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market analysis

Seven major events to happen in the global market this week

Wonderful Introduction:

A quiet path will always arouse a relaxed yearning in twists and turns; a huge wave, the thrilling sound can be even more stacked when the tide rises and falls; a story, only with regrets and sorrows can bring about a heart-wrenching desolation; a life, where the ups and downs show the stunning heroism.

Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex]: Seven Major Events to Become the Global Market this Week". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

Fitting up the seat belt – the market is getting busy, not just on the economic calendar. The number of non-farm employment (NFP) is ahead of Thursday, www.xmh100.competing with Washington's lawmakers and trade deals.

1. Will the trade deadline be postponed?

The U.S.-U.K. trade agreement takes effect this week — but it is the only agreement signed by Washington. When U.S. President Donald Trump announced that "reciprocal tariffs" would be delayed for three months, the White House aims to reach 90 trade deals in 90 days. This won't happen until July 9, but investors have two reasons to be happy.

First of all, the deadline is not sacred. White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt hinted that there could be such a delay, and others agreed.

Secondly, Trump may prefer speed rather than substance, and may reach a broad agreement principle, leaving details for the future. As long as higher tariffs do not take effect, investors will be satisfied with the 10% tariff.

Maybe the next country to reach an agreement with the United States is Canada. The U.S.’s northern neighbors have abandoned digital service taxes for U.S. technology www.xmh100.companies to reignite trade negotiations. Negotiations with the EU and Japan may be more difficult, and negotiations appear to be deadlocked. Relations with China are in a tense state of ceasefire.

The risk of reaching an agreement is that Trump threatens to impose tariffs on specific industries, such as the pharmaceutical industry. If the other party retains the option to impose new tariffs, why make concessions?

Optimism supports stocks and the US dollar (USD), while pessimism about trading is beneficial to gold.

2. The Great Beauty Act is www.xmh100.coming to an end

The Republican PartyCan people successfully pass the president's budget? Trump called the broad legislation the "Big Beauty Act" which includes more military spending, minor cuts to social programs and extended tax cuts. This means the U.S. deficit will increase by $3.3 trillion, the Congressional Budget Office said.

Investors are delighted by this fiscal stimulus, especially the expectation of tax cuts – but the rise in U.S. borrowing could spark tensions in the bond market. Will investors continue to buy so much U.S. debt easily? Some people expect liquidation.

The Senate is currently debating a version of the bill, and it seems that the Republican Party is expected to gain majority support. It can withstand the loss of three supporters. It will then return to the House. Trump is forcing lawmakers to deliver the bill to his desk by July 4.

The delay will not cause disaster, but any difficulty in passing the bill can cause some uneasiness in the stock market - providing excuses for some profit-taking settlements.

3. The central bank event may trigger interesting headlines

Tuesday, GMT 13:30. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, ECB President Christina Lagarde, Bank of Japan President Kazuo Ueda and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will speak on the same stage in Sintra, Portugal.

Will Powell open the door to rate cuts later this month? This is a key issue in the market. This could be driven by tariffs or artificial intelligence, which weakens job growth for tech www.xmh100.companies.

In the euro zone, has the ECB ended the rate cut within this cycle? It is not clear whether the central bank intends to pause.

For Japan, the appreciation of the yen (JPY) means that the intervention pressure faces in Tokyo is reduced, but the fate of the next rate hike seems unknown. Ueda may provide some clarity on this.

In the UK, Bailey tends to be pessimistic, and he may suggest that the Bank of England’s “Super Thursday” in early August will lead to lower borrowing costs.

4. ISM Manufacturing PMI provides the first non-agricultural employment data tips

Tuesday, GMT time at 14:00. The ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) shows that the manufacturing industry has seen a slight contraction in recent times. Will it exceed 50 and indicate expansion? According to economists, this time probably won't.

Trump's intention to revitalize the U.S. industrial sector has not boosted morale in manufacturing so far. May's 48.5 was the lowest level since November 2024 and is expected to rise slightly in June.

The employment sub-item is the first reminder of Thursday’s employment report, while the payment price data represents high inflation expectations.

Telebrity data may attract the most attention. It is worth mentioning that the JOLTs job opening report will be released at the same time, but this is the data for May, lagging behind other indicators.

5. Will ADP data be disappointing for the third time in a row?

Wednesday, GMT time 12:15. Automatic Data Processing (ADP) is the largest payroll provider in the United States, processing one-sixth of payroll. While its private sector employment reports are not always highly correlated with official employment reports, this early launch affects expectations.

ADP data has been weak in the past two months – only 60,000 jobs added in April and 37,000 in May. The forecast for June is 85,000.

Another reading below 100,000 will raise questions: Is the ADP report www.xmh100.completely out of touch with the economy? Or are there concerning potential factors that could lead to poor future non-farm employment data?

6. Non-agricultural employment data are expected to show satisfactory employment growth in another month

Thursday, GMT time 12:30. The first Friday of this month is July 4th, U.S. Independence Day, so the non-farm employment report is released in advance.

For June, economists are expected to add more than 100,000 positions again, down from the 139,000 reported in May. However, they expect the unemployment rate to rise from 4.2% to 4.3%, which will keep the Fed alert to unemployment problems due to tariffs, artificial intelligence or other factors.

Reads below 100,000 will boost gold while putting pressure on stocks and the dollar. The figures above 150,000 will boost stocks and the dollar while putting pressure on precious metals.

I will focus on labor force participation and employment population ratios, both of which have been declining recently. If the unemployment rate remains low, but the labor force shrinks due to the decline in participation rates, this is not good for the economy. A strong labor market will attract workers.

7. ISM service industry PMI may have a longer impact

Thursday, GMT time 14:00. This extensive snapshot of the largest U.S. industry will play a final role in the U.S.’s short trading week. If the non-farm employment data is unclear, it may shake the market, although it was released after the official employment report.

In May, the ISM service industry PMI was slightly below the 50-point threshold, with a result of 49.9. A slight improvement is expected in June. If the rebound exceeds April's 51.6, it will be exciting for the market, and the second reading below 50 will be worrying.

The employment sub-item may be ignored 90 minutes after the non-agricultural employment data is released, but the headline data may have a longer impact.

Last

While the war seems to be a thing of the past, trade negotiations and bills will keep traders busy, plus the busy and intensive economic calendar of the United States.

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