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RBA resolution in August is coming, expecting a 25 basis point rate cut

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: The RBA's August resolution is www.xmh100.coming, and it is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

XM Exchange www.xmh100.comment: The RBA August resolution is www.xmh100.coming, and a 25 basis point rate cut is expected.

Today, at 12:30, the RBA will announce the results of the August interest rate resolution. The mainstream expects it to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the benchmark interest rate may drop from 3.85% to 3.6%; at 13:30 today, RBA Chairman Brock will hold a monetary policy press conference to focus on his future development prospects of Australia's macroeconomics. If he expresses pessimism, it may impact the Australian dollar exchange rate.

From the economic data perspective, Australia's GDP annual growth rate in the first quarter was 1.3%, the same as the previous value and is in a weak recovery state. The unemployment rate in June was 4.3%, higher than the previous value of 4.1%. The labor market showed signs of worsening, but the absolute value was still below the 5% warning line. The annual rate of core CPI in the second quarter was 2.7%, lower than the previous value of 2.9%, and fell for 10 consecutive periods, and www.xmh100.commodity demand was slightly weak. Overall, Australia's macroeconomic recovery is weak, the unemployment rate is rising, and www.xmh100.commodity demand is declining, and loose monetary policies are needed to boost the economy. The probability of the RBA continuing its interest rate cut policy is high.

The minutes of the RBA meeting in July mentioned: "Inflation will further decline by the end of the year, so further interest rates need to be lowered." This statement increases the probability of continuing interest rate cuts in August. In early July, RBA Chairman Brock said the possibility of serious trade problems was reduced. The trade issue mentioned here refers to the United States’ tariff policy on Australia. Judging from the results, the US tariff rate on Australia is 10%, which is the lowest level of the US tariff rate on other countries. Although tariff policies are unfavorable to Australia's macroeconomic development, the impact of the 10% tax rate is far lower than previous market expectations. So, although the RBAThe rate cut will continue, but the intensity will not be too strong (it will not reach 50 basis points).

▲XM chart

From the trend structure perspective, AUDUSD is in a medium-term bullish trend, but the upward momentum has weakened. From the end of April to the end of July, AUDUSD is in a narrow range of oscillations (in the channel in the figure), and the center of gravity is rising at a small angle. Starting from July 24, the daily volatility began to increase, and on July 30, it effectively fell below the copper wire and fell down, and the bullish trend structure may be damaged. The highest point of the latest rebound band is 0.6540 points, around 0.618 minutes of the previous downward band, and may usher in strong technical resistance. 0.6540 is also in the extension part of the lower track of the channel, which will also suppress the current upward trend. The short-term trend is bearish, but after the market can break through the resistance of 0.618 and the lower track of the channel, the bull trend will continue.

XM risk warning, disclaimer, special statement: The market is risky, so be cautious when investing. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not regard this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' views may change and updates will not be notified separately.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: The Australian Federal Reserve's August resolution is www.xmh100.coming, and the expected rate cut is 25 basis points". It is carefully www.xmh100.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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RBA resolution in August is coming, expecting a 25 basis point rate cut

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Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Brokerfor a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

market analysis

RBA resolution in August is coming, expecting a 25 basis point rate cut

Related News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason