Oil prices hit two-week high, geopolitical hedging demand revives to support gold prices, US sanctions Russian crude oil companies

Basic news

On Friday (October 24, Beijing time), spot gold was trading around US$4,127 per ounce. On Thursday, the price of gold rose by more than 1% as the resurgence of geopolitical risks stimulated demand for safe havens. demand, and investors are preparing for key U.S. inflation data released on Friday; U.S. crude oil traded around $61.63 per barrel, with oil prices rising nearly 4% on Thursday, reaching their highest point in two weeks, after the United States imposed sanctions on Russia's major suppliers Rosneft and Lukoil.

Stock Markets

U.S. stocks rose on Thursday as investors weighed mixed corporate earnings reports and evolving geopolitical concerns. All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher, with the Nasdaq leading the gains driven by strength in technology stocks, but the small-cap Russell 2000 clearly outperformed.

Trump's announcement of sanctions against Rosneft marked a sharp shift in his policy of increasing pressure on Moscow over the war in Ukraine, exacerbating geopolitical strife and sending world oil prices soaring.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.31% to 46734.61 points; the S&P 500 Index rose 0.58% to 6738.43 points; the Nasdaq Index rose 0.89% to 22941.80 points. The third-quarter earnings season is in full swing.

Tesla’s stock price rebounded, rising 2.3%. The electric car maker's third-quarter profit missed expectations. The stock is the first among the "Big Seven" to release earnings reports. These seven huge market-cap momentum stocks collectively account for more than one-third of the S&P 500's market value.

IBM fell 0.9% afterThe www.xmh100.company reported slowdowns at its key cloud software unit, eclipsing a profit-beating forecast.

So far, just over a quarter of the www.xmh100.companies in the S&P 500 have announced third-quarter results. According to London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), 86% of these www.xmh100.companies beat expectations.

According to LSEG data, analysts now expect S&P 500 third-quarter earnings to grow 9.9% year-over-year, higher than the 8.8% growth forecast as of October 1.

In other earnings reports, health insurance www.xmh100.company Molina Healthcare plunged 17.5% after lowering its annual profit forecast.

Honeywell shares rose 6.8% after the www.xmh100.company raised its annual profit forecast due to strong aviation demand. American Airlines shares rose 5.6% after the airline raised its annual profit forecast; Southwest Airlines shares fell 6.3% despite unexpected quarterly profits and record quarterly sales.

T-Mobile fell 3.3%, although the www.xmh100.company's wireless subscriber additions exceeded analysts' expectations. Dow reported a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss as cost cuts and higher sales helped offset weaker chemical prices. The www.xmh100.company's stock price rose 13.0%.

Quantum www.xmh100.computing www.xmh100.company shares surged after the Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration was in talks to take stakes in several quantum www.xmh100.computing www.xmh100.companies in exchange for federal funds.

IonQ, D-Wave Quantum, Quantum www.xmh100.computing and Rigetti www.xmh100.computing rose between 7.1% and 13.8%.

Energy www.xmh100.companies were the biggest gainers among the S&P 500's 11 major sectors, rising 1.3%, boosted by a surge in crude oil prices after Trump imposed sanctions on Russian oil. Oil giants Exxon Mobil and Chevron rose 1.1% and 0.6% respectively.

Independent refiner Valero Energy rose 7.0% after reporting better-than-expected third-quarter profit.

Aerospace and defense stocks have benefited greatly over the past year from rising geopolitical unrest. The S&P 500 Aerospace & Defense Index rose 2.2%.

Gold Market

Gold prices rose more than 1% on Thursday after two consecutive sessions of losses, as renewed geopolitical risks spurred safe-haven demand and investors prepared for key U.S. inflation data due on Friday.

Spot gold was trading at $4,132.76 an ounce, up 1%, after falling to a nearly two-week low in the previous session. U.S. gold futures for December delivery closed 2% higher at $4,145.60 an ounce.

Gold hit a record high of $4,381.21 on Monday, but fell the most in five years on Tuesday. Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals, said the push for gold this year isAll the fundamental factors for the rally remain in place. Some investors made opportunistic purchases as prices pulled back, while rising trade and geopolitical tensions may also have contributed to today's buying.

Gold prices have risen about 57% this year, driven by geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, expectations of interest rate cuts and continued central bank buying.

U.S. President Trump on Wednesday imposed sanctions on Russia related to the Ukraine war for the first time in his second term, targeting Lukoil and Rosneft as his dissatisfaction with Russian President Vladimir Putin over the war has grown.

The U.S. government is also considering a plan to restrict exports of a range of software-driven products.

The focus now turns to Friday's U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which may be the clearest signal on inflation from the Federal Reserve ahead of next week's policy meeting. Data are expected to show core inflation held steady at 3.1% in September.

The market has priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week and another rate cut in December.

Spot silver rose 1.1% to $49.07 per ounce; platinum rose 0.5% to $1,629.44; palladium rose 0.4% to $1,453.90.

Oil Market

Oil prices surged nearly 4% on Thursday to their highest point in two weeks after the United States imposed sanctions on major Russian suppliers Rosneft and Lukoil over Russia's war in Ukraine, prompting Indian energy www.xmh100.companies to consider reducing Russian imports.

Brent crude oil futures rose 5.4% to close at $65.99 a barrel; U.S. crude oil rose 5.6% to close at $61.79. It was the largest one-day percentage gain for the two crude oil contracts since mid-June and the highest closing price since October 8.

David Oxley, chief climate and www.xmh100.commodities economist at Capital Economics, said that the U.S. announcement of sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil is a major escalation against the Russian energy industry, and its impact is enough to plunge the global oil market into a supply shortage next year. According to U.S. energy data, Russia will become the world's second-largest crude oil producer after the United States in 2024.

In addition to the surge in crude oil prices, U.S. diesel futures jumped nearly 7%, pushing the diesel crack spread to the highest since February 2024. Crack spreads measure refining margins.

SaxoBank analyst Ole Hansen said that U.S. sanctions mean refineries in China and India, the main buyers of Russian oil, will need to find alternative suppliers to avoid being excluded from the Western banking system.

Kuwait’s oil minister said on Thursday that OPEC is ready to increase crude output if necessary by further lifting production cuts to resolve the market after the United States imposed new sanctions on Russian oil giants.shortage problem.

However, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that it will take time for the global market to replace Russian oil.

Putin also said that Moscow will never succumb to pressure from the United States or any other foreign power, and warned that if targets deep within Russia are attacked militarily, there will be an "overwhelming" response.

Forex Markets

The dollar rose against the yen on Thursday as traders awaited U.S. consumer inflation data delayed until Friday and weighed the impact of new U.S. sanctions on Rosneft. The sanctions have boosted oil prices.

The U.S. dollar was last up 0.38% at 152.525 yen, while the U.S. dollar index, which measures the dollar's exchange rate against a basket of currencies, was almost flat at 98.925.

Although the U.S. government remains in a state of shutdown, the United States will still release inflation data to assist the Social Security Administration in its annual cost of living adjustment for 2026.

These data will remain closely watched even as the Fed's policy focus shifts from inflation to U.S. labor market conditions. Nick Rees, head of European macro analysis at Monex, said the data will be significant for slightly different reasons than usual. Obviously, the Fed has stopped paying attention to CPI, but we can still use the data to make some assumptions about consumer spending and growth.

Oil prices rose nearly 5% on Thursday due to new U.S. sanctions on major Russian suppliers Rosneft and Lukoil over Russia's war in Ukraine, which Britain also imposed sanctions on the www.xmh100.companies last week.

The U.S. Treasury Department called on Moscow to immediately agree to a ceasefire and expressed readiness to take further action.

Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets, said the new sanctions have put pressure on the yen and other currencies related to oil imports. He said: "Japan is a big oil importer, and rising oil prices are not good for it." Domestic factors have also put pressure on the yen, which is falling towards a seven-month low of 153.29 yen hit last week. This week, the yen once fell to a low of 153.29 yen after Sanae Takaichi, who is widely regarded as a fiscal and monetary dov, was elected as leader of Japan's ruling party. Now that Sanae Takaichi has taken office as prime minister, the market is awaiting details of the stimulus package.

Yutaka Miura, senior technical analyst at Mizuho Securities, said: "Buying based on the Sanae government's policy hopes has ended. The market now needs to evaluate specific policies and their feasibility."

Some European currencies also attracted some market attention on Thursday, with the Norwegian crown appreciating on rising oil prices. The dollar was last down 0.42% against the Norwegian currency at 9.9717 crowns, falling below the 10 crown level for the first time in two weeks, while the euro hit a month low at 11.568 crowns.

In terms of other currencies, the BritishThe pound fell 0.25% to $1.332, partially recouping losses caused by weaker-than-expected consumer inflation data on Wednesday. The data prompted markets to increase bets that the Bank of England will cut interest rates again this year.

EUR/USD was at $1.162, up 0.06%. The release of the minutes of the Swiss National Bank's first interest rate decision-making meeting had little impact on the Swiss franc, which weakened to 0.7949 Swiss francs per US dollar.

International News

Putin: The Budapest meeting with Trump is more likely to be rescheduled than canceled

On October 23, local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in an interview with the media that the new sanctions imposed by the United States on Russia are intended to put pressure on Russia, but will not have a major impact on the Russian economy. Putin said that in view of the current situation, the US president decided to cancel or postpone the meeting. More precisely, Trump said that the meeting was postponed. Putin reiterated that dialogue is always better than any form of confrontation and even better than war. Therefore, Russia has always advocated the proposal of dialogue, and this position has not changed to this day.

U.S. judges admitted that the use of artificial intelligence led to errors in court rulings

On October 23, local time, two federal judges responded to a question from U.S. Senate Judiciary www.xmh100.committee Chairman Chuck Grassley and admitted that the court order that Grassley criticized as "full of loopholes" was drafted by staff using artificial intelligence. In letters released by Grassley's office that day, Mississippi Judge Henry Wingate and New Jersey Judge Julian Xavier Niles said the rulings in the two cases did not go through the usual review process of their respective courts before being issued. The two judges said they had taken steps to improve how rulings are reviewed.

Lithuania said that two Russian aircraft briefly entered its airspace

On October 23, local time, the Lithuanian Ministry of Defense stated that two Russian aircraft entered the country’s airspace on the evening of the 23rd, so it mobilized two Spanish NATO fighter jets deployed in the country to take off and patrol the airspace. The Lithuanian Ministry of Defense said that two Russian aircraft entered Lithuanian airspace about 790 meters and flew for about 18 seconds. They may be conducting exercises in the Kaliningrad enclave. Russia has yet to respond.

EU leaders postponed until December a decision on whether to use Russia’s frozen assets to aid Ukraine

The EU postponed until December a decision on whether to use frozen Russian central bank assets to aid Ukraine after Belgium requested stronger guarantees to ensure that it would not be held liable for risks related to the 140 billion euro ($163 billion) loan. According to people familiar with the matter, EU leaders have asked the European www.xmh100.commission to draft several options for them to consider at the next summit, with the goal of reaching a final agreement before the end of the year.

The U.S. government is considering supporting the quantum www.xmh100.computing industry

Informed sources revealed that the Trump administration is in early-stage talks with quantum www.xmh100.computing www.xmh100.companies to discuss the possibility of providing potential financial support for this industry. quantumComputing is increasingly becoming one of the key areas of technology. U.S. www.xmh100.commerce Department officials are discussing with industry executives the possibility of using funds from the CHIP Act to support projects and www.xmh100.companies deemed critical to national security, sources said. It is reported that the talks are still at a preliminary stage and any detailed discussions on financing or equity investment are premature. People familiar with the matter said the Trump administration has said it needs some form of return if it provides financial support. Although specific details were not disclosed, they mentioned the government's previous agreement with Intel as a possible reference model.

U.S. Transportation Secretary: If the government "shutdown" continues, there will be more flight delays and cancellations

On October 23, local time, U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy warned that as the government "shutdown" continues, more flight delays and cancellations may occur in the United States. It is reported that during the government shutdown, approximately 13,000 air traffic controllers and approximately 50,000 Transportation Security Administration officers in the United States must work without pay. Duffy said last week that air traffic controller absences accounted for 53% of delays since the government shutdown, www.xmh100.compared with only 5% under normal circumstances. Currently, the "suspension" of the U.S. federal government has entered its fourth week. The negative impact of the "suspension" on all aspects of society has been further highlighted. Especially in the aviation field, manpower shortages have led to serious flight delays and some airports have suspended operations, triggering concerns about aviation safety from all walks of life.

Report: Trump warned Israel not to annex the West Bank "or it will lose all support from the United States"

"This (Israeli annexation of the West Bank) will not happen because I have made a www.xmh100.commitment to the Arab countries. If it does happen, Israel will lose all support from the United States." - US President Trump said this in an interview with Time magazine recently.

Advancing the energy expansion plan, the U.S. government plans to open up oil and gas exploration in coastal and Alaska protected areas

On October 23, local time, a reporter from the main station learned that the U.S. government is advancing an energy expansion plan and is preparing to open almost all U.S. coastal waters and the coastal plains of Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) for new oil and gas exploration. U.S. media reported that the move triggered opposition from many state governors and environmental groups, concerned that the risk of oil spills could endanger coastal economies that rely on tourism.

Domestic News

The www.xmh100.communique of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central www.xmh100.committee: Insist on focusing on the real economy to promote high-quality and efficient development of the service industry

The plenary session proposed to build a modern industrial system and consolidate and strengthen the foundation of the real economy. We must insist on focusing our economic development on the real economy, adhere to the direction of intelligence, greenness, and integration, accelerate the construction of a manufacturing, quality, aerospace, transportation, and network power, maintain a reasonable proportion of manufacturing, and build a modern industrial system with advanced manufacturing as the backbone. It is necessary to optimize and upgrade traditional industries, cultivate and strengthen emerging industries and future industries, and promote the service industry.Develop with high quality and efficiency and build a modern infrastructure system.

The number of applications for car trade-in subsidies nationwide in 2025 has exceeded 10 million.

We learned from the Ministry of www.xmh100.commerce that as of October 22, the number of applications for car trade-in subsidies in 2025 has exceeded 10 million, of which more than 3.4 million were for vehicle scrapping and renewal, and more than 6.6 million were for replacement and renewal. The car trade-in policy effectively promotes green transformation. In 2025, new energy vehicles will account for 57.2% of the old-for-new vehicles, driving the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles from January to September to grow by 24.4% year-on-year, with a market penetration rate of 52.1%; in September, the market penetration rate reached 57.8%, achieving seven consecutive increases. At the same time, the level of resource recycling is also constantly improving. In the first three quarters of this year, 7.345 million scrapped cars were recycled, a year-on-year increase of 47.9%. According to estimates by relevant agencies, a total of about 7.1 million tons of steel, 920,000 tons of aluminum, and 930,000 tons of plastics can be recycled, promoting carbon reduction of more than 21 million tons.

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