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The replacement of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics has caused controversy. Should the US economic data be brought with it, "political filter"?
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange]: The head of the Labor Statistics Bureau has caused controversy, and the US economic data should be brought with it, "political filter"?". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Conservative economist Erwin John "E.J." Antoni once joked on social media that the "L" in BLS, the English abbreviation of Labor Statistics, is not pronounced. Now, behind this joke is the major changes and controversy that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics may face. On August 11, local time, US President Trump announced the nomination of Anthony as director of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which instantly caused an uproar in the public opinion field and the economic field.
The questioned appointment
Trump's nomination for Anthony this time is largely due to his dissatisfaction with the recent data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Previously, the U.S. Department of Labor released employment data for July showed that the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% month-on-month. Only 73,000 new jobs in the non-agricultural sector that month, far lower than the market expectations of 110,000, and the number of new jobs in the non-agricultural sector in May and June was significantly lowered www.xmh100.compared with previous data.
Trump quickly fired then-deputy director Erica McKentavor without factual basis, accusing him of "manipulating employment data for political purposes." Anthony, who had been long-time criticizing the Bureau of Labor Statistics data and statistical methods, then tried to "correct" the data problem.
Anthony's resume and background, however, has deeply worried many economists and observers about the appointment. According to the graduation manual of Northern Illinois University, Anthony received his Master of Economics and PhD in 2018 and 2020, respectively, and from St.Jialu Bao Rongmao Theological Seminary received a Bachelor of Arts degree. According to its LinkedIn information, he studied at Lansdale Catholic High School from 2002 to 2006.
In 2021, he began working as an economist at the Texas Public Policy Foundation, a conservative think tank that has sued the federal government and demanded the overturning of climate change regulations. The following year, he joined the Conservative Heritage Foundation as a researcher, studying regional economics, and is now the foundation’s chief economist and an advisor to the Unleashing Prosperity www.xmh100.committee.
Most of the directors of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics have rich research experience, and many of them have been promoted from within institutions. But Anthony did not conform to this convention.
By searching for the National Bureau of Economic Research working papers and Google Scholar, it was found that Anthony seems to have never published any formal academic research since his publication of his doctoral thesis.
In contrast, many of his www.xmh100.comments on the Heritage Foundation website praise Trump’s policy and economic achievements, while often posting on X and appearing on conservative podcasts, such as the “Strange Room” of former Trump adviser Stephen Bannon, where he strongly criticized the U.S. economy under Biden and praised the Trump-era economy. This series of performances made it generally believed that he had a clear partisan tendency.
The Dilemma of Data Collection of Bureau of Labor Statistics
In recent years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has faced many difficulties in data collection. With social development and economic structure changes, the survey response rate continues to decline.
In the Enterprise Survey (CES), the current response rate is only 42%, far lower than the 60% before the epidemic. At the same time, the difficulty of collecting economic data is also increasing. For example, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said earlier this year that due to the withdrawal of branches in many places and the severe shortage of staff, it has to reduce the collection of samples related to the Consumer Price Index.
And from August, approximately 350 data in the Industrial Producer Ex-Factory Price Index (PPI) will also be stopped. The index is a key indicator for measuring inflation from the wholesale price level, which undoubtedly reflects the Bureau of Labor Statistics' current situation of data collection.
In such a data collection dilemma, Trump's appointment of partisan Anthony as director may make the situation worse. Not only did Anthony not have practical experience in data collection and statistics, he also often publicly questioned the Bureau of Labor Statistics' existing statistical algorithms.
He once satirized the agency's data as "nonsense" and called on the "Ministry of Government Efficiency" to "bring a chainsaw to lay off employees." This may lead to a significant adjustment of the data collection method after he or she takes office. If this adjustment is not based on professional statistical knowledge and in-depth understanding of data collection difficulties, it is very likely to destroy the existing data collection system and further damage the accuracy and www.xmh100.completeness of the data.
Institutional independence faces severe challenges
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, as a 141-year history, has been divided into about 20An institution www.xmh100.composed of 00 economists, statisticians and other officials has always adhered to an independent and non-partisan stance, which is crucial to the credibility of U.S. economic data. Business, household and local decision makers all rely on the trusted data they provide to make decisions.
However, Trump's nomination of Anthony, who is highly politically inclined, undoubtedly puts the independence of the Bureau of Labor Statistics in unprecedented challenges.
Once Anthony's appointment is approved by the Senate, he will be responsible for managing this important body. Judging from his past remarks and stance, it is difficult to guarantee that he will not interpret the data or issue a statement in a way that is beneficial to Trump.
In Biden's final year in office, Anthony believed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report underestimated the actual inflation level at that time. In July 2024, he accused the monthly rent data in the CPI report of "seriously lagging", but in fact, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that rents rose by 5.2% year-on-year by June 2024, while data from private institutions Zillow showed that the increase in the same period was only 3.2%, indicating that his judgment may not be based on objective facts.
If he brings this partisan subjective judgment into the work of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the future will likely be questioned by the market and the public, which will affect the credibility of the entire US economic data.
Far-reaching impact on the normal functions of the U.S. government departments
From the overall operation of the U.S. government departments, the data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is an important basis for many policy formulation. Whether it is the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the government's fiscal policy and employment promotion policies, they are highly dependent on data provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
If the Bureau of Labor Statistics causes data quality to decline or be questioned due to the party tendency of the director, it will first interfere with policy judgment.
When the Federal Reserve decides whether to cut or raise interest rates, employment data and inflation data are important reference indicators. If the Bureau of Labor Statistics data is considered unreliable, the Federal Reserve may postpone interest rate cuts, which is extremely unfavorable for economic recovery and stability.
Secondly, it will hit market confidence. Business leaders need to rely on reliable and impartial economic data when making investment decisions and planning production capacity.
Once the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ data credibility is damaged, www.xmh100.companies may have doubts about the market prospects, thereby reducing investment, affecting employment and overall economic development. Finally, the behavior of such political factors involved in data statistics may also cause long-term and far-reaching harm to the systems that support the operation of the US economy, destroying the long-established institutional system of economic statistics and releases that the US has established.
At present, the nomination for Anthony's appointment still needs to be approved by the U.S. Senate. Although the Republicans occupy the majority in the house, the controversy caused by this appointment has highlighted the crisis facing the U.S. economic data statistics field. In the future, if Anthony succeeds in taking office, can the Bureau of Labor Statistics continue to maintain its independence and provide objective and accurate data, and the United StatesWhether government departments can normally perform their economic regulation and other functions based on reliable data is full of uncertainty, and it deserves continuous attention from all walks of life.
This event may weaken the stability of the US dollar index in the long run. Anthony's partisan tendency may reduce the credibility of the Bureau of Labor Statistics data, interfere with Federal Reserve policies, crack down on market confidence in US dollar assets, and affect the status of US dollar reserve currency.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange]: The head of the Labor Statistics Bureau has caused controversy, and the US economic data should be brought with it, "political filter"?" is carefully www.xmh100.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!
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