high of 3% or above almost every month.
However, the bond market may react tepidly. twoThe 1-year U.S. Treasury yield fell last week to its lowest level since August 2022, reflecting market expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates at next week's meeting, in December and next year.
Concerns about the job market have emerged
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has also fallen below the 4% mark, hitting its lowest closing level in more than a year on Tuesday. These signs suggest that even if inflation data exceeds expectations, it will be difficult to reverse the downward trend in yields. The technical performance of the bond market shows that investors have formed relatively consistent pessimistic expectations about the future economic prospects.
With the government shutdown and the absence of official data, investors can only rely on their own judgment of the economic outlook to fill the information vacuum. What worries the market the most is the sharp slowdown in employment growth. While the sharp deceleration in job growth has so far been largely offset by contraction in labor supply, the trend remains troubling.
Goldman Sachs economists this week systematically elaborated on the five major causes of the rapid contraction of employment growth: slowing immigration inflows, reductions in government hiring and funding, popularization of artificial intelligence technology applications, rising tariff costs and trade uncertainty, and intensifying macroeconomic growth risks. According to its calculations, the current potential trend employment growth has dropped to only 25,000 people per month, which is a significant decrease of about 125,000 people from the January forecast.
This number is also well below the "breakeven" level needed to keep the unemployment rate stable - Goldman Sachs estimates it is about 75,000 per month. It is worth noting that this is only the upper edge of the equilibrium estimate range. Dallas Fed economist Anton Cheremukhin's estimate is more conservative, putting the equilibrium level at only about 30,000 people, well below the estimate of about 250,000 two years ago.
The vulnerability of the labor market has increased
The key to the problem is that although a lower equilibrium level of employment growth helps restrain the unemployment rate from rising too quickly, it also masks the inherent vulnerability of the labor market. In this tight situation, any small negative shock could turn already weak net employment growth into negative territory. This vulnerability makes the labor market significantly less resilient to external shocks.
The Fed is clearly aware of this risk. Chairman Powell made it clear last month that although inflation remained above the 2% target, concerns about a rapidly deteriorating labor market prompted the Fed's decision to restart its rate-cutting cycle. This statement marks an important change in the Fed's policy framework. The stability of the job market has become a higher priority policy goal than inflation control.
Oil price trends provide additional evidence
In addition, the Federal Reserve and investors may have other reasons to remain "turn a blind eye" to the still high inflation rate. The signal sent by the oil market is one of them. Although the correlation between crude oil prices and inflation is no longer what it used to be, its indicative role cannot be ignored. Oil prices are currently oscillating around a five-month low ($60.05/barrel), with Brent crude oil priced at about $65.10 a barrel, down about 15% from the same period last year.
Including the International Energy AgencyMost energy analysts, including the International Energy Agency (IEA), predict that the crude oil market will continue to be in a supply-demand imbalance in the www.xmh100.coming year due to the dual pressures of increased supply and weak demand. Analysts at Eurasia Group even judged that by the end of this year, this surplus pattern may suppress oil prices to US$55 per barrel, a five-year low.
Moderate oil prices continued to put downward pressure on inflation throughout the year. While cheaper crude prices alone are not enough to return inflation to the 2% policy target, it is another key factor in explaining why the Fed and investors are shifting their focus from inflation to a shaky labor market. The continued weakening of oil prices has provided more operating space and theoretical basis for the Federal Reserve's policy shift.
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