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market analysis

The US index touches key support areas, Europe and the United States temporarily treat it on the right side

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The US index touches key support areas, and Europe and the United States are temporarily treated on the right side." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

Macro

The uncertainty of the global economy has intensified recently, and the gold market has performed well. Gold prices rose 0.87% on Monday, bottoming out at $3,247.87 per ounce and rebounded strongly. It continued its upward trend in the early trading on Tuesday. The gold price rose by 5.5% in the second quarter, and it was red for two consecutive quarters. This round of gold prices rose mainly due to the weakening of the US dollar. The US dollar index hit its worst performance in the first half of the year since the 1970s, and market concerns about the widening US fiscal deficit and uncertain trade agreements have weakened the attractiveness of the US dollar. At the same time, global trade and geopolitical fluctuations, such as the Sino-US rare earth agreement, the progress of US-EU trade negotiations, and the uncertainty of the July 9 tariff deadline, have strengthened the gold hedging attributes. The focus of this week is Thursday's US non-farm employment report. The market expects 110,000 new jobs to be created, and the unemployment rate may rise to 4.3%, which will directly affect the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Although the Fed is cautious about rate cuts, the market generally expects to restart interest rate cuts in September, with the annual rate cut of 66 basis points. Trump's pressure on the Fed has also increased policy uncertainty. Gold is driven by multiple factors, but the future trend still depends on employment, inflation and tariff policies. Investors need to pay close attention to data and policy trends.

Dollar Index

In terms of the performance of the US dollar index, the US dollar index showed a downward trend on Monday. The price of the US dollar index rose to 97.294 on the day, and fell to 96.741 at the lowest, and finally closed at 96.746. Looking back at the market performance on Monday, the price was under pressure at the four-hour resistance position during the early trading session, and then it showed a volatile and downward state. Finally, the day's heavy-tongued state ended and closed.The trading is at a low level. The current price is close to the support range of 96.40-96.50, and the key to paying attention to whether this position can obtain support is the key.

From a multi-cycle analysis, the price is suppressed in the 99.40 area resistance at the weekly level, so from a medium-term perspective, the trend of the US dollar index will be more bearish. At the daily level, the key price resistance position is at 97.90 position over time. The current price is below this position, so we need to pay attention to further continuation for the time being, but the current price is close to the support area of the upward trend line, and we need to pay attention to the support situation of the trend line in the future. At the same time, the price continues to be under pressure over the four hours. In the short term, we need to pay attention to the resistance in the 97 area. The price is short at this position, but although it is short at the moment, we need to pay attention to the market bottoming out and rebounding performance. In addition, from the short-term downward channel, the 96.40-96.50 area below is also the lower edge of the channel, so it is important to focus on whether this position can support the rise in the future.

The US index has a long range of 96.40-50, with a defense of 5 US dollars, and a target of 97-97.50

European and the United States

In terms of Europe and the United States, prices in Europe and the United States generally showed an upward trend on Monday. The price fell to 1.1707 at the lowest point on the day, and rose to 1.1787 at the highest point and closed at 1.1787 at the lowest point. Looking back at the performance of European and American markets on Monday, the price first opened high in the short term during the early trading session, and then the price continued to fluctuate and rise, and the position continued to rise based on the four-hour support. The price continued to rise based on the support of the low point in the morning. The daily line ended with a big positive state. Overall, Europe and the United States are still bulls, but considering the performance of the US index, the current bulls in Europe and the United States need to be cautious and pay attention to the gains and losses of the four-hour watershed at any time. Once it breaks down, it is necessary to turn around. Currently, it is enough to treat it on the right side.

From a multi-cycle analysis, from the perspective of the monthly line level, Europe and the United States are supported at 1.0850, so long-term bulls are treated, and the monthly line will close today, so focus on closing performance. From the weekly level, the price is supported by the 1.1380 area, and from the perspective of the mid-line, the price decline is temporarily treated as a correction in the mid-line rise. From the daily level, as time goes by, we need to focus on the 1.1605 regional watershed, and the temporary bands above this position are treated more frequently. From the four-hour level, you need to pay attention to the 1.1740-50 regional support. This position is the key to the short-term trend. The price can be treated more than the price above this position. However, considering the situation of the US index, once Europe and the United States breaks, we need to pay attention to market adjustments.

Europe and the United States have a lot of ranges of 1.1740-50, defense is 40 points, and target is 1.1790-1.1840 (four-hour short-term watershed, temporaryTreat it in the right way)

[Finance data and events that are of focus today] Tuesday, July 1, 2025

①To be determined Domestic refined oils open a new round of price adjustment window

②14:00 UK June Nationwide House Price Index Monthly Rate

③14:30 Switzerland May Real Retail Sales Annual Rate

④15:50 France June Manufacturing PMI Final Value

⑤15:55 Germany June Manufacturing PMI Final Value

⑥15:55 Germany June Seasonal Adjusted Unemployment

⑦15:55 Germany June Seasonal Adjusted Unemployment Rate

⑧16:00 Eurozone June Manufacturing PMI Final Value

⑨16:30 UK June Manufacturing Final value of PMI

⑩17:00 Eurozone June CPI annual rate initial value

17:00 Eurozone June CPI monthly rate initial value

21:30 Governors of major central banks around the world held group talks

21:45 U.S. June S&P Global Manufacturing PMI

22:00 U.S. June ISM Manufacturing PMI

22:00 U.S. May JOLTs job vacancy

22:00 U.S. May Construction Expenditure Monthly Rate

The next day 04:30 U.S. to June 28 API crude oil inventories

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