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Japan's narrowing trade deficit boosts the yen, and the dollar remains high and volatile against the yen

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: Japan's narrowing trade deficit boosts the Japanese yen, and the U.S. dollar maintains high volatility against the Japanese yen." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

Japanese trade data boosts the yen. Data released by Japan's Ministry of Finance showed that the trade deficit in September was 234.6 billion yen, slightly lower than August's 242.8 billion yen, but still far below market expectations of a surplus of 22 billion yen.

Exports increased by 4.2% year-on-year, the first rebound since April, but slightly lower than the expected 4.6%; imports increased by 3.3%, a three-month high, exceeding market expectations of a 0.6% increase. These data indicate that Japan's economic activity is picking up, supporting the appreciation of the yen.

Political factors also provide support for the yen. Japan's first female Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae took office and promised to strengthen economic and defense capabilities and improve relations with the United States, which will enhance market confidence in the yen in the short term.

Institutional view: According to market surveys, 64/67 economists expect Japan’s policy interest rate to remain at 0.75% by March 2026, of which about 60% expect to raise interest rates by 25 basis points this quarter.

The U.S. dollar is under pressure from the U.S. government shutdown and policy uncertainty. The U.S. government shutdown has entered its fourth week. The Senate has repeatedly failed to pass appropriation bills. The release of economic data has been blocked. Investors are increasingly uncertain about the Fed's policy and the outlook for the dollar.

Fed fund futures show that the market is almost www.xmh100.completely pricing in a 25 basis point interest rate cut in October, and the possibility of another 25 basis point cut in December is as high as 98%.

Expert opinion: Musalem, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said that if employment risks increase and inflation is controllable, he supports further interest rate cuts and emphasized the need to adopt a balanced strategy. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell also pointed out that due to the impact of the government shutdown on economic data, the lowRapid job growth could further weaken the economy.

The USD/JPY daily chart shows that despite the short-term decline to about 151.70, it still remains within the upward channel. The initial resistance above is at the 8-month high of 153.27, and further resistance will focus on the upper edge of the channel at 156.90. The lower support level focuses on the 9-day EMA of 151.20.

If it fails, it may test the lower edge of the channel at 150.00 and the 50-day EMA of 149.16. A further break below may trigger a bearish pattern, reaching a monthly low of 146.59. MACD is weak in the short term, RSI has fallen back to neutral levels, and short-term shocks are weak, but the medium-term upward channel has not been destroyed.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: Japan's narrowing trade deficit boosts the Japanese yen, and the U.S. dollar maintains high fluctuations against the Japanese yen". It is carefully www.xmh100.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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Japan's narrowing trade deficit boosts the yen, and the dollar remains high and volatile against the yen

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