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The US dollar index fluctuates, paying attention to "Tep Summit" and "terror data"

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The US dollar index fluctuates, pay attention to the "Tep Summit" and "Terror Data". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On the Asian session on Friday, the US dollar index fluctuated slightly, and the US dollar rose across the board on Thursday. Data shows that as services and www.xmh100.commodity prices surged, U.S. producer prices rose more than expected in July, suggesting that inflation will generally rise in the next few months. This trading day will be released on the monthly rate of industrial output in the United States in July, the initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in August, the New York Fed Manufacturing Index in August and the monthly rate of retail sales in the United States in July (commonly known as "terrorist data"), and investors also need to pay attention to it.

Analysis of major currencies

U.S. dollar: Thursday's data on July of the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) far exceeded expectations, posing a challenge to the recent market's dovish expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. The U.S. dollar index thus recovered its lost ground and ended its two-day consecutive decline. Data shows that driven by rising costs of services and www.xmh100.commodities, wholesale prices in the United States rose by 0.9% month-on-month, far higher than the general expectation of 0.2%. Judging from the daily chart of the US dollar index (DXY), the index currently fluctuates slightly above the 50-day moving average (98.1 mark), and this level has become a key fulcrum for short-term price trends. Earlier this week, the U.S. dollar index fell below this moving average, but regained its foothold after the release of PPI data. Traders are closely watching whether the U.S. dollar index can clearly close above the moving average - if this breakthrough is achieved, it may pave the way for the index to open up a wider bullish trend.

Euro: On Thursday (August 14), the euro/dollar exchange rate rebounded after the opening, rebounding from the intraday low of 1.1667, but still failed to break through the 1.1700 mark and continued to be under pressure. EurozoneThe release of Jinan data failed to significantly boost market confidence, and the exchange rate pulled back from a two-week high of 1.1730 earlier.

GBP: The GBP/USD fell back on Thursday due to the rise in U.S. inflation indicators, resulting in a general strengthening of the US dollar (USD), interrupting the GBP/USD's two-day winning streak. The GBP/USD recorded its biggest single-day decline in two weeks, pushing the pair back to 1.3500, failing to successfully break through the technical resistance level of 1.3600. U.S. retail sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index will be the main data drivers on Friday.

Summary of news from the foreign exchange market

1. Becent denies pushing for interest rate cuts, indicating that the model shows that 150 basis points need to be lowered to reach neutral interest rates

U.S. Treasury Secretary Becent said that he is not calling on the Fed to carry out a series of interest rate cuts, but only pointed out that the model shows that the "neutral" interest rate is about 1.5 percentage points lower than the current level. “I didn’t tell the Fed what it should do,” Becent said in an interview Thursday, referring to his www.xmh100.comment the day before that the Fed “can go into a series of rate cuts from now on.” Becent said on Thursday, "What I said is that to reach neutral interest rates, a rate cut will be required by about 150 basis points."

2. Countdown to the "Tep Conference" Trump revealed more details of the meeting

On the 14th local time, US President Trump made his latest statement on more details of the meeting with Russian President Putin. Trump said in an interview with Fox News that day that day that he believed Russian President Putin would reach an agreement. He also said that the estimated risk of a failure in the meeting with Putin is "25%. Trump also said that the meeting with Putin on the 15th will lay the foundation for an agreement to reach a second meeting, and sanctions will be imposed if the problem is not resolved. He said that regarding the border and land issues will be a process of mutual concession. Trump did not make any more explanations on "reach of an agreement", "second meeting" and "sanctions". Trump said he did not know whether the meeting could reach a consensus on an immediate ceasefire. If it goes well, he will call Ukrainian President Zelensky and European leaders. Trump said a post-conference press conference will be held anyway, but he is not sure whether it will be held in a joint manner.

3. The United States announced: temporary exemption of some sanctions against Russia

The US Treasury Department announced that the United States will temporarily exempt some sanctions against Russia and allow relevant transactions required for the preparations for the Russian-US summit held in Alaska to promote the preparations for the summit. US President Trump will meet with Russian President Putin in Anchorage, Alaska on August 15 to focus on discussionsOn promoting the conclusion of a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine. If progress goes well, more follow-up meetings with Ukrainian President Zelensky may be arranged after this summit. According to the British Daily Telegraph, Trump plans to propose a package of economic incentive plans, including allowing Russia to obtain some of Alaska's natural resources, relaxing some sanctions on the Russian aviation industry, and allowing Russia to sell rare earth mined on Ukrainian territory currently controlled by the Russian army, so as to facilitate a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine.

4. US Treasury Secretary Bescent: Please pay attention to drug tariffs

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bescent said that the Trump administration is expected to release "a large number of announcements about the pharmaceutical industry." "Stay tuned for the next few weeks," Besent said. "I think you will see that the United States will usher in a boom in pharmaceutical factory construction."

5. The Japanese economy grew beyond expectations under tariff pressure

Despite facing the impact of the United States imposing tariffs, Japan's economy continued to expand at an expected rate last quarter, bringing rare good news to Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who is in a political crisis. Data released by the Cabinet Office on Friday showed that GDP in the second quarter increased by 1% month-on-month, far exceeding economists' expectations of 0.4%. The first quarter data increased by 0.6% from the initial contraction. This is the first economic data that reflects the effectiveness of Trump's "peer-to-peer tariffs" policy. Since April, Japan faced a 10% basic tariff and a 25% special automobile tariff. In early June, the United States' import tax rate on Japan's steel doubled from 25% to 50%. Under the agreement reached at the end of July, the auto tariffs will be lowered to 15% that are on par with the base tax rate. Resilience in economic growth may gain breathing space for Shigeru Ishiba and allow the Bank of Japan to maintain a gradual path to hike interest rates.

Institutional View

1. www.xmh100.comBC: Potential Federal Reserve Chairman David Zervos supports a sharp rate cut

According to www.xmh100.comBC, potential Federal Reserve Chairman Jefferies chief market strategist David Zervos said Fed officials should not be frightened by the potential inflationary pressure shown by the producer price index in July, which is higher than expected. Instead, he argued that the Fed is now actively taking loose measures to prevent a labor market slowdown, which actually helps create more than one million jobs. Zervos has been advocating a 0.5 percentage point cut in the past three Fed meetings, which he reiterated in an interview. "I definitely still hold the same point. I think there is a reasonable and very convincing storyline that monetary policy is restrictive. Overall, I don't see any reason to change this view."

2. Morgan Stanley's economic slowdown may be a reason for a rate cut in November

Bruna Skarica, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, said in a report that the UK's second-quarter GDP data showed slow growth momentum, which could lead to the Bank of England's rate cut in November. Economic growth in the second quarter was 0.3%, better than adjustmentThe general forecast of economists is 0.1%. Still, potential details suggest that economic growth is slowing, Skarica said. She said private demand growth looks slow. "Entertainment rates are too high, which is not conducive to sustained and broad growth." LSEG data shows that the UK currency market currently believes that the Bank of England's interest rate cut in November is only 33%.

3. Institutions: The Bank of England may keep interest rates unchanged after GDP data is released

Andrew Wishart, an analyst at Berenberg, said in a report that the Bank of England may maintain interest rates at 4.0% for the remainder of 2025 after releasing better-than-expected UK GDP data on Thursday. The UK economy grew by 0.3% in the second quarter, higher than the 0.1% generally forecast by economists in the survey. "It now seems that the UK economy has withstood the impact of U.S. tariffs and domestic tax increases quite well in the second quarter." LSEG data shows that the money market expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates in December at 68%.

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market analysis

The US dollar index fluctuates, paying attention to "Tep Summit" and "terror data"

Analysis of major currencies

1. Becent denies pushing for interest rate cuts, indicating that the model shows that 150 basis points need to be lowered to reach neutral interest rates

2. Countdown to the "Tep Conference" Trump revealed more details of the meeting

3. The United States announced: temporary exemption of some sanctions against Russia

4. US Treasury Secretary Bescent: Please pay attention to drug tariffs

5. The Japanese economy grew beyond expectations under tariff pressure

Institutional View

1. www.xmh100.comBC: Potential Federal Reserve Chairman David Zervos supports a sharp rate cut

2. Morgan Stanley's economic slowdown may be a reason for a rate cut in November

3. Institutions: The Bank of England may keep interest rates unchanged after GDP data is released

Related News

Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Brokerfor a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

market analysis

The US dollar index fluctuates, paying attention to "Tep Summit" and "terror data"

Analysis of major currencies

1. Becent denies pushing for interest rate cuts, indicating that the model shows that 150 basis points need to be lowered to reach neutral interest rates

2. Countdown to the "Tep Conference" Trump revealed more details of the meeting

3. The United States announced: temporary exemption of some sanctions against Russia

4. US Treasury Secretary Bescent: Please pay attention to drug tariffs

5. The Japanese economy grew beyond expectations under tariff pressure

Institutional View

1. www.xmh100.comBC: Potential Federal Reserve Chairman David Zervos supports a sharp rate cut

2. Morgan Stanley's economic slowdown may be a reason for a rate cut in November

3. Institutions: The Bank of England may keep interest rates unchanged after GDP data is released

Related News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason