Increased supply of OPEC+ drags oil prices down by nearly 2%, Fed rate cut expectations heat up Gold prices rise to nearly two-week highs

Basic news

On Wednesday (August 6, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around $3,380.80/ounce, and gold prices climbed to a nearly two-week high on Tuesday, supported by rising expectations of a US interest rate cut, while investors were waiting for President Trump to make a decision on the appointment of the Federal Reserve; U.S. crude oil trading was around $65.30/barrel, oil prices fell nearly 2% on Tuesday, and the increase in OPEC+ supply and concerns about weak global demand overshadowed the impact of US President Trump's threat to India's purchase of Russian oil.

Stock Market

U.S. stocks closed down on Tuesday as Yum Catering Group YUM.N and other www.xmh100.companies mentioned trade tariffs in their performance or outlook, and investors weighed the impact of tariffs. The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in June as consumer goods imports plummeted, and an indicator of U.S. service activity stalled in July, with www.xmh100.companies saying new import taxes are pushing up costs.

KFC parent Yum Catering Group's second-quarter performance failed to meet expectations because huge trade tariffs restricted consumer spending. The www.xmh100.company's shares fell 5.1%. Caterpillar rose 0.1%, and the www.xmh100.company warned that U.S. tariffs would present major challenges in the second half of this year and would cause up to $1.5 billion in losses in 2025. The second-quarter U.S. financial report season is www.xmh100.coming to an end, in which about 80% of the S&P 500 www.xmh100.companies' financial reports exceeded analysts' earnings expectations.

Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at Bank of America Wealth Management, said: "If you look at the financial report, their trend is higher than low expectations. The impact of tariffsThe sound is still gradually emerging. We have not seen any substantial impact on the profitability of the www.xmh100.company. But we know that their threats remain. "

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.14% to 44,111.74 points; the S&P 500 fell 0.49% to 6,299.19 points; and the Nasdaq fell 0.65% to 20,916.55 points.

Trump said Tuesday that the United States may impose "small tariffs" on drug imports before raising the tax rate. He also said that it will announce tariffs on semiconductors and chips "in the next week or so."

S "Today's market behavior reflects investors are just on the wait-and-see state," andven said, noting that the stock market environment remains constructive this year.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have recently hit record highs, with the S&P 500 still up 7.1% so far this year.

In other results-related news, Marriott International lowered its full-year revenue growth and profit expectations and said slowing travel demand and uncertainty in the economy. The www.xmh100.company's stocks Prices closed up 0.2%. While the financial period is nearing its end, investors are looking forward to more key earnings on Wednesday, with Walt Disney and McDonald's both set to release their earnings. Gold prices climbed to nearly two-week highs on Tuesday, supported by rising expectations of a U.S. rate cut, while investors awaiting President Trump's decision on the Fed's appointment. Spot gold was $3,380.20 per ounce, up 0.2%, after hitting its highest level since July 24 . U.S. gold futures closed up 0.2% to $3,434.7.

The June employment data released last Friday was unexpectedly weak, followed by Trump's firing of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics director, and the market has priced two interest rate cuts that began in September before the end of the year.

Donald Securities www.xmh100.commodity strategist Daniel Ghali said: "The market is still digesting the impact of the Trump administration's decision to replace the Bureau of Labor Statistics director. Both of these things drive gold’s strength and do confirm our view that the dollar is partially losing its store of value function. "

Meanwhile, Trump said he will soon announce an interim replacement for Fed Director Coogler (who announced her resignation last Friday), and his nominee for the next Fed chairman.

Spot silver rose 1.2% to $37.85 an ounce, the highest since July 30. Platinum fell 1% to $1,316.35; palladium fell 2.1% to $1,181.21.

Oil market

Oil prices fell on Tuesday, with increased OPEC+ supply and concerns about weak global demand overshadowed the impact of U.S. President Trump's threat to India's purchase of Russian oil.

Brent crude futures fell 1.63%, the settlement price was $67.64 per barrel. U.S. crude oil futures fell 1.7% to settle at $65.16. The settlement prices of both indicators were the lowest in five weeks.

OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, a move that means ending its recent production cuts ahead of schedule.

LipowOil Associates President Andrew Lipow said: "The sharp increase in OPEC supply has brought pressure to the market."

U.S. service industry activity was basically flat in July, with orders not changing much, and employment further weakening, but the cost of investment reached the largest increase in the past three years, highlighting the continued drag on www.xmh100.companies in the Trump administration's tariff policy. This puts pressure on oil prices. "The market will now focus on whether India agrees to significantly reduce Russian crude oil purchases in order to find other alternative supplies," Lipow said. "Trump again threatened again on Tuesday that he would impose higher tariffs on Indian goods for buying Russian oil. He also said a drop in energy prices could force Russian President Putin to stop the Ukrainian war. New Delhi called Trump's threat "unreasonable" and vowed to protect its economic interests, which exacerbated the trade rift between the two countries.

Foreign market

The dollar rose on Tuesday but still hovered near the lows hit last Friday, with the market still consolidating, and a weak jobs report strengthened expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut next month. Investors are also paying attention to President Trump’s nomination for the Fed’s director and his choice for the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Eugene Epstein, head of trading and structural products at Moneycorp, said, "We are basically adjusting now after the employment data is released. The Fed is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, nor really see any signs of inflation, or maybe just a little bit of inflation. So from now until the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) next week, we are basically in a purgatory state. The dollar is consolidating and waiting for this data."

Wall Street economists surveyed by Reuters expect core CPI to rise 0.3% and 3.0% month-on-month and year-on-year respectively in July. In addition to economic data, the market is also paying attention to the Fed's personnel changes, which may turn it to a more dovish and in line with Trump's aspirations.

Trump said Tuesday that he will soon announce the short-term successor to Fed Director Coogler and the next president. Kugler resigned last Friday. Current Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's term will end in May 2026, and Trump ruled out the option of U.S. Treasury Secretary Becente to take over him.

Trump said Becente hopes to continue in his current position, adding that the White House is considering four candidates to replace Powell.

Moneycorp's Epstein noted: "You can say that Kugler's successor will be dovish about interest rates, and in turn, thisThis means that the US dollar will soften in the future. ”

Trump also fired Erika McEntarfer, director of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, last Friday, after data showed that employment growth in July was weaker than expected and that the employment growth in the first two months was significantly revised down. He said on Sunday that he would announce the new Bureau of Labor Statistics director within three to four days.

The data released on Tuesday had little impact on the foreign exchange market. U.S. service industry activity was unexpectedly flat in July, orders were almost unchanged, and employment became softer, but the cost of inputs hit the biggest increase in nearly three years.

In afternoon trading, the euro was flat against the U.S. dollar at 1.1569 US dollars RMB. This pushes the U.S. dollar index up 0.2% to 98.81, a week-low hitting a week-low 98.609.

Frequency futures markets now expect the Fed to cut interest rates at next month’s meeting after a weak U.S. jobs report is released, www.xmh100.compared with 35% a week ago.

The market also expects a 60 basis point cut by the end of December and a 130 basis point cut by October 2026, 30 basis points, more than expected before last Friday’s U.S. jobs data were released.

Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three times in a row, 25 basis points each starting in September, and a 50 basis point cut if the next jobs report shows a further rise in unemployment rate.

The dollar rose 0.4% against the yen to 147.66 yen. Minutes of the Bank of Japan's June meeting showed that some policymakers believe that once trade frictions caused by U.S. tariffs ease, there is room for a rate hike.

However, investors are still concerned about the uncertainty of tariffs, with Trump placing tariffs on imported products from dozens of countries last week, aggravating people's global economy Health concerns. The Swiss franc fell slightly to 0.8077 against the dollar, down 0.5% on the previous trading day.

International News

Trump threatened to take over Washington, D.C.

Trump reiterated his threat to take over Washington, D.C. He said the crime problem in Washington, D.C. was “out of control.” He added that if Washington, D.C. “Don’t take action”, the United States would “have no choice but to let the federal government take over the city”, “If this continues, I will exercise my power to federally manage the city. ”

Ukrainian Prime Minister: The first meeting of the board of directors of the Ukrainian Reconstruction Investment Fund is scheduled to be held in September

On August 5, local time, Ukrainian Prime Minister Sverrikenko posted on his official social platform that he had a call with US Treasury Secretary Becent, and the two sides discussed the launch of the Ukrainian Reconstruction Investment Fund. The first meeting of the fund board is scheduled to be held in September this year, with the goal of launching the first three projects in the next 18 months. She said that the two sides are www.xmh100.committed to expanding the functional mandate of the fund so that it can also invest in the defense field. During the call,Sverigenko particularly highlighted the potential defense agreements proposed by Ukrainian President Zelensky, including the production and sale of Ukrainian drones and the possible procurement of U.S. weapons. The two sides also exchanged views on strengthening sanctions against Russia and cooperation with international financial organizations, and agreed to continue to maintain dialogue at the work level.

The Trump administration will officially cancel Musk's "weekly report" plan

On August 5, local time, people familiar with the matter revealed that the Trump administration plans to officially cancel a "weekly report" plan initiated by Elon Musk as early as the day, which requires federal employees to summarize five work achievements in the previous week. The White House and the Federal Personnel Administration have not immediately responded to requests for www.xmh100.comment. On February 22, Musk, then head of the "Government Efficiency Department", said that in accordance with the instructions of US President Trump, all federal government employees will receive an email asking federal government employees to list the five tasks they have www.xmh100.completed in the past week, and employees who fail to reply to the email at 23:59 on February 24 will be deemed to be resigned. This move was opposed by many government departments and Democrats.

Zelensky: Supporting the US ceasefire initiative to call for sanctions against Russia

On August 5, local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky said in a regular evening video speech that day that day that he had a call with US President Trump. The most important issue was how to end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict as soon as possible. Zelensky said that Ukraine fully supports the "immediate ceasefire" initiative proposed by the United States. In order to achieve the ceasefire, Ukraine has tried various solutions and forms of dialogue. "Ukraine once proposed the "air silence" initiative to Russia - that is, to www.xmh100.completely stop missile and drone attacks and stop attacking civilian infrastructure, especially energy systems. However, Russia has repeatedly blatantly violated these consensuses."

Trump said that drug and chip tariffs will be announced "about the next week".

U.S. President Donald Trump said that the tariffs imposed by the United States on semiconductor and drug imports will be announced "about the next week." Currently, the government is ready to aim at key economic areas and strive to reshape global trade. “We will impose lower tariffs on drugs at the beginning, but within a year, no more than one and a half years, the tariffs will rise to 150% and then to 250% because we want the drugs to be produced in our country,” Trump said in an interview with www.xmh100.comBC on Tuesday. “We will announce measures on semiconductors and chips, which is another category,” the president also said.

Redefine "general AI", Google DeepMind launches the world model Genie3

Google DeepMind announced the launch of the third generation of universal world model Genie3, which can generate an unprecedentedly diverse interactive environment and give text prompts. Genie3 can generate a dynamic world, which can navigate in real time at a speed of 24 frames per second, and maintain consistency for several minutes at a resolution of 720p. With previous generation models (such as Genie1/2) and videosCompared with generative models (such as Veo2 and Veo3's deep understanding of intuitive physics), Genie3 is the first world model to allow real-time interaction, and Genie's consistency and realism have also been improved www.xmh100.compared to Genie.

Russia is said to consider an air ceasefire but will not agree to a full ceasefire

While Russia is firmly continuing to advance its military operations, the Kremlin is weighing concessions to U.S. President Trump, which may include an air ceasefire agreement with Ukraine in an attempt to avoid secondary sanctions. People familiar with the matter said that although there is little expectation from the outside world to successfully reach an agreement, U.S. Special Envoy for the Middle East, Witkov, visited Russia this week, was seen by Russia as one of the last chances to reach an agreement with Trump. One of the people familiar with the matter said that the suspension of air strikes, including drones and missiles, may be a potential proposal for easing the situation, provided that Ukraine also participates in the signing. However, Russian President Putin will not agree to a full ceasefire agreement in Ukraine because the Russian army is still advancing steadily on the battlefield and Russia's goals have not changed.

Two former U.S. Treasury Secretary warns of risks facing the U.S. Treasury market

Two former officials who served as U.S. Treasury Secretary during the global financial crisis warned about the possible risks facing the U.S. Treasury market, covering a range of issues ranging from unsustainable fiscal paths to concerns about the Washington political system. As for federal borrowing, “our current trajectory is unsustainable,” former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said in an interview with www.xmh100.comBC on Tuesday. “I don’t know if this means it will hit a wall in six months, or six years, or when.” Timothy Geithner, who succeeded Paulson in early 2009, said in the same www.xmh100.comBC interview that the 10-year Treasury bond yield “is at a fairly moderate level, reflecting some degree of basic confidence that the United States will govern the country rationally.” "But it ultimately depends on whether the system can restore balance between income and expenditure and lower the deficit a little," Geithner said, and maintain elements that give people confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds, such as the rule of law and the independence of the Federal Reserve. "Compared with the past period of time, these aspects are currently facing greater shadows."

Domestic News

The maximum power load of Sichuan power grid reached 73.56 million kilowatts for the third time this year

On the evening of August 5, the official WeChat account of State Grid Sichuan Power www.xmh100.company reported that in recent days, due to the continuous high temperature, sunny and hot weather, the cooling load of air conditioners and other factors has surged. At 21:21 on August 4, the maximum electricity load of Sichuan power grid reached 73.56 million kilowatts, the third time this year it hit a record high, an increase of 6% from the maximum load of 69.29 million kilowatts last year. At present, the Sichuan power grid is running smoothly and the power supply is safe and reliable. At present, the total installed capacity of Sichuan power grid is 150 million kilowatts, and all kinds of power sources such as hydropower, new energy, thermal power, etc. are realized, and all power sources purchased from outside the province are purchased.

The progress exceeds 80%! The second domestically produced large shipMore than 300 cruise ship equipment has reached www.xmh100.completion status

It was learned from China Shipbuilding Corporation that today (August 5), the first main generator of the second domestically produced large cruise ship, "Ada Huacheng", officially generated power, providing power for the relevant equipment of the entire ship, which also marks the construction of this cruise ship entering the stage of equipment debugging and system function verification. The main generator is the core equipment of the cruise ship, just like the "heart" of the cruise ship, it is the main power supply for the ship's power distribution system and propulsion system. The formal power generation means that more than 300 related equipment has reached www.xmh100.completion status. As of now, the overall progress of the second large domestic cruise ship "Ida Huacheng" project has exceeded 80%. In the next stage, we will focus on internal engineering and equipment system debugging to ensure smooth departure from the dock in March 2026 and www.xmh100.completion and delivery before the end of the year.

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