Trusted by over 15 Million Traders
The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason
CATEGORIES
News
- 【XM Decision Analysis】--GBP/USD Forex Signal: Sterling at Risk Ahead of BoE Deci
- 【XM Decision Analysis】--GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Interest Rate Cut and More Weak
- 【XM Market Analysis】--EUR/USD Monthly Forecast: December 2024
- 【XM Group】--USD/ZAR Forex Signal: Gives Up Gains
- 【XM Market Analysis】--USD/JPY Analysis: Should You Buy Now?
market analysis
Bearish pressure on the dollar index intensifies, paying attention to Fed officials' speeches
Wonderful introduction:
Optimism is the line of egrets that are straight up to the blue sky, optimism is the thousands of white sails beside the sunken boat, optimism is the lush grass that blows with the wind on the head of the parrot island, optimism is the falling red spots that turn into spring mud to protect the flowers.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Market Review]: The bearish pressure on the US dollar index is intensifying, pay attention to the speeches of Federal Reserve officials." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On the Asian session on Wednesday, the US dollar index hovered around 98.07, and the US dollar fell across the board on Tuesday. Previous data showed that US consumer prices rose moderately in July, retaining the possibility of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut next month. The money market has been on the sidelines of currency holding on as markets increasingly expect a moderate reading of U.S. price pressure may consolidate bets on the Fed's interest rate cut next month, which has increased after last week's weak jobs data were released.
Analysis of major currencies
United States dollar: After the release of data on July US consumer price index in the United States, market expectations for the Fed's next policy meeting have increased, and the US dollar weakened accordingly. The Fed had room for interest rate cuts in September, given inflation was under control and signs of weak labor markets. The narrowing of yield spread and the resilience of major foreign currencies suggest that if Powell sends signals that he is preparing for further sharp rate cuts at Jackson Hall annual meeting, the U.S. dollar index may face continued selling pressure and downward towards key support levels. From a technical perspective, after the US dollar index fell below the 50-day moving average of 98.200, it was in a weak position, and this indicator has become a new resistance level. Today's sell-off makes it possible for the market to break through the Fibonacci support level of 97.859, which could be the trigger point for downside acceleration, with the next major target being the 97.109 low set on July 24.
1. US Treasury Secretary: Trump widely looks for candidates for the Fed, including former Chairman Yellen
On Tuesday local time, US Treasury Secretary Becent said in an interview with Fox Business Channel that he is optimistic that the Senate will confirm that the current Chairman of the Economic Advisory www.xmh100.committee Stephen Milan will take on the temporary vacancy position of the Federal Reserve before the Fed's September interest rate meeting. Becente revealed that US President Trump is looking for candidates widely to fill the permanent vacancies of the Federal Reserve Board that will appear in January next year and is very open-minded. He revealed that the president has even considered nominating former Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen. “It’s not an ideological question, it’s about the economy — what’s most beneficial to the American people and what’s most beneficial to economic development,” Besent stressed.
2. Fed Barkin: Consumers' financial resources are tightening to weaken the effect of tariff inflation
According to the Wall Street Journal, Fed Barkin said there are many signs that low- and middle-income consumers are more struggling than they were a few years ago, which may curb their consumption spending and thus reduce the impact of tariffs on inflation. "The theory that (tariff) costs must be passed on to lead to a surge in inflation must be tested by the consumer's reaction," he said. "I think consumers will accept the price increase of certain urgently needed goods, but they will inevitably resist price increases in other areas by downgrading consumption or delaying purchases." Speaking of the inflation prospects, Barkin pointed out: "We will see a certain amount of inflation, but the range will be milder than expected, because it is not 2022 - when consumers held plenty of cash and had a strong desire to consume. The current situation in 2025 In fact, consumers feel financially tight, so they have to make careful calculations. ”
3. Foreign media revealed: Trump’s director of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics once suggested suspending the release of monthly employment reports
According to Fox Business Channel, E.J. Antoni, an economist who was nominated by US President Trump as director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, suggested suspending the agency’s highly-watched monthly employment report, saying that its basic methods, economic models and statistical assumptions have fundamental flaws. Ahead of Trump’s nomination announcement Monday, Anthony criticized the data behind the monthly employment report for being unreliable and often exaggerated, warning that it misleads key economic decision makers from Washington to Wall Street. "When businesses don't know how much jobs are added or reduced in our economy, exactly how should they plan, or how the Fed should implement monetary policy? This is a serious problem that needs to be addressed immediately. Until the issue is corrected, the Bureau of Labor Statistics should suspend the release of monthly employment reports, but should continue to release more accurate, but less timely quarterly data," he said. "Major decision makers from Wall Street to Washington, D.C. rely on these data, and lack of confidence in these data can have a profound impact."
4. Analysts: Tariffs are less impacted on the CPI. The Fed is basically locked in the September rate cut.
Janney Montgomeryscott chief fixed income strategist Guylebas said that the July CPI roughly met expectations and did not transmit too much tariff impact to consumers prices, which is certainly enough to lock in the possibility of a rate cut in September. There is still some way to go before the meeting next month, but at least in terms of inflation data, the situation is not worrying at the moment. As an independent and impartial economist, these data can be interpreted from two aspects: one is that since the tariff effect has not yet fully appeared, inflation may rise in the future; the other is that www.xmh100.companies are digesting the impact of tariffs, so it will not be transmitted to consumer inflation. But in either case, it is enough to make the Fed's reasonable interest rate cuts in September, provided that next month's data will not accelerate significantly.
Institutional View
1. CICC: Core inflation rebound may intensify internal parts of the Federal ReserveQi
CICC Research Report pointed out that the core CPI in the United States rose 0.3% month-on-month in July, rebounding from 2.9% to 3.1% year-on-year, higher than market expectations; the overall CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month and maintained at 2.7% year-on-year, slightly lower than expectations. From the perspective of sub-items, inflation showed a moderate www.xmh100.commodity in July and the characteristics of a rebound in services: tariff costs are still transmitting to the retail end, but some prices have also fallen. Some previously falling services prices have turned upward, increasing inflation stickiness. We maintain our previous judgment that US inflation will enter a structural upward phase. For the Fed, the core CPI has not converged towards the 2% target, but has returned to above 3%, becoming increasingly far away from the target. This could increase partial disagreement within the Fed, making it difficult for it to form a consensus on policy resolutions. The variables in the monetary policy path will be greatly increased and market volatility will intensify.
2. Institutions: UK employment data is unlikely to lead to a faster rate cut in the Bank of England
UK labor market data released on Tuesday showed that employment fell slightly in July, down 8,000. Bruna Skarica, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, said in a note that the data are unlikely to inspire confidence in the Bank of England's rapid rate cut. "The idleness of the British labor market continues to increase, but its speed will not shift the Bank of England's attention from food and overall inflation." LSEGData shows that the market expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates in December at 68%.
3. Netherlands International: If the US-Russia summit fails to make progress, the euro may fall
Dutch International analyst Francesco Pesole said in a report that if Friday's US-Russia summit fails to make any progress in resolving the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the euro may fall. He said headlines about the upcoming meeting between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin continue to have a slight impact on the euro. Pesole pointed out that if the summit does not achieve anything, the euro will face the risk of falling below 1.1500.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: The bearish pressure on the US dollar index is intensifying, pay attention to the speeches of Federal Reserve officials". It was carefully www.xmh100.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
Due to the author's limited ability and time constraints, some content in the article still needs to be discussed and studied in depth. Therefore, in the future, the author will conduct extended research and discussion on the following issues:
Disclaimers: XM Group only provides execution services and access permissions for online trading platforms, and allows individuals to view and/or use the website or the content provided on the website, but has no intention of making any changes or extensions, nor will it change or extend its services and access permissions. All access and usage permissions will be subject to the following terms and conditions: (i) Terms and conditions; (ii) Risk warning; And (iii) a complete disclaimer. Please note that all information provided on the website is for general informational purposes only. In addition, the content of all XM online trading platforms does not constitute, and cannot be used for any unauthorized financial market trading invitations and/or invitations. Financial market transactions pose significant risks to your investment capital.
All materials published on online trading platforms are only intended for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered for financial, investment tax, or trading related consulting and advice, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related trading offers or invitations.
All content provided by XM and third-party suppliers on this website, including opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, other information, and third-party website links, remains unchanged and is provided as general market commentary rather than investment advice. All materials published on online trading platforms are only for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered as applicable to financial, investment tax, or trading related advice and recommendations, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related financial offers or invitations. Please ensure that you have read and fully understood the information on XM's non independent investment research tips and risk warnings. For more details, please click here