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8.15 Gold rebounds are weak and crude oil fluctuates and rises today's market trend analysis and operation suggestions
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: 8.15 gold rebound is weak and crude oil fluctuates and rises today's market trend analysis and operation suggestions". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
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Analysis of the latest trend of gold:
Analysis of gold news: In the early trading of the Asian market on Friday (August 15), spot gold hovered near the nearly two-week low set overnight, trading around $3,333 per ounce. Gold prices suffered a heavy blow on Thursday, with spot gold falling 0.6% to $3335.25 per ounce, while futures gold closed down 0.7% at $3383.2. The latest economic data released by the United States is like a basin of cold water, extinguishing the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate cuts, resulting in a wave of selling of gold, a traditional safe-haven asset. In the short term, the technical signal will slightly turn short, the Federal Reserve expects to aggressive interest rate cuts to cool down, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is expected to end, and gold prices may continue to be under pressure, but in the medium and long term, uncertainty in the global economic and geopolitical situation will still provide support for gold. In addition, investors should also pay close attention to the upcoming U.S. core PCE data, Jackson Hall meeting and August employment reports, which willDetermines whether gold can regain its upward trend. This trading day will be released on the monthly rate of industrial output in the United States in July, the initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in August, the New York Fed Manufacturing Index in August and the monthly rate of retail sales in the United States in July (commonly known as "terrorist data"), and investors also need to pay attention to it.
Gold technical analysis: The medium-term gold idea, we maintain the view of the recent stage. The monthly line continues to cross the doji sideways, which means there is a change in the market, so all the pull-ups may be for shipments, and they are all preparing for a larger decline. For short-term, in the short term, we look at the 3330, 3315, 3300 and 3270 areas, and the ultimate goal is still between 3245 and 3150 and 3120 breaking to 3000-2950, and the relative tariffs rise. However, for the short term, it seems that it is time and position for long and short positions to draw their swords again. After two days of slow climb rebound after a sharp drop on Monday, we basically reached a key position. Whether it continues to rebound and encounters resistance and falls, or whether the rebound since 3330 has evolved into bulls and starts to rise, is our focus next. We believe that the current situation is still only a large-scale rebound; the rise of bulls is almost entirely due to the promotion of news. Once the news recedes or the strength of the favorable force weakens, bears must make efforts.
The Asian session was narrowly traded at 3342-3354 yesterday, and the European session broke through the range resistance of 3358 yesterday, breaking through yesterday's high point, then the US session will have a second pull-up; the top and bottom support is to focus on 3358 above, of course, the volatile market is easy to puncture, pay attention to the mid-track 3353 above, stabilize and continue to rebound bullishly, and the resistance target is 3370, and then pay attention to whether the node pressure is under pressure; if it breaks through again and stands above 3380, then this downward pullback ends, turns to a short-term strengthening, and continue to test the gains and losses of the 3400 mark; if it cannot break through, then there will be some time below 3380. Overall, in terms of today's short-term gold operation ideas, He Bosheng recommends that rebound short sellers should be the main focus, and pullbacks should be the auxiliary focus. The short-term focus on the 3350-3360 line of resistance above, and the short-term focus on the 3320-3310 line of support below.
The latest trend analysis of crude oil market:
Crude oil news analysis: On Thursday, international crude oil prices showed a slight fluctuation and fluctuation rise after the pullback on the previous trading day. Brent crude oil futures rose slightly by $0.03 to $66.15 per barrel, while U.S. WTI crude oil futures fell slightly by $0.03 to $63.14. The latest data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 1.52 million barrels last week, suggesting that the peak summer consumption season is approaching its end. Gasoline stocks fell, while distillate stocks rose slightly. Market insiders pointed out that if the data released by the EIA also shows that inventory rebounds, it will further confirm that refineries are gradually reducing operating rates. The peak of summer demand in the United States usually lasts from Memorial Day at the end of May to Labor Day in early September. The oil market is currently in a tug-of-war period of long and short forces. On the one hand, rising U.S. stocks and expectations of growth in output weakened price support; on the other hand, geopoliticalThe uncertainty of treatment still provides bottom support for oil prices. In the short term, we need to pay close attention to the results of the EIA inventory data and the US-Russia meeting, which will directly affect market sentiment and price fluctuations.
Crude oil technical analysis: From the daily chart level, the K-line closed the negative line for seven consecutive trading days, the oil price fell below the lower edge of the original oscillation range, and the medium-term subjective trend was downward. The moving average system has not yet formed a short arrangement, and the medium-term objective trend is in a conversion period. From the perspective of kinetic energy, the MACD indicator gradually penetrates the zero axis position, and the short kinetic energy gradually becomes stronger. It is expected that the medium-term trend of crude oil will turn downward. The short-term (1H) trend of crude oil continues to fluctuate and move downward, the moving average system is short-term, and the short-term objective trend direction is downward. In the early trading, oil prices hit a new low around 62.10, and weak fluctuations were consolidated. The MACD indicator is about to form a golden cross at the low level below the zero axis, and the short momentum performance is still dominant. It is expected that the crude oil trend will continue to fluctuate and fall downward during the day. Overall, in terms of today's operational ideas of crude oil, He Bosheng recommends that rebound high altitudes should be the main focus, and the retracement should be the low long as the auxiliary. The short-term focus should be on the 66.0-67.0 line resistance at the top, and the short-term focus should be on the 62.5-61.5 line support at the bottom.
This article is exclusively planned by gold crude oil analyst He Bosheng. Due to the delay in online push, the above content is personal advice. Because the online publication is timely and the suggestions in the article are for learning reference only, and the risks of operating based on this are at your own risk. No matter whether the views and strategies of the article are consistent with everyone's opinions, you can www.xmh100.come to me to discuss and learn together! There is nothing difficult in the world, I am afraid of those who are interested. Investment itself carries risks, reminding everyone to identify the authoritative platform and the strong teacher. Fund safety is the first priority, secondly, consider operational risks, and finally how to make a profit.
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