In June, Germany's inflation rate fell to 2.0%, and short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on June 30

Global Market Review

1. European and American market conditions

The three major futures indexes rose, Dow futures rose 0.50%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.41%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.60%. European stocks opened slightly higher collectively, with the European Stoke 50 index rising 0.3%, the German DAX index rising 0.5%, the UK FTSE 100 index rising 0.1%, and the French CAC40 index rising 0.25%.

2. Market news interpretation

In June, Germany's inflation rate fell to 2.0% unexpectedly fell

Preliminary data released by the German Federal Statistics Office on Monday showed that Germany's inflation slowed in June, and the market expected that Germany's price pressure would rise slightly. Inflation in Germany fell to 2.0% year-on-year, with analysts expecting a rise to 2.2% higher than last month. Germany's core inflation rate (excluding volatile food and energy prices) fell from 2.8% last month to 2.7% in June. On Tuesday, the euro zone will release inflation data, with economists expecting inflation in the euro zone to rise from 1.9% to the 2% target set by the European Central Bank. In addition, the German Statistics Office said on Monday that Germany's import prices fell by 1.1% year-on-year.

The EU will extend sanctions against Russia for another 6 months

On June 30, local time, the EU Council announced that it had decided to extend sanctions against Russia for another 6 months until January 31, 2026. The relevant measures were first proposed in 2014 and have been significantly expanded since February 2022. Measures cover Russian trade and finance, energy, technology and dual-use products in many fields.

Germany will provide more than 9 billion euros of aid to Ukraine in 2025

On June 30, local time, German Foreign Minister Wadefur announced when he visited Kiev that Germany will provide more than 9 billion euros of aid to Ukraine in 2025, of which 2 billion euros are specifically used for air defense systems, missiles and ammunition. He said that the relevant aid will help Ukraine gain an advantage in possible future negotiations. On the same day, Wadfur arrived in Kyiv and began an official visit to Ukraine. He promised Germany would continue to provide military support to Ukraine, revealing that the aid would not only include modern air defense systems and other weapons, but also humanitarian and economic assistance.

The Russian Central Bank may cut interest rates by more than 1 percentage point in July

⑴ The Russian Central Bank's board of directors may consider cutting interest rates by more than 1 percentage point at its meeting on July 25, Deputy Governor Alexei Zabotkin said on Monday. ⑵ If the economic, labor market, credit activity, actual inflation and inflation expectations received at that time indicate that inflation slows to 4% in line with a larger rate cut, this option will also be considered, Zabotkin told reporters. ⑶ At the last meeting on June 6, regulators lowered key interest rates by 1 percentage point to 20%. Zabotkin said the rate cut in the next meeting could be "more significant than the June meeting." ⑷ The central bank expects inflation to slow from 9.5% in 2024 to 7% to 8% in 2025, and to reach its 4% target in 2026.

French Power www.xmh100.company EDF planned maintenance has caused the Graflin 4 reactor to be suspended

⑴French Power www.xmh100.company (EDF)'s 910 MW Graflin 4 reactor has been suspended from operation from 23:30 on May 16, 2025 to 13:00 on July 1, 2025 for planned maintenance. ⑵The reactor was shut down due to planned maintenance work, not sudden failure or emergency situations. ⑶This maintenance is part of the EDF's regular operations and aims to ensure the safe and efficient operation of nuclear power plants.

India's June rainfall exceeded the average level by 9%

⑴India's June rainfall was 9% higher than the long-term average level, and the monsoon covered the whole country in advance, data from the Meteorological Bureau showed. ⑵ Monsoon is crucial to India's nearly $4 trillion economy, providing nearly 70% of the precipitation required for agriculture and replenishing aquifers and reservoirs. ⑶ Nearly half of India's farmland has no irrigation facilities and relies on monsoon rainfall from June to September to promote crop growth. ⑷ Data from the Indian Meteorological Bureau showed that rainfall in the central and northwest regions was above average in June, while rainfall in the northeast was below average. ⑸ Indian monsoon covers the whole country 9 days in advance and sows summer crops in advance.

UK mortgage loans unexpectedly rose, consumer loans cooled down

⑴UK mortgage loans were approved unexpectedly in May. According to data from the Bank of England, the housing market quickly recovered after the tax incentives for home purchases ended in April. ⑵ Mortgage loans were approved from April 60656 transactions rose to 63,032, surpassing the 59,750 transactions surveyed by Reuters economists. ⑶KPMG Financial Services Global and UK heads said a gradual decline in interest rates may help boost confidence and demand among mortgage borrowers. ⑷Bank of England data shows that the number of refinancing approved in May is the highest since February 2024. ⑸ The net mortgage loan amount - reflecting www.xmh100.completed home purchases - turned from a decline of nearly £800 million in April to a net increase of £2.054 billion in May. ⑹Bank of England data shows that consumption-free borrowing growth is slightly lower than expected, which may indicate a recovery in consumption capacity. ⑺ From a cash perspective, consumer credit rose by 86 million pounds from £1.94 billion in April, lower than the £1.05 billion increase in Reuters surveyed. ⑻Haji added that the cost of living is still high, but the decline in consumer lending in May indicates that income growth is starting to affect daily expenses. ⑼ The Bank of England held interest rates at 4.25% earlier this month, and investors expect the central bank to reduce borrowing costs to 3.75% by two rate cuts by the end of the year.

Inflation in many German states falls, national inflation pressure may ease

⑴ Preliminary data show that the inflation rate in Bavaria in Germany fell from 2.1% in May to 1.8%, North Rhine-Westphalia fell from 2.0% to 1.8%, and Lower Saxony fell slightly from 2.3% to 2.2%. ⑵ Baden-Württemberg inflation rose slightly from 2.2% to 2.3%. ⑶ Reuters survey shows that economists expect Germany to reconcile inflation at 2.2% in June, slightly higher than 2.1% in May. As the largest economy in the euro zone, Germany's inflation trend has attracted much attention.

Trump tariffs www.xmh100.combined with low water levels have caused the "ships" in European ports. According to the Financial Times, shipping and logistics www.xmh100.companies have warned that Trump's unstable tariff policies, coupled with the low river water levels, are causing the worst supply chain congestion in Europe since the epidemic. Barges have been waiting for loading for several days, container ships are also facing long waits, and the problem is expected to last for at least a few months - most severe in the ports of Rotterdam, Antwerp and Hamburg. "All large hub ports are full of 'ships'," said Caesar Lukner, managing director of the Netherlands-based shipping www.xmh100.company WECLines. Lukner said many important ports in Europe are operating at maximum capacity. Albert van Oman, CEO of the Netherlands-based logistics www.xmh100.company Euro-RijnGroup, said he believes the congestion was the worst since the pandemic, when cargo flows remained unexpectedly resilient, overwhelmingly underhanded ports.

The Swiss franc plummeted in the first quarter, and the Swiss central bank still did not interfere in the foreign exchange market

As the Swiss franc depreciated against the euro, the Swiss central bank continued to avoid manipulating the Swiss franc at the beginning of this year, and basically did not interfere in the foreign exchange market for the fifth consecutive quarter. Data released on Monday showed that the Swiss National Bank bought only 49 million Swiss francs of foreign exchange from January to March. This is consistent with previous quartersThe Swiss National Bank purchased relatively few Swiss francs throughout 2024. This shows that officials see no reason to intervene, and the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly cut interest rates in December, convinced investors to pull funds out of the Swiss franc. During the same period (first quarter), the Swiss franc fell 1.7% against the euro, but rose 2.8% against the US dollar. This is most likely because President Trump's tariff threat has intensified during this time. When he announced a full "peer" tariff on April 2, the Swiss franc hit an all-time high against the US dollar.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the market

Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD fell and is now at 1.1717, a drop of 0.02%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the euro against the U.S. dollar price fell at the recent intraday level in the mid-day trading level in an attempt to gain positive momentum that could help break through that resistance as the main bullish trend dominated in the short term and traded along a slash line, where positive pressure continues in addition to the positive signal on the (RSI) due to its trading above the EMA50.

GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell and is now at 1.3691, a drop of 0.17%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (GBPUSD) price rose on the last trading day, with a major bullish trend dominating on a short-term basis, and its trading followed a slash, taking advantage of the dynamic support it represents on the exchange above the EMA50, and in addition, after reaching the oversold level, a positive divergence began to form on the (RSI), where a positive signal emerged, strengthening the bullish overview around the price.

Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3283.85, an increase of 0.29%. Before the New York Stock Market, the price of (gold) closed high in the last intraday trading after it approached from our main resistance target of $3300 in the morning, supported by positive signals appearing on (RSI), noting that it reached an overbought level, indicating the loss of positive momentum around the price in the short-term bearish correction trend and trading along the bias line, with the continued negative pressure due to its trading price below EMA50.

Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now at 35.949, a drop of 0.03%. Before New York, the price of (silver) fell in the last intraday trading as it was limited to negative pressure and short-term pressure on exchanges below EMA50The slightly bullish trend line between the trend lines, which provides positive impetus as the (RSI) positive signal emerges.

Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, now at 65.350, a drop of 0.26%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (crude oil) price continued to consolidate sideways in a narrow trading at the intraday level, creating a volatility area in its upcoming trend in the short term, in its trading dominance below the EMA50, on the other hand, we noticed positive signals (RSI).

4. Institutional view

Citigroup: Eurozone bond yield spreads are expected to narrow by the end of the year

Citigroup rate strategists said in a report that the eurozone bond yield spread has remained flexible amid the recent geopolitical tensions and is expected to narrow further in the www.xmh100.coming months. "Although risks remain before the upcoming July 9 tariff deadline, we are positive and expect the spread of most UK-German Treasury bonds to tighten by the end of the year," they said. Citi strategists expect the 10-year Spanish-German Treasury yield spread to narrow from the current 64 basis points to 50 basis points. They also expect the yield gap between the 10-year Italian government bonds and German government bonds to narrow from 89 basis points to 75 basis points. They said: "This view is supported by the fiscal stimulus plan announced by Germany last week." Institutions: It is expected that the output value of automotive LED and headlights in 2025 will grow to US$3.451 billion and US$35.729 billion respectively. TrendForce released a report saying that looking forward to 2025, due to the continued impact of the overall economic uncertainty, it can be expected that 2025 will face greater pressure to decline. However, according to TrendForce's analysis of the on-hand order performance of automotive LED manufacturers, production in the auto market is expected to recover again in 2H25. In addition, the car model continues to introduce advanced technology in 2026, and it is expected that the market output value of automotive LED and headlights in 2025 will grow to US$3.451 billion and US$35.729 billion respectively.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange]: Germany's inflation rate dropped to 2.0% in June, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on June 30" was carefully www.xmh100.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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