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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2015最佳金融交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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FX168于2020年12月颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2016最佳本土 客户服务
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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荣获2024年迪拜 Forex Traders Summit 颁赠
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2024年埃及 Smart Vision 峰会颁赠
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投查查于2024年颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2022年颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
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荣获 Shares Magazine 的 UK Forex Awards 2017 颁赠
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荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2017
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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2016年最佳外汇经纪商
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2015年最佳本地客户服务
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Global Brands Magazine 颁赠
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2015最佳金融交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023欧洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023中东最佳外汇经纪商奖
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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FX168于2020年12月颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2016最佳本土 客户服务
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中东和北非地区（MENA）增长最快的经纪商
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2015年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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荣获 The Trading Show 2024年非洲 Africa Fintech 峰会颁赠
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荣获2024年中东地区 Brokersview 颁赠
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荣获2024年阿曼 Smart Vision 峰会颁赠
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荣获2024年迪拜外汇博览会颁赠
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荣获2024年迪拜 Forex Traders Summit 颁赠
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2024年埃及 Smart Vision 峰会颁赠
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投查查于2024年颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2022年颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
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荣获2018年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获 Shares Magazine 的 UK Forex Awards 2017 颁赠
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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Global Brands Magazine 颁赠
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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金融行业的佼佼者
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认证最优金牌级别
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2014年首届亚军
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market analysis
The US dollar hits a low of more than three years again, paying attention to employment data
Wonderful introduction:
Optimism is the line of egrets that are straight up to the blue sky, optimism is the thousands of white sails beside the sunken boat, optimism is the lush grass that blows with the wind on the head of the parrot island, optimism is the falling red spots that turn into spring mud to protect the flowers.
Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: The US dollar has once again hit a low of more than three years, pay attention to employment data." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On the Asian session on Tuesday, the US dollar index hovered around 96.72. This week's US economic data attracted much attention from the market, especially the June non-farm employment report to be released on Thursday. According to a Reuters survey, economists expect 110,000 new jobs to be created in June, down from 139,000 in May, and the unemployment rate may rise slightly from 4.2% to 4.3%. These data will provide key clues to assessing the health of the U.S. labor market and directly impact the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path. In addition, major central banks around the world (Feder Chairman Powell, European Central Bank President Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Bailey, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, and Bank of Korea Governor Lee Changyong) held a group meeting; the European Central Bank held a central bank forum in Sintra.
Analysis of major currencies
U.S. dollar: As of press time, the US dollar index hovered around 96.72. As the U.S. stock index performed strongly in the second quarter of 2025, setting a record high, market sentiment remained positive. As a result, the US dollar (USD) approached a multi-year low as markets expected a substantial increase in fiscal deficits and market participants expected the Federal Reserve to relax more than 50 basis points (bps), pushing the euro to a four-year high. Technically, at the daily level, the US dollar index moving average system is short-selling: 50-day (99.2861), 100-day (101.6780) and 200-day moving average (103.8683) form layer-by-layer suppression. Although the MACD indicator is in the negative range (DIFF-0.5780, DEA-0.4894), the bar chart narrowed to -0.1771, indicating that the action energy is slightly weakened in the short term. RSI (14) is 33.4343, close to the oversold area.Beware of the risk of technical rebound.
1. Federal Reserve policy path
Powell's Congressional testimony was interpreted by the market last week as a clear dovish signal. It stated that "if summer inflation does not rebound due to tariff remarks, it will be appropriate to cut interest rates", which directly promoted the shift in interest rate futures pricing. However, Francesco Pesole, strategist at Dutch International, pointed out that the market may be overpriced and loose expectations: "If non-farm employment only slows down moderately, coupled with the possible rebound in inflation in the www.xmh100.coming months, it will force investors to pull back some of the bets on interest rate cuts." Data from the London Stock Exchange Group shows that at present, 7The probability of a monthly interest rate cut is only 21%, indicating that the market is more inclined to wait for action in September.
2. Fed Bostic: Still expected the Fed to lower interest rates once this year
Fed Bostic reiterated on Monday that he still expects the Fed to lower interest rates once this year, and pointed out that the Fed still has time to consider the latest data before deciding to take action. Bostic said he expects a rate cut in 2025, "My position is still there", noting that he expects three rates next year. "I think we are actually patient to keep interest rates unchanged for the time being, because the labor market is actually quite stable."
3. Germany's unexpected inflation cooled down in June to reach the European Central Bank target for the first time in nearly a year
The German Federal Statistics Office said on Monday that consumer prices rose 2% year-on-year in June, lower than the 2.1% increase in May. Economists had expected inflation to accelerate slightly to 2.2% in June. For the eurozone's largest economies, the June data showed a mixed situation. Although inflation in France and Spain rose slightly, Italy remained stable. The data are unlikely to prompt ECB officials to change their view that inflation targets are expected to continue to be met this year. Overall inflation data for the 20 countries in the euro zone will be released on Tuesday, with analysts expecting 2%, slightly higher than 1.9% in May. The next meeting of the European Central Bank will be held in July and is expected to suspend interest rate cuts. Since June 2024, the ECB has lowered deposit rates eight times, currently at 2%.
4. US Secretary of Agriculture: Trump may impose tariff exemptions on agricultural products that are not easy to grow in the United States
According to reports, US Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins said that the Trump administration may consider imposing tariff exemptions on goods that are difficult to grow in the United States (such as cocoa beans or coffee). Currently, these goods are included in the scope of www.xmh100.comprehensive tariffs, and Democrats attack Republicans to raise costs.
5. Turkish President: Ankara will host the 2026 NATO Summit
Turkish President Erdogan announced on the 30th that Ankara, the capital of Turkey, will host the 2026 NATO Summit. Erdogan said at a press conference after the cabinet meeting that day that the 2026 NATO summit will be held in Ankara in July 2026, and Türkiye will host NATO member leaders. Erdogan also introduced his attendance at this year's NATO summit at the press conference. He said Türkiye called for lifting restrictions on trade in defense industrial products within the framework of the NATO alliance. Türkiye joined NATO in 1952. Turkey connects Europe and the Middle East, is an important economy in the region, and has an important impact on the stability of Southeast Europe and the Middle East.
Institutional View
1. Goldman Sachs advanced its forecast for the Fed rate cut to September
Goldman Sachs advanced its forecast for the Fed rate cut and is now expected to resume interest rate cuts in September rather than December, because the impact of tariffs on inflation "looks more thanExpectations are smaller. The economic team, led by chief economist Jan Hatzius, wrote: "We believe the chances of a rate cut in September are slightly higher than 50%, and we see several possible paths - lower-than-expected tariff effects, larger anti-inflation effects, weak labor markets or panic caused by monthly volatility. "We suspect that the Fed leadership is consistent with our view that tariffs will only have a one-time impact on price levels. "Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points three times this year in September, October and December, and lower its terminal interest rate forecast from the previous 3.5%-3.25% to 3.25%. Analysts added: "No rate cuts are expected in July unless the employment data this week is much worse than expected. ”
2. Deutsche Bank: The outlook for the dollar depends on the drivers behind the rate cut bets
Thu Lan Nguyen, an analyst at www.xmh100.commerzbank, believes that the outlook for the dollar depends on the reasons behind the Fed's expectation of interest rate hikes. She said that if the bet for interest rate cuts is driven by the impact of inflation on U.S. tariffs is more limited than previously expected, the dollar is likely to rebound in the short term. However, if these expectations are due to the assumption that the Fed will succumb to political pressure, the dollar will face further declines. The market generally expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in July. She said if any politics Policymakers voted against the proposal in favor of rate cuts, which could intensify concerns that the Fed would become more politicized.
3. Institutions: If Lagarde spoke at the central bank forum, he was biased towards a “hawkish”, the euro could rise.
Analysts said in a report that if ECB President Lagarde expressed doubts about further rate cuts at the central bank forum held in Sintra, Portugal, the euro could appreciate further. "Although we doubt whether there will be a clear and obvious shift in her monetary policy perspective, we do think she will elaborate on the conditions needed to maintain current policy levels. "Analysts said that her remarks may be biased towards "hawkish", prompting the market to cut its bet on interest rate cuts and support the euro.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: The US dollar has once again refreshed its lows for more than three years, paying attention to employment data". It was carefully www.xmh100.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your transaction! Thanks for your support!
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