The ECB expects a rate cut in September to cool down, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on August 14

Global Market Review

1. European and American market trends

The three major U.S. stock index futures rose, Dow futures rose 0.06%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.04%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.05%. The German DAX index rose 0.68%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.07%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.62%, and the European Stoke 50 index rose 0.64%.

2. Market news interpretation

Wind direction suddenly changed: ECB's expectation of a rate cut in September cooled down

⑴ Reuters' latest survey showed that as many as 46 of the 72 economists predicted that the ECB would maintain a deposit rate of 2.00% unchanged at its September meeting, which is www.xmh100.completely contrary to the previous view that most people predicted a rate cut next month. ⑵ Although concerns about EU www.xmh100.commodity tariffs remain, the eurozone's economic outlook is stable thanks to the trade agreement with the United States and financial support from countries such as Germany. GDP is expected to grow by 1.1% and 1.2% in 2025 and 2026 respectively. ⑶ More than 47% of respondents are expected to cut interest rates before the end of the year. Last month, nearly 60% of economists still predicted another rate cut. ⑷ The ECB's interest rate is currently at the midpoint of the neutral range of 1.75% to 2.25%, and inflation has reached the 2% target, which provides a sufficient reason for the central bank to keep interest rates unchanged. ⑸ Nomura's chief European economist pointed out that both hawkish and dovish officials believe that there is no need to take action at the moment, which is in sharp contrast to the continued pressure on the United States to cut interest rates.

Wu Ying's leadershipMeeting before the "Tep Conference": Coordination Position Focuses on strategic financing of drones

On August 14, local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky said that he held a good and fruitful meeting with British Prime Minister Stamer, and the two sides continued to coordinate their positions. Zelensky said that the two sides exchanged views on the upcoming meeting between the United States and Russia in Alaska and its possible prospects, and discussed in more detail the issue of providing security for Ukraine. Zelensky stressed that an effective security cooperation mechanism must be reached within the framework of the "Coalition of Will". Zelensky said the two sides also discussed plans to continue supporting Ukrainian military and defense production. Zelensky said that no matter how the situation develops, Ukraine will remain strong. Zelensky particularly emphasized that investment in Ukrainian drone production is one of the important issues. Ukraine has great potential in expanding production scale, but it urgently needs financing support. Zelensky said that drones play a decisive role on the front line, and Ukraine has outstanding production capabilities, so investment in this field will have a substantial impact on the strategic level. Ukraine is working with the United Kingdom and all partners in this area.

Sony www.xmh100.completely stopped its Russian market business

According to Ukrainian media reports, Sony, a large Japanese www.xmh100.comprehensive multinational www.xmh100.company, officially stopped its business in Russia on August 11 and closed its local offices nearly 18 years after entering the Russian market. Documents for closing Russian business were submitted to the Russian Federation's tax authorities as early as October 10, 2024. Sony tried to www.xmh100.completely stop operations in 2023, but was rejected at the time. After the full outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022, Sony decided to stop its operations in Russia. Shipping of video game consoles stopped almost immediately, and the PlayStation store was also closed. In addition, Sony has stopped releasing movies in Russia and has shut down Sony Music. Sony has been selling its remaining shares in recent years. It is worth noting that Sony has been offering a free PlayStationPlus subscription service to Ukrainians since the start of the full conflict until the end of last year.

The EU said it would make amendments to finalize the text after receiving the response from the United States on the joint statement of the trade agreement

European www.xmh100.commission spokesman Olof Gill said at a regular press conference that the European www.xmh100.commission has received a response from the United States and the two sides are seeking to finalize a joint statement on the trade agreement. The European www.xmh100.commission will now study the US response and propose revisions to finalize the text, striving to "complete the final fine-tuning", hoping to achieve the final text soon. Gill said the EU is not worried that U.S. President Donald Trump has not signed an executive order to lower EU car import tariffs.

The EU hopes to pass the 19th round of sanctions plan against Russia next month

The EU said it hopes to pass the 19th round of sanctions plan against Russia next month and continue to put pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin on the issue of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. EU www.xmh100.commissionMembers' spokesman Arianna Podesta detailed the schedule of the next round of measures against Russia at a daily press conference in Brussels on Thursday, but did not disclose what specific content the plan might include. The EU approved a series of measures in July.

European industrial output took a sharp turn for the worse, and the tariff shock surfaced

⑴European industrial output fell sharply by 1.3% month-on-month in June, far exceeding the 0.9% decline expected by economists, which reversed the 1.1% growth in May, indicating that the previous stockpiling effect caused by tariff rhetoric has www.xmh100.completely subsided. ⑵ Data shows that since Trump’s tariff remarks were released in April, industrial output has gradually declined. Production of all www.xmh100.commodity categories (from durable goods to consumer goods) has seen a month-on-month decline. ⑶The regional performance differences were significant, with Ireland's output plummeting 11%, while Germany also fell 2.3%. In contrast, France and Spain grew against the trend, recording 3.8% and 1.1% respectively. ⑷ The head of global macro research at Dutch International Group said that this data reflects that the industrial resilience in the euro zone is fading and there is a clear internal differentiation. ⑸ Although GDP growth rate remained unchanged at 0.1% in the second quarter, the weak industrial output indicates that the eurozone manufacturing industry is facing the double pressure brought by tariffs and a strong euro.

Feder officials poured cold water: 50 basis points rate cuts may become a sham

⑴ Although US Treasury Secretary Becente's recent remarks have triggered market speculation that the Fed cuts interest rates by 50 basis points in September, Fed official Daly refuted this, saying that the move is not "reasonable". ⑵Daly stressed that she prefers to gradually, rather than radically relax monetary policy. These remarks are in sharp contrast to the market's generally expected rate cuts. ⑶ Despite this, the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut in September are still very high, but the rate cut is mostly priced at 25 basis points, rather than 50 basis points. ⑷Daly's statement is a cooling of expectations of aggressive rate cuts, but as the market still generally expects interest rate cuts, the downward pressure on the US dollar may continue. ⑸ Investors are closely watching whether the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond will fall below the key technical level of 4.2%. Once it falls below, it will bring greater downside risks to the US dollar.

Inflation mystery under the interest rate cut fanatic

⑴ The US market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut have reached a climax, and some traders even bet on a 50 basis point cut next month. Behind this is the strong call for a rate cut by US Treasury Secretary Becent and his response to recent weak employment data. ⑵ Wall Street stock markets fell after hitting a new high, but the two-year U.S. Treasury yields continued to fall. The market is waiting for July PPI data to find clues to inflation trends. ⑶ Although Fed officials are still cautious about sharp rate cuts, Wall Street banks have begun to predict three rate cuts this year, based on weak employment data and limited transmission of tariffs to inflation. ⑷In addition, international oil prices fell to two-month lows, cooling down global inflation pressure and providing macroeconomic support for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. ⑸ The yen rose to a three-week high against the US dollar, and the pound against the euroThe six-week high highlights the market's capital flow under different macroeconomic policy expectations.

Expectations of Fed interest rate cuts have heated up, and the euro zone bond market has moved on.

⑴ As US Treasury Secretary Becent called on the Fed to cut interest rates sharply, market expectations for the Fed's actions next month have heated up sharply, and euro zone bond yields have generally fallen. ⑵ German two-year government bond yield fell 1 basis point to 1.926%, and the 10-year government bond yield also fell 2 basis points to 2.66%, continuing the previous day's decline. ⑶Becente said in an interview that the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points next month is high. Market pricing has almost www.xmh100.completely digested the rate cut in September, and there is even a 5% chance of betting on a significant rate cut. ⑷ Italy's 10-year government bond yield fell 2.5 basis points to 3.46%, and the interest rate spread with Germany's 10-year government bond narrowed to 78.2 basis points, the narrowest since 2011. ⑸ Although the market focus is on the United States, analysts pointed out that France's fiscal situation has also caused concerns, with the interest rate spread between its government bonds narrowing to about 14 basis points, reflecting investors' concerns about the sustainability of France's debt.

The UK economy exceeded expectations, and the bet for interest rate cuts faced challenges

⑴ UK GDP grew by 0.3% in the second quarter, exceeding the general expectations of economists, indicating that the UK economy showed stronger resilience than expected when responding to multiple challenges such as external tariffs and domestic tax increases. ⑵In view of this, Berenberg analysts believe that the Bank of England will likely maintain the interest rate of 4.0% for the rest of 2025, which is in sharp contrast to the previous market's expectations of interest rate cuts. ⑶ However, the market still has differences on this. Refinitiv data shows that there is still a 68% chance that the Bank of England will cut interest rates in December. ⑷ The game between optimism of macro data and expectation of interest rate cuts has made the Bank of England's future policy direction full of uncertainty. Traders need to be wary of the possible market fluctuations caused by the divergence between data and expectations.

European industry was cold, and the economic outlook was cast a shadow

⑴European industrial output fell by 1.3% month-on-month in June, a decrease of 1.0% exceeded market expectations. At the same time, the May data was revised down to 1.1%, indicating that the overall trend in the industrial sector was weaker than expected. ⑵ The decline in industrial output was mainly dragged down by the 2.3% decline in Germany and the 4.7% decline in non-durable consumer goods production. Although GDP grew by 0.1% month-on-month in the second quarter, weak industrial data challenges the resilience of the eurozone economy. ⑶ Although employment growth of 0.1% is in line with expectations, it slowed down from 0.2% in the previous quarter. Data such as previously optimistic PCP Index are now being challenged by new data such as industrial orders. ⑷ The market still hopes that the certainty of the near-term trade agreement and Germany's fiscal stimulus plan can support the economy, predicting that the eurozone economy will expand at a moderate rate of about 1% per year in the next few years. ⑸ Although short-term inflation may fall below the 2% target, due to rising medium-term price pressure, the market generally believes that the ECB may have ended the interest rate cut cycle.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the market

Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD fell and is now at 1.1683, a drop of 0.20%. Before the New York Stock Market, the price of (EUR/USD) began to rebound on the last trading day after it successfully gained positive momentum that helped it maintain its dominance on a short-term basis, especially as it trades along the supportive slash along the track, it successfully got rid of the apparent overbought state on the (RSI) and leaned on the support level of 1.1670, strengthening this positive scenario due to its trading above the EMA50.

GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD rose, now at 1.3576, an increase of 0.01%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, (GBPUSD) price rose on the last trading day, attacking the key resistance level at 1.3590, supported by its continuous trading above the EMA50 and dominated by a short-term bull correction wave, as well as its support line along the bull track, on the other hand, we noticed that the (RSI) indicator reached overbought levels with negative overlap signals that could temporarily reduce the upcoming earnings.

Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold fell, now at 3354.84, a drop of 0.03%. Before the New York Stock Market, the (gold) price fluctuated in its last intraday trading, and negative pressure from its trading below the EMA50 continued to exist, trying to get the positive momentum needed to help it out of negative pressure, opening the way to achieve more gains without negative obstacles by unloading its apparent overbought conditions on (RSI), while its trading is accompanied by a small bullish trend line on a short-term basis.

Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now at 38.232, a drop of 0.64%. Before New York, the (silver) price fell on the last trading day, looking for upward lows based on this may help it gain the positive momentum it needs to recover, and in addition, it attempts to get rid of the (RSI) overbought situation, especially with the emergence of negative signals, which emerges in the ongoing dynamic support represented by trade above the EMA50, which is accompanied by a small bullish trend line, which increases the stability of the positive scenario on the short-term basis.

Crude Oil Market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose and is now at 62.960, up 0.51%. Before the New York market, the price of (crude oil) fell in the last session, preparing to break through the current support level of $62.00, and traded along a slightly bearish trend line in the short term. The negative pressure continues to fall below EMA50. In addition (RSI) reaches an overbought level, which indicates that a negative divergence is beginning to form.

4. Institutional View

Morgan Stanley expects that 1 billion humanoid robots may be put into operation in 2050, and China is expected to be the largest country in using adult robots.

A report this year pointed out that the global humanoid robot market size is expected to reach US$5 trillion by 2050. This forecast includes relevant supply chains in the industry, as well as maintenance, maintenance and support services. More than 1 billion humanoid robots may be put into use worldwide. From the perspective of usage scenarios, about 90% of humanoid robots will mainly serve the industrial and www.xmh100.commercial fields, and are used to perform repetitive, simple and structured work. Among them, China is expected to become the country with the largest number of humanoid robots in the world, with more than 300 million units, and the United States will be about 77.7 million units.

Institution: Global client CPU shipments in Q2 2025 are the same 13% increase

The latest data from the market research firm JonPeddieResearch shows that the global client CPU market has achieved growth for two consecutive quarters. In the second quarter of 2025, client CPU shipments increased by 7.9% month-on-month and 13% year-on-year; during the same period, server CPU shipments increased by 22% year-on-year, slightly up 0.6% month-on-month

The above content is about "【XM Foreign Exchange]: The ECB expects a rate cut in September to cool down. The entire content of the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on August 14 was carefully www.xmh100.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for your support!

Due to the author's limited ability and time tightness, some of the content in the article still needs to be discussed and studied in depth. Therefore, in the future, the author will conduct extended research and discussion on the following issues: